McCain's Running Mate Dilemma

The Wall Street Journal says Barack Obama has an easier assignment than John McCain has when it comes to picking a running mate.

And the Wall Street Journal is absolutely right.

"As a young, rookie candidate running on 'change,' Barack Obama can help himself by choosing a safe, seasoned politician like Evan Bayh or Joe Biden," observes the Journal.

"As the trailing candidate from an unpopular party, John McCain has the harder decision because there really is no obvious candidate."

The Journal proceeds to list all the names that get mentioned frequently in this conversation — and includes the reasons why those candidates would be a drag on the Republican ticket:

• Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush — "[W]rong last name."


• Florida Gov. Charlie Crist — "[T]oo-frequent political opportunism that would disappoint much of the party."


• Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee — Ditto.


• Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romeny — "[He] failed to catch fire in the primaries ... and ... his Mormonism seems to be an issue with many evangelicals." The Journal, for its part, finds fault with Romney because he "continues to defend his state health-care reform."


• Independent Sen. Joe Lieberman — "[H]e'd probably alienate too many social conservatives."

With some of the other names that have been mentioned, the Journal raises objections that aren't quite as severe — but it still raises objections:

• Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty — A conservative who is "as confused as Mr. McCain on global warming, but he seems to have more principles than Mr. Crist."


• Former Management and Budget director Rob Portman — "Some McCain advisers will say his Bush experience rules him out, but he has depth as a policy wonk."


• Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal — Has "potential and appeal" but lacks "stature" and would "give up Mr. McCain's clear experience edge over Mr. Obama."


• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin — Ditto.


• Meg Whitman of eBay — "[The] magnitude of press scrutiny that any nominee must endure today is a lot to ask of someone who's never sought elective office."


• Fred Smith of FedEx — Ditto.


• South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford — He "did stumble recently during a CNN interview ... . Still, it was a minor misstep, and Mr. McCain could do worse."

The Journal admits to favoring former Sen. Fred Thompson, who "might make sense ... (for) promising to serve one term, clean up the mess, and go home. On the other hand, he might be better suited for Attorney General if Mr. McCain prevails."

When all is said and done, the Journal concedes, "If there were a miracle choice for Mr. McCain, that person would be obvious by now. There isn't, and an attempt to find one can easily backfire."

Fred Thompson Bows Out

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson dropped out of the race for the Republican presidential nomination today.

The decision doesn't seem to be much of a surprise.

There was a time when some Republicans thought they had found the next Ronald Reagan in another actor-turned-politician. But the Thompson experience proves, as nothing else could, that Reagan was unique.

Thompson didn't even get close enough to get a whiff of victory in the primaries and caucuses held thus far. And the most crushing disappointment must have been a lackluster showing in the South Carolina primary on Saturday.

After the expectations that had been established, it was hard to imagine Thompson's campaign going anywhere with the lack of support it received.

Thompson was counting on a strong showing in South Carolina to keep his campaign going, but he didn't get much traction in the Palmetto State. And the outlook isn't any better in the primaries that are coming up on the political calendar.

So Thompson made the wise decision and chose to drop out.

In writing about Thompson's withdrawal, the New York Times observed, "His speaking style swung between folksy and laconic to the point of sleepy."

I have a friend who admires Thompson and wanted to see him run for president. But even he sensed a certain hesitance in Thompson to make a commitment to the campaign in the months leading up to his announcement.

Maybe that was Thompson's "Hamlet factor." He never could decide if he really wanted to be president.

Maybe now, he has decided.

As They Prepare for the Caucus and the Primary ...

Today is Christmas, and my gift to my readers is my view of the presidential races and what is likely to happen when Iowans hold their caucuses a week from Thursday and voters in New Hampshire hold their primaries two weeks from today.

DEMOCRATS

Hillary Clinton likes to use the word "experience" to describe her qualification to be president. But this is her first national campaign as the candidate. Previously, she was in a supporting role.

