Political News in Texas

It's an unusually busy news day here in Texas — with unusual news.

The 2008 elections were held exactly a month ago. Today, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison took the first legally required step that must be taken for her to seek the Republican nomination for governor in 2010 — which will be precisely 20 years since Ann Richards was elected governor.

Today, Hutchison established an exploratory committee. If she runs for governor, as expected, she will face the incumbent, Gov. Rick Perry, in the Republican primary. Perry was lieutenant governor when George W. Bush was elected president and became governor when Bush left for Washington. Perry was elected to full four-year terms in 2002 and 2006.

In other news, Candy Evans of D Magazine confirms the address where George W. and Laura Bush will live after they leave the White House next month. It's an address in the affluent Preston Hollow section of Dallas.

Evans presents a compelling case.

And, while it is hardly news to suggest that Richard Nixon and his associates weren't above manipulating events to suit their political purposes, nevertheless today we have a report from the Associated Press stating that President Lyndon Johnson, in recorded telephone conversations during the final months of his presidency, "voiced worry over the Vietnam peace talks and stridently suggested that associates of Richard Nixon were attempting to keep South Vietnam away from the table until after the 1968 election."

Clues About the GOP Running Mate?

I presume that, within 24 hours, we'll know who John McCain has chosen as his running mate.

There's a certain amount of pressure being applied by interest groups as the deadline gets closer.

For example, the Washington Post says that "[c]hoosing [Joe] Lieberman or someone else who supports abortion rights, such as former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, would be risky for a candidate who has worked hard to rally conservatives to his side, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

"The survey indicates that 20% of McCain's supporters would be less likely to vote for him if he selects a running mate who supports abortion rights."

A friend of mine was telling me that anyone who votes on the basis of a single issue (like abortion, for example) shouldn't be allowed to vote.

I'm inclined to agree with him — except that, in a democracy, everyone has the privilege of voting — and using whatever information he/she wishes. It does not depend on the individual doing the responsible thing and studying the issues and each candidate's opinions on those issues.

And that's part of what makes it hard to predict what McCain is going to do.

Clearly, McCain doesn't want to alienate part of his political base. Especially if the race is as close as it appears to be.

From that standpoint, one would expect him to choose a pro-life conservative. (I wonder. Does Romney — an habitual flip-flopper — qualify as a pro-life conservative? Not too long ago, he was pro-choice.)

But if what matters the most to McCain is the Iraq War and the global war on terrorism — and a candidate's views on domestic issues don't matter to him (nor does it matter if McCain's running mate "could be someone who voted against the confirmations of conservative Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel A. Alito Jr.") — I could see McCain choosing someone with whom he feels comfortable — like Lieberman or Ridge.

Frankly, I don't know which McCain will make this decision.

Will it be the principled maverick who ran against George W. Bush in 2000?

Or will it be the pandering McCain of 2008, who was last seen in public at Saddleback a couple of weeks ago?

There's a lot of speculation about McCain's running mate — although not nearly as much as there was when Barack Obama was about to introduce Joe Biden as his choice last Saturday.

But many people think they're finding clues in seemingly little things.

• Michael Shear reports, for the Washington Post, that the so-called "Veep Watch" is on "high alert" for clues to the identity of McCain's running mate-to-be.
  
  "The top possibilities continued to be former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and ... Lieberman," he writes. "Other names included ... Ridge and Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison.
  
  "One senior Republican who has talked personally with Romney, Ridge and Pawlenty during the past two days said none of them had been told yet by McCain. 'All of them believe that it's not them,' the GOP source said."


• The Bipartisan Rules blog says "Pawlenty looks to be a much better choice at this stage of the game than does Romney."
  
  The blog lists several "compelling reasons" to choose Pawlenty.
  
  
  1. "Pawlenty has been in McCain's corner ever since McCain announced his candidacy; Romney has been a supporter for about four months."
  
  
  2. "Pawlenty is a true-blue conservative; Romney is a flip-flopper."
  
  
  3. "Pawlenty is a fresh face and 47; Romney is not and is in his early 60s."
  
  
  4. "Pawlenty offers McCain a clear electoral advantage; Romney's advantage in Michigan and the mountain west is somewhat speculative."
  
  
• Marc Ambinder's blog at The Atlantic is reporting that Pawlenty's schedule for Friday has been cleared.
  
