Showing posts with label Cuba. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cuba. Show all posts

Monday, October 15, 2012

The Dawn of the Cuban Missile Crisis



President Barack Obama and former Gov. Mitt Romney will meet in their second debate tomorrow night.

It will follow a "town hall" format in which members of an audience made up entirely of undecided voters will ask the questions. I suppose the general idea is that the audience will ask the questions that are of the most concern for undecided voters, which should be instructive.

In fact, it should be interesting, but I kind of wish tomorrow night's debate was the one on foreign policy instead. It would be much more appropriate, given that half a century ago today, the Central Intelligence Agency's National Photographic Interpretation Center identified what it believed to be missiles in surveillance photos of Cuba.

The State department was notified that evening, as was Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara. National Security adviser McGeorge Bundy decided not to inform President Kennedy until the next day.

Consequently, on the evening of Oct. 16, after confirming to his satisfaction that the photographs did indeed reveal the presence of missile sites in Cuba, Kennedy called the first meeting of what came to be known as the Executive Committee of the National Security Council (EXCOMM) — the nine members of the National Security Council and five other advisers.

It is almost a cliche now to say that the Cuban Missile Crisis — which really can be said to have begun 50 years ago today because that is when the Photographic Interpretation Center first spotted missiles in Cuba although the president wasn't informed until the following day — is the closest the world has come to a nuclear war.

But there is certainly a lot of truth behind that assertion.

I suppose it seems anticlimactic to people who study that period in school today. Heck, it seemed anticlimactic to me when I studied it, and I can only imagine how it must seem to young people in 2012. When historic events are studied, it always seems the outcome was inevitable.

But the men who participated in the Cuban Missile Crisis did not know how the situation would play out, and it was in large part because of the lessons that were learned 50 years ago that the leaders of the larger governments of the world forged foreign policies that showed the proper respect for the truly awesome power that had been unleashed at the end of World War II.

They had stared into the abyss, to use language and imagery that became fashionable after the fact, and had resolved to do whatever was necessary to avoid a similar confrontation in the future.

It quickly became conventional wisdom that Harry Truman's decision to drop the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved hundreds of thousands of lives because Japan promptly surrendered, sparing the Americans and their allies from a possibly prolonged invasion of Japan.

And, if the reports that the Nazis were on the brink of developing nuclear weapons and the Americans beat them to it are correct, then perhaps it is a good thing that the genie was let out of the bottle.

It was not a good thing that tens of thousands of civilians were killed on both occasions — but perhaps those sacrifices were necessary to impress upon those who had unleashed the power exactly how mighty was the power they held in their hands.

But the issue was not resolved in 1945. After the end of the war, the United States, the world's only nuclear power, chose to disarm, naively believing that merely having the most destructive weapon known to mankind would be enough to prevent acts of aggression.

America, to put it mildly, was caught with its pants down when it was revealed that the Soviet Union had developed the technology for assembling nuclear weapons.

Although most nations appear to recognize and respect nuclear power — and, to be fair, the world has seen no nuclear attacks in more than 65 years — the threat is very much with us today — in the form of terrorists who only want enough nuclear material to spread fear from sea to shining sea.

Reducing cities to piles of rubble is not in their plans — as far as we know.

Perhaps the greatest problem EXCOMM faced when it met for the first time 50 years ago tomorrow was that American naivete had backfired again. In spite of the fact that we had been involved in a Cold War since before the revelation that the Soviet Union had nuclear weapons, the Americans foolishly believed the Russians would never put missiles in Cuba.

So, when the Russians did put missiles in Cuba, EXCOMM and Kennedy had to decide how to respond. There was no plan in place for such a situation.

For awhile, some members of EXCOMM probably felt that an invasion of Cuba was inevitable. The advocates of an invasion told Kennedy — forcefully — they believed the Soviets would do nothing in retaliation. Kennedy disagreed.

"If [the Russians] don't take action in Cuba," Kennedy reportedly said, "they certainly will in Berlin."

Fifty years ago, cooler heads prevailed. While diplomatic discussions, both formal and informal, went on, the Americans opted for a blockade in which the Navy would block any more shipments of missiles to Cuba.

