Job One

When I was growing up, I remember my father telling me he believed the best thing about America was that the right person always came along to provide the leadership the nation needed at the time it needed it.

Dad isn't a classic historian. He taught religion and philosophy at one of the local colleges (there were three) in my rather small hometown so, certainly, biblical history was part of his courses. And he did study history in general to a certain extent — and on certain sub–topics that were of interest to him — but he has never been the go–to guy to put things into historical perspective.

Nevertheless, I had to admit that he was right. America's had its share of incompetent leaders in the last two centuries, but, when the chips have really been down, usually someone steps forward — Washington, Jefferson, Jackson, Lincoln, the Roosevelts — to keep the country from veering too far off the path.

Kind of smacks of predestination or manifest destiny, doesn't it? Well, maybe it is a variation on the theme of American exceptionalism, but I think that, given our history, Americans have earned the right to see themselves as exceptional.

You can always find scabs to pick at in American history. This nation isn't perfect. It is a work in progress. We acknowledged that from the beginning, yet we asserted our exceptionalism, in the preamble to the Constitution, when we spoke of seeking to be a more perfect Union.

(Barack Obama used this phrase himself in a speech during the 2008 campaign. You may remember it. It was given amid the controversy brought on by Rev. Jeremiah Wright's infamous "God damn America" remarks.)

It is a nation that was founded on faith. Even if a person has no real religious faith, most Americans do have faith in their country and the concept of limitless opportunity here. We have tried — not always successfully but we have tried — to change those things about ourselves that are contrary to our lofty self–image.

That faith has been severely challenged in the last four or five years by an economic crisis unlike any since the Great Depression. For a president who was elected on the strength of voters' belief in hope and change, it can be staggering when you talk to those who have completely given up hope during his tenure.

Their ranks are likely to swell, I am afraid, with today's jobs report. The economy did add 163,000 jobs in July, and the average monthly jobs gain in 2012 has been 151,000, which is adequate to keep up with population growth, observes Christopher Rugaber of the Associated Press, but it isn't enough to bring unemployment down.

And that was really Obama's mission when he was elected. He made a lot of other promises to a lot of other groups, but the economy and joblessness were the two dark clouds that hung over the Republican–held White House and truly made it possible for a black man with limited political experience to be elected president by an electoral vote landslide.

Until that implosion, the race was neck and neck. Many Democrats openly wondered if Obama had made a mistake in picking Joe Biden as his running mate. Hillary Clinton would have united the party, many said.

The economy's implosion was a very recent development when voters went to the polls in November 2008. It certainly wasn't the reason that either Obama or John McCain got into the race to begin with, but righting the economic ship had become the #1 concern that September.

That hasn't happened, and a recent Gallup poll shows voters want the next president to make the economy and job creation his top — if not sole — priority.

Indeed,through most of Obama's presidency, poll after poll has indicated that it is still voters' top concern. But good news from the Labor Department has been rare. In fact, the unemployment rate went up — to 8.3% — in today's report.

Which puts the president in a position — historically — that makes his re–election prospects seem weaker each day.

With about three months left before the election, Barack Obama faces some pretty steep historical mountains to climb — and not much time to conquer them.

The most ominous is the fact that, when the unemployment rate has been 7% or higher on Election Day, practically no incumbent presidents have won. Ronald Reagan, in 1984, was an exception, but Reagan had a steadily improving economy working in his favor. Obama doesn't have that.

Conventional wisdom also holds that, if a president's approval ratings are below 50% on Election Day, that president is toast. This president, who entered office with three of every five Americans approving (when, technically, there was nothing to approve), hasn't received the consistent approval of a majority of respondents in more than a year.

Recent polls show Obama's approval in the 40s, and today's jobs report isn't likely to help.

Another rule of thumb is that right track/wrong track question that pollsters ask. Essentially, voters are asked if they think the country is on the right track or the wrong track. When the majority say the wrong track, that isn't a good sign for the incumbent.

The latest poll results I have seen on that question were reported by Rasmussen Reports. Only 29% of respondents said the country was heading in the right direction.

(The good news in that for Obama is that the number is up from this time last year, when only 14% believed the country was going in the right direction.)

Rasmussen's figure is a little lower than the others I have seen, which are typically in the 30–36% range, but even the most positive of them has no good news for the administration.

The other truism of American politics has to do with personal income. People vote their wallets. I have always believed it is the reason why Reagan's question at the end of his debate with Jimmy Carter — "Are you better off now than you were four years ago?" — resonated the way it did.

Personal income is a little harder to boil down into easily digestible numbers, like the unemployment rate, presidential job approval and right track/wrong track, but the Commerce Department reported recently that personal income was up modestly in June. A troubling side note was the decline in personal spending; in a consumer–based economy, that is definitely not a good sign.