  Is that an indication that Pawlenty is preparing to appear with McCain as the designated running mate?
  
  Perhaps.
  
  But, as Ambinder points out, "McCain's campaign could have made similar requests of other candidates. But Pawlenty's is the first we know about."
  
  I would add to that one more thing — it's nearly 10 p.m. here in the Central time zone, and I have seen no similar reports about any of the other prospects.


• "If security sweeps are the giveaway," writes David Drucker in Roll Call, "Romney may be on the brink of being selected as ... McCain’s ... vice presidential running mate."
  
  Drucker reports that "[a]ccording to sources with strong Michigan ties, the Secret Service has conducted a security sweep of the home of Romney’s sister."
  
  But he has a caveat.
  
  "[A] sweep of such a location could have been conducted in advance of Romney appearing as a surrogate — not the vice presidential nominee — at an upcoming McCain campaign stop in Michigan" where Romney was raised and his father was governor.


• It may turn out that McCain chooses a former rival for the nomination to be his running mate.
  
  It wouldn't be the first time. That's what Obama did, after all. John Kerry did it in 2004. Ronald Reagan did it in 1980. John F. Kennedy did it in 1960.
  
  But if National Review's Campaign Spot blog is correct, Fred Thompson isn't going to be the former rival who occupies the No. 2 spot on the GOP's ticket in 2008.
  
  "[T]here's no sign that Fred Thompson is the pick," the blog states — before asking an intriguing question.
  
  "Wouldn't a Biden-Thompson debate be worth the price of admission?"
  
  I don't know if it would resolve anything — but it sure would be entertaining!

The Buzz About McCain's Pick

The deadline for announcing John McCain's running mate still appears to be Friday.

I haven't heard his name mentioned much recently, but I'm still predicting that McCain will pick Tom Ridge as his running mate.

Everyone's got an opinion.

• Steven Thomma writes, for McClatchy Newspapers, that McCain is under some pressure with the deadline looming.
  
  Thomma also writes that the "fast-changing landscape in recent days has helped some potential choices and hurt others."
  
  Thomma proceeds to list these changes:
  
  
  1. "McCain has pulled into a neck-and-neck fight with Obama after trailing for weeks."
  
  
  2. "He's shored up support from social conservatives and has seen a payoff in the polls."
  
  
  3. "Obama picked Biden ... which could put a new emphasis on finding someone who could take on Biden in the vice presidential debate this fall."
  
  As a result, he suggests that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former presidential candidate Mitt Romney have the inside track. But Pawlenty has said he is happy as governor of Minnesota, and it has been widely reported that McCain doesn't like Romney.
  
  
• Julie Mason writes, in the Houston Chronicle, that one of the senators from my home state of Texas, Kay Bailey Hutchison, is "getting a push from conservative and other pundits in the lead-up to next week's Republican National Convention."
  
  It seems, as Mason writes, a longshot. Hutchison has spoken openly of her desire to run for governor of Texas in 2010 (even though the incumbent, a fellow Republican, Rick Perry, indicates that he wants to seek another term), so a four-year hitch as vice president doesn't appear to be in her plans.
  
  But, with so many of Hillary Clinton's backers apparently looking for someone to support in November, McCain might be thinking about putting a woman on the ticket.
  
  And Hutchison is Texas' senior senator, with 15 years' experience in the Senate. She was elected to finish the unexpired term of Democrat Lloyd Bentsen, who resigned to take a Cabinet post under Bill Clinton, and she has been re-elected easily ever since.


• If the choice was up to Henry Olsen, I'm not sure who he would pick. But he's pretty clear, in the Wall Street Journal, that he does not believe McCain should put Democrat-turned-independent Joe Lieberman on the ticket.
  
  Olsen points out something that has already been pointed out several times — Republican Abraham Lincoln put Democrat Andrew Johnson on his ticket when he ran for re-election in 1864.
  
  "That episode ended unhappily," Olsen writes, "for reasons directly relevant to the current situation."
  
  Perhaps the most significant point Olsen raises is this: "One must also contemplate the awful possibility that President McCain will not survive his term. Do Republican voters want to see a President Lieberman negotiate with a Democratic Congress on taxes, entitlements, judicial nominees and abortion? To ask this question is to answer it."