Thankfully, things worked out in 1962. And one of the biggest reasons why things did work out was because Kennedy trusted the people of America enough to be honest with them about what was happening and what the risks were.

His actions were not guided by his memories of failure at the Bay of Pigs the year before.

But here we are, more than a month after four Americans were slain in a clearly coordinated attack on the U.S. embassy in Libya — and it is hard to tell if America has any friends left in the Middle East.

It is hard to tell because we get so much conflicting information from the administration that was going to be the most transparent in our history.

Even after the whopper that a video allegedly sparked a spontaneous demonstration that (allegedly) got out of hand had been discredited, U.N. ambassador Susan Rice continued to insist that it was true, as did the president.

My guess is that political considerations have been key factors in deciding what the president will or will not tell the American people — but I don't know that for certain. I'm simply acting on the old "If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck ..." rule of thumb.

I do know that jobs and the economy make everything else pale in comparison in this campaign, but I'd like to think that someone from the audience of undecided voters will ask the candidates about Libya and the four Americans who died there on the 11th anniversary of 9–11.

Sunday, April 17, 2011

Fifty Years After the Bay of Pigs



It was 50 years ago today that the ill–fated Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba was launched.

A bunch of Cuban exiles, who had been trained by the CIA, attempted to overthrow Fidel Castro in a plan that had been hatched in the last year of Dwight Eisenhower's presidency. In the spring and summer of 1960, while John F. Kennedy was wrapping up the Democratic presidential nomination and Richard Nixon was doing the same on the Republican side, the CIA recruited and trained anti–Castro exiles in south Florida.

Kennedy, I have heard, was not told of the plan until sometime in July 1960. As Ike's vice president, I presume Nixon already knew of it — but the relationships between presidents and their vice presidents were much different then than they are now so Nixon may well have been as much in the dark as Kennedy.

Yet the final decision rested with Kennedy, who ultimately approved the plan even if he wasn't as well informed as he would have liked, and it was carried out 50 years ago today. When it failed, some critics blamed the absence of adequate air cover. Others said the invasion never should have occurred at all.

Kennedy didn't blame the previous administration, although it always seemed to me he had a legitimate case for doing so.

Instead, he took responsibility, observing, "Victory has a hundred fathers, and defeat is an orphan."

That was not the end of it. The cumulative effect of the Bay of Pigs and other operations undoubtedly played a role in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Castro became more paranoid about U.S. attempts to overthrow his government, and Cuba entered into a partnership with the Soviets, building the bases that would house the missiles.

That event required delicate negotiations before it was finally resolved in the United States' favor.

What began today definitely did not end in America's favor — and, I suppose, whether what has happened in the last half–century has been to America's benefit is a matter of opinion.

Cuba, after all, still exists. The men who invaded the Bay of Pigs on this day 50 years ago failed in their mission, and most paid for that with their lives — some right away, others after lengthy captivity.

But Cuba's former communist ally, the Soviet Union, no longer exists. Someday in the future, some (or all) of the small countries that once formed the Soviet Union may re–group — but today (and for the last two decades) that menacing presence half a world away that forced generations of Americans to go through "duck and cover" drills in their elementary schools is not there anymore.

There have been other changes since the invasion.

Michael Vasquez of the Miami Herald observes that Miami's St. Thomas University came into existence because the Universidad Santo Tomas de Villanueva in Havana closed down the day of the invasion.

Back in Havana, ABC News reports, the emphasis is on how the tiny island of Cuba stood up to the big, bad United States — and has continued to do so for half a century.

Prensa Latina, Cuba's official news agency, says the "mercenary aggression" at the Bay of Pigs exposed American "lies" for what they were.

Outside of Cuba and south Florida, though, I haven't heard of much being said on this occasion. Communism long ago stopped being perceived as a global threat, and modern attention is on Islam and the Middle East, dirty bombs (not missiles).

I'm not really sure what to make of that. Does what happened at the Bay of Pigs on this day in 1961 have any meaning anymore?

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

What a Difference a Day Makes ...



... in the life of a hurricane.

About 24 hours ago, I was looking at the projected path of Hurricane Ike, which had crossed over Cuba and was hovering over the Caribbean.

