Late last night, I reported what I was hearing from WeatherNerd, which indicated that Hurricane Gustav would not hit New Orleans with the kind of intensity that had been predicted.This morning, WeatherNerd reports that Gustav is a Category 3 storm, rather than the Category 2 it was predicting last night.
Nevertheless, WeatherNerd asserts, Gustav is really a Category 3 in name only.
And a statement from the National Hurricane Center about four hours ago said that Gustav "is not strengthening" and called its then-estimated wind speed of 115 miles per hour "generous."
According to the most recent information from the Weather Channel, Gustav has, indeed, been downgraded to a Category 2 storm. At 8 a.m. Central time, it was reported to have a wind speed of 110 mph and was moving northwest at 16 mph.
In fact, it does not appear, at this point, that Gustav will be as severe as it was predicted to be only a couple of days ago.
It's always risky to predict what a storm like this will do.
Considering New Orleans' position in relation to sea level and the precarious nature of part of its levee system, some flooding appears inevitable.
And, in a hurricane, it is almost inevitable that some lives will be lost.
But the city looks like it will be spared a repeat of its experience after Hurricane Katrina. Loss of life and destruction of property do not appear likely to happen on a Katrina-like scale.
And, if that's really how it plays out, then the next question to be answered will be this — how will offshore drilling rigs and land-based refineries hold up?
Because if they are damaged, a nation that has already weathered the storm of rapidly escalating gas prices this summer will face another round of price hikes.
And they might not go away soon.
