A New Senator for New Mexico

New Mexico is going to have an interesting campaign for its Senate seat this fall.

I didn't follow the situation in New Mexico very closely in recent months, but, apparently, the Democratic candidate for the seat of retiring Sen. Pete Domenici (pictured at right) will be Rep. Tom Udall and the Republican candidate will be Rep. Steve Pearce.

So the entire New Mexico House delegation will be freshmen in 2009 because Pearce won the GOP nomination by barely edging New Mexico's other House representative, Rep. Heather Wilson.

The Republican primary was competitive and offered voters a choice. Wilson is regarded as a moderate Republican. Pearce is considered farther to the right. New Mexico Republicans responded more to the conservative voice than the moderate one.

The left-leaning Udall, son of JFK Cabinet official Stewart Udall and nephew of Mo Udall, was unopposed in the Democratic primary. His candidacy against Pearce gives New Mexico voters a clear choice for the Senate seat -- one that could be important in the presidential vote.

It remains to be seen which of New Mexico's representatives will be successful in making that jump from the House to the Senate, but the campaign might affect the outcome of the presidential race in New Mexico -- and the state's reputation as a national bellwether.

"New Mexico in statewide political races long has taken comfort in straddling the ideological fence," writes David Roybal in the Albuquerque Journal. "Given the opportunity, voters here usually settle in as moderates come Election Day. This fall, however, we're going to be forced out of our comfort zone."

The Udall-Pearce matchup "ensures that Domenici's successor will be no moderate," says Roybal.

With Domenici's retirement, New Mexico's junior senator, Democrat Jeff Bingaman, will become the state's senior senator, and he's hardly a newcomer to his chamber. Bingaman has been in the Senate since 1983.

Domenici is finishing his sixth term in the Senate. He was first elected in 1972, the year Richard Nixon was re-elected in a 49-state landslide.

I'm not sure why Gov. Bill Richardson didn't run for the seat. I guess part of me kept thinking he would, even while he was running for president.

But that may be a good thing for Barack Obama. Richardson would be available to run for vice president if Obama asks him.

Roybal, who was a speech writer for Richardson when he served in Bill Clinton's Cabinet, doesn't speculate on what Richardson will do. (Of course, Richardson hasn't been asked to do anything yet.) But Richardson's presence on the national ticket -- or absence from it -- could be important in both the presidential and Senate campaigns in New Mexico.

"My guess: The conservative Pearce will lose if the liberal Obama wins in New Mexico," writes Roybal. "But would it be Obama that helps carry Udall to victory, or would it be Udall that carries Obama?"

Where Do We Stand Now?

As the third full week of October 2007 begins, it's a good time to ponder where each party stands in relation to its eventual nominee for president -- and the direction each party wants to take.

The Republicans

Fred Thompson made his debate debut last week, and his appearance was noteworthy because it exceeded the rather poor expectations the experts had. But the debate was noteworthy also for the confrontational nature of the Rudy Giuliani-Mitt Romney exchanges.

During the weekend, Romney decided to be the GOP's version of Howard Dean (circa 2004) when the former governor of Vermont claimed he represented the "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." Substitute the word "Republican" for the word "Democratic," and you have what Romney told his audience.

This was a bit much for John McCain, whose position in the race has been slipping decidedly for months. McCain decided to take on Romney and insisted that Romney was a poor choice to carry on in the tradition of Ronald Reagan. Read about it in the Washington Post.

Meanwhile, former Arkansas Gov. and former Baptist preacher Mike Huckabee was being declared "Mr. Right" by Jonathan Martin of The Politico. But becoming a competitive candidate might not be a good thing right now for Huckabee. The Boston Globe told its readers recently about Huckabee's decision to parole a convicted (and later castrated) rapist who proceeded to murder a woman in Missouri. That's not the kind of thing that tends to motivate the true believers to get out and vote for you.

And Bill Krstol frets, in the Weekly Standard, that the Republican candidates in general are too gloomy. Perhaps they need to borrow a page or two from Reagan's don't-worry-be-happy playbook.

The Democrats

If there were people out there who thought the Democratic race -- with Republicans holding their first debate with Fred Thompson on the stage and with Hillary Clinton seemingly on cruise control to the Democratic nomination -- would take the week off, they were mistaken.

Former Vice President Al Gore's Nobel Peace Prize reignited interest in a "Draft Gore" movement. But it ain't gonna happen, writes Gary Rosen in Commentary magazine.

Even for the award itself, Gore has his detractors. Peter Bronson of the Cincinnati Enquirer says Gore was honored for 'science fiction.'

And Albert R. Hunt of Bloomberg.com says Hillary's campaign is "efficient, tough and joyless." If the Republicans are having trouble finding the next Ronald Reagan, the Democrats don't seem to have resurrected Hubert Humphrey's "Happy Warrior" with the Hillary Clinton campaign.

The Polls

In the latest Rasmussen Reports Tracking Poll, Clinton has the support of 45% of Democrats and Giuliani leads among Republicans with 29%.

Clinton's top two rivals, Obama and Edwards, don't have as much support combined as Clinton -- Obama has 22% of Democrats and Edwards has 11%.

Giuliani's leading rival, according to Rasmussen, is Thompson, who is supported by 23% of Republicans. Romney is running a distant third with 13%.