As expected, Ike had weakened into a tropical storm during its time on land, but it has shown a tendency to regroup when it gets over water. And it became a hurricane again over those Caribbean waters.

Anyway, at that time, it was expected to make landfall again sometime this afternoon, cross Cuba again, perhaps weakening to a tropical storm again while on land, and then head out to sea, into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where it would strengthen into a significant hurricane, maintaining a west-northwest trajectory.

That projection model took Ike's path to the Galveston area, spreading rain over most of Louisiana and half of Texas by the end of the week.

But the unpredictable nature of hurricanes has shown itself in the last 24 hours.

Ike has proceeded across Cuba again, as expected, but its latest projected path takes it more to the west and less to the northwest.

It barely qualified as a hurricane when it hit Cuba for the second time, but it hadn't spent much time over water before making landfall again.

When it emerges from Cuba, it will have the entire Gulf of Mexico to feed its ravenous appetite.

And that could mean that Ike will be a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall again — wherever that might be. As this storm has demonstrated, long-term projections for hurricanes are virtually useless, and the National Hurricane Center says Ike could make landfall anywhere from northern Mexico to the Texas-Louisiana border.

For awhile Louisiana was out of the picture for significant rainfall, according to the projection, while most of Texas was going to get some rain from Ike.

And the hurricane was expected to make landfall south of Corpus Christi, Texas, instead of near Galveston — which is nearly 200 miles north of Corpus Christi.

But the late afternoon projection today now calls for Ike to make a sudden turn to the right while it's still in the Gulf (its projected path is becoming weirdly reminiscent of Kevin Costner's description of the zig-zag path of the "magic bullet" in "JFK") and may now make landfall near Galveston after all.

And the projection now calls for western Louisiana to see some rain this weekend, along with nearly all of Texas and all of Oklahoma. Western Arkansas should also see some rain, according to the latest projection.

Keep your eyes on this one. It could still do just about anything.

Monday, September 8, 2008

What Will Be Hurricane Ike's Next Move?



Hurricane Ike made landfall on the island of Cuba and weakened to a Category 1 storm, but its present projected path would take it back over water before long.

And, in Ike's brief but potent existence, the storm has shown a tendency to intensify when it's over water.

It's still far too early to tell what the storm may do. Its current path would take it to the Texas coast, possibly the Galveston area.

But the path could change once the storm begins its trek across the Gulf of Mexico.

The Galveston County Daily News isn't sounding any alarms yet — but it's wisely monitoring the storm's progress.

At this point, that's about all anyone can do.

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Hurricane Ike Makes Landfall in Cuba

Hurricane Ike made landfall in Cuba today, and its projected path appears to lead it across the entire island.

After that, it's anyone's guess what it will do. The projected path takes Ike into the Gulf of Mexico, where projections seem to take it west of New Orleans.

But hurricanes can do funny things. At 7 p.m. Central time, the hurricane had sustained winds of 120 miles an hour with higher gusts. It was moving in a westward direction at about 14 miles an hour.

Once the hurricane passes over Cuba and gets into the open Gulf waters, there's no telling what will happen, although the projections call for it to continue moving in a west-northwest direction.

If you live along the Gulf, especially in Texas or Louisiana, keep your eyes on this storm. At the very least, it looks capable of dumping a lot of rain in your area before the end of the week.

There may also be some heavy rain in southern Mississippi and Alabama.

Saturday, September 6, 2008

There's Nothing to Like About Ike



Tonight, Hurricane Ike is continuing its westerly trip through the Caribbean corridor between the tip of south Florida and Cuba.

Tourists and residents of the Florida Keys were told today to pack up and leave. They would be wise to heed the directive. At last report from CNN, Hurricane Ike has been upgraded to a Category 4 with maximum sustained winds of 135 miles an hour.

Based on the latest projections, it's going to come much too close to south Florida for comfort.

Cities like New Orleans and Galveston, Texas, that lie along the coastline of the Gulf of Mexico aren't off the hook. At this point, it's hard to tell what Ike will do once it passes Cuba and Florida.

Coastal officials should keep their eyes on the situation. And remember the old English proverb — Discretion is the better part of valour.