Those four historical factors — frequently cited by historians, pollsters and political scientists as the most reliable predictors of an election's outcome — are all working against the incumbent.

And it doesn't seem likely to me that he can reverse those trends in three months.

The Age of Miracles

My father had a heart attack on Sunday.

There was a time in my life when a heart attack or a diagnosis of cancer was the same as a death sentence.

But, in my lifetime, I have seen so many conditions that conventional wisdom once regarded as terminal reduced to survivable by the march of medical science.

My father is a prime example of that.

He had his heart attack on Sunday. On Tuesday, he had bypass surgery, after which he was taken to intensive care, which is SOP. Tonight, he is in his room — apparently, he's been sleeping all day — and his doctor has said he could be released and sent home as soon as Saturday.

It really wasn't so long ago that even if a person had what was considered a mild heart attack, he or she could expect to spend weeks in the hospital before being allowed to go home.

The thought that my father could be home a week to the day after his heart attack astonishes me. For that matter, it astonished me when I listened to Dad's surgeon talking to him about his upcoming bypass surgery on Monday night. He was so nonchalant about it — as if he was talking about taking out Dad's tonsils.

It is truly a miraculous time in which we live.

When I was a child, I used to watch The Jetsons on Saturday mornings. There was a time when it was probably my very favorite cartoon, the one I absolutely would never miss, and much of the attraction, I suppose, was the glimpse into the future that it supposedly offered.

We haven't achieved most of the things The Jetsons told us were in our future. There are no flying cars yet, and the household appliances I saw on The Jetsons still are far more impressive than anything in the 21st century — so far.

I don't recall if The Jetsons ever mentioned medical advances, but it's hard to imagine their world being more advanced than our own. (In fact, I believe the show was set in the year 2062.)

For that matter, I have heard of miracles in biblical times all my life. If they happened, though, it was way before my time.

But I have borne witness to all the medical miracles of our time.

And I have a lot of gratitude for that right now.

Happy Birthday, Dad

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My brother and my father on Father's Day.

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Actually, this is a little early. Dad's birthday isn't today. His birthday is on Saturday.

But my father and my stepmother will be out of town on his birthday. In fact, they will be out of town most of this month.

Saturday will be a milestone in his life. My father will be 80 on that day. I wish I could share it with him, but I can't so this will have to do.

I guess fatherhood came to him later in life than it does for most. I don't know if that made him a better father than the fathers of the kids I knew when I was growing up. That is probably a matter of opinion — and personal perspective.

I remember once, when he and I were having dinner, somehow our conversation turned to the subject of my childhood, and he apologized for not having been around more when I was a kid. I don't remember exactly how I phrased my response, but I tried to reassure him that it hadn't seemed unusual to me or that I had been deprived in any way. It was just the way it was.

I'm no child psychologist, but I think that most children believe that whatever is normal in their households is what is normal. Depending on the household, that may be a good thing or it may be a bad thing.

In my household, my father was a college professor. What I remember of my preschool years is that Dad was gone when I got up in the mornings and he usually hadn't returned when I went to bed at night. My mother was a stay–at–home mom when my brother and I were small, and she was the one who was there for all the typical childhood events.

Actually, that seemed to be the norm in most of my friends' homes. Fathers went to work, mothers stayed home. It was a time when one parent (typically, the father) could support the family and the other parent (typically, the mother) could stay home and put bandages on skinned knees when not cleaning the house or cooking the meals.

We weren't wealthy. But we never lacked for anything we needed. We had clothes to wear, food on the table and a roof over our heads. And my father made that possible.

Maybe he feels wistful at times when his thoughts turn to things he missed, but I never think of times when I was 6 or 7 and he was absent. I know that he did what men of his generation were expected to do — provide for their families.

And he and my mother made our home a happy one. I can't recall a time when they fought over anything. I remember seeing the parents of some of my other friends get into loud arguments, and I was truly bewildered by the sight. It was so alien to my personal experience.

My parents were human, of course, and I'm sure there were times when they disagreed about some things. But, if they ever got into shouting matches in front of my brother or me, I must have conveniently repressed that memory.

In my experience, it hasn't been easy for men of my generation to communicate with their fathers, and I guess that has been true of my father and me. I had more heart–to–heart conversations with my mother than I did with my father when I was growing up — far more. One of my last memories of my mother is of a conversation I had with her about a problem I was having. I have seldom — if ever — had the same kind of conversation with my father.

Well, I miss my mother very much. Words never seem adequate to express how much. But I'm glad I still have my father.

Happy birthday (a little early), Dad. I love you. And I hope you have a great time on your trip.