"Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence."
John Adams
(1735-1826)
Jeremy Jacobs writes, in The Hill, about what some Democrats are seeing as an electoral opening for them here in Texas in 2010.
The alleged opening is in the 10th Congressional District, which lies between the cities of Austin and Houston. Jacobs reports that Texas Democrats believe the district has been "trending blue" — to employ the godawful shorthand in which Democratic states/districts are described as "blue," in keeping with the color coding that has been used in presidential elections since the infamous Bush–Gore campaign of 2000.This belief appears to be based on recent reports that Democratic businessman Jack McDonald raised more than $300,000 "even though he has yet to officially announce he is running."
A party insider apparently told Jacobs that the 10th is "the most Democratic of all the Texas districts that is not already held by a Democrat."
Really?
Truthfully, the 10th has been represented by Democrats in the past. During Franklin Roosevelt's presidency, it was represented by Lyndon Johnson, who was succeeded by friends and backers Homer Thornberry and Jake Pickle. When Pickle retired, he was succeeded by another Democrat, Lloyd Doggett, who withstood the Republican tide of 1994, beating a black Republican by a solid but far from overwhelming margin.
Doggett represented the district for the next 10 years, but new congressional boundaries forced him to run in a different district in 2004. Enter Republican Michael McCaul, who cruised to victory over two opponents (a Libertarian and a write–in), then survived the Democratic years of 2006 and 2008 with around 54% of the vote.
In the last quarter of the 20th century, the 10th supported Democratic presidential candidates two–thirds of the time, only breaking ranks to support Ronald Reagan's presidential bids in 1980 and 1984.
But, as the saying goes, that was then and this is now.
To put it more bluntly, that was before 2000. The 10th voted for George W. Bush overwhelmingly both times. Even though John McCain's share of the vote in the 10th was below that, he still carried the district, and, with the redistricting that took place earlier in this decade, the 10th has a stronger Republican presence than it had before Bush became president.
Democrats say the demographics are changing in the 10th district, but I would refer you to a description of the district in the "2008 Almanac of American Politics:"
"It is split into three roughly equal parts. The largest of these is in Austin and Travis County, where the district includes the northern third of Austin, with one tentacle reaching southwest beyond the city limits and another dropping south to Austin State Hospital ... The second largest is the western edge of Houston's Harris County, '21st century suburban America in its most common and oft–replicated form,' sniffed the Austin American–Statesman. This is a fast–growing area, with lots of young families, new subdivisions and sparkling megachurches. In between are the six lightly populated rural counties, some of which surprisingly enough have historic Republican voting traditions. Overall this is a heavily Republican district — and one of the fastest–growing in the state between 2000 and 2005."
I am reminded of a scene from the classic film "Gone With the Wind," in which the Southerners assembled at Ashley Wilkes' plantation, in preparing for the coming war, boasted that "gentlemen always fight better than rabble" and "one Southerner can lick 20 Yankees."
But they dismissed Rhett Butler's warning: "It's hard winning a war with words." When asked to explain himself, Butler observed that "There's not a cannon factory in the whole South."
His colleagues protested: "What difference does that make to a gentleman?"
"It's going to make a great deal of difference to a great many gentlemen," he replied.
The bottom line — it's fine that McDonald has been so successful raising money.
But it's going to take more than dollars to "flip" the 10th, even if it was represented by Democrats for many years in Congress.
It will help if the Democrats have a record of positive achievement on which to run — but that is something they do not have yet. They've passed the stimulus package and the 2010 budget, but they have nothing to show for it thus far.
And the Republicans have the advantage when it comes to existing party apparatus.
Unless something unforeseen happens, McCaul and the Republicans will be better positioned to win this war.
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