The one with the experience in a national campaign is John Edwards, and he has a network of support in place in Iowa that propelled him to a second-place finish there four years ago. The question in the caucus is whether those supporters will actually turn out this time. Are those voters as reliable in 2008 as they were in 2004?

I've heard political analysts say that only about 10% of Iowa's electorate turn out for the caucuses, so the old adage about how "every vote counts" really is true in Iowa.

I have the feeling that Edwards is poised to spring a surprise in Iowa. He can survive until the New Hampshire primary the following week, even if he finishes second again in Iowa. But to remain in the race, he needs a strong showing in one or both of those states -- if only to demonstrate his appeal and vote-getting ability outside the South.

Can Barack Obama fail to win Iowa and New Hampshire -- and still be a factor in the race? That depends on how well he does. If he loses either state -- or both states -- by double digits, it may be over for him. If he is close to the top finisher, his campaign can survive awhile longer.

If Mrs. Clinton finishes first in both states, the party is over for the rest of the field, and momentum will take over. If she loses in both states, the party may be over for her.

REPUBLICANS

I think Mike Huckabee is likely to win Iowa, where evangelical Christians represent a sizable bloc. They seem comfortable with him. He's apparently the kind of candidate those voters thought they were getting when George W. Bush first sought the nomination in 2000.

Mitt Romney will likely finish second in Iowa. I think he and Huckabee will combine for perhaps 60% of the Iowa vote. The remaining 40% will be divided up among the rest of the Republican field.

After that, Romney's main challenge in New Hampshire appears to be coming from John McCain. Like Edwards in Iowa, McCain has a strong core of support in New Hampshire from his successful primary campaign there eight years ago. But McCain must contend with questions about his age. He will be 72 when the next president is sworn in.

I think Romney may be able to pull off the win in New Hampshire, but I think he will be wounded in Iowa and may not be an effective candidate in the other primaries that are coming up in January and early February.

If he's unable to win in New Hampshire, McCain's campaign is probably finished.

I think Rudy Giuliani's best chance to win comes later in January when voters in Florida will vote. Giuliani has been polling well in Florida. American Research Group, for example, has been reporting that Giuliani consistently has been receiving between 26% and 33% in Florida, which leads the field there.

If Giuliani's support in Florida collapses in favor of McCain (following a hypothetical McCain triumph in New Hampshire), Giuliani should consider withdrawing from the race.

Fred Thompson needs to win somewhere early in order to establish the momentum he needs in the primaries to come. The super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5 will be costly for candidates and only those with the best financing and the best organizations will be competitive that day.

One last thing ... VOTE! If you live in Iowa, participate in the caucus. If you live in New Hampshire, vote in the primary.

And a Merry Christmas to all.

More From The Polls

Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York is locked in statistical dead heats with her main Republican rivals, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson, according to Rasmussen Reports.

In a matchup with Giuliani, Clinton comes out on the short end, 46% to 44%. Clinton wins her matchup with Thompson, 47% to 45%.

But both results fall within the margin of error, so the candidate who trails in a given matchup may actually be leading.

Rasmussen also reports that there seems to be a distinct gender gap involved in Clinton's candidacy. According to polls, about 18% of Republican women would vote for Clinton, but about 20% of Democratic men would vote for the Republican running against her in the general election.

The Republican Debate

Although the highlight of last night's Republican debate was a sparring match between Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, it was noteworthy for the fact that recent entry Fred Thompson made his debate debut.

And Thompson avoided making any serious mistakes that might have damaged his campaign. John Dickerson of Slate was impressed that Thompson made it through the debate without falling on his ***. The National Review's Byron York said Thompson was clearly among the top tier Republican candidates with his performance.

And Michael Goodwin of the New York Daily News crowed that "Thompson shows he's no joke" in the debate.

Quin Hilyer of HumanEvents.com thought Giuliani and Thompson were the winners of the debate.

Did you watch the debate? What were your thoughts?