Showing posts with label reality. Show all posts
Showing posts with label reality. Show all posts

Saturday, April 5, 2014

Looking Out for Number One


"Honesty is the best policy — when there is money in it."

Mark Twain

I'll be the first one to tell you that I was never very strong in certain subjects in school.

I knew a few people who got terrific grades in just about everything — there was one in particular who made it look stupefyingly easy, but she was such a sweet person that no one held it against her when she messed up the curve for the rest of us — but I'm sure they would tell you there were subjects at which they had to really work to keep that grade–point average up.

There may be some people in this world who do have a natural aptitude for just about every scholastic subject, but I have yet to meet one — just people who have successfully cultivated the appearance of brilliance.

And that is probably almost as good as if they really are brilliant. What people believe to be true tends to trump whatever is true.

That's what makes the art of spin so important in the world of politics. Even if they don't know much else, politicians do know a lot about the image–reality dynamic. When it is working in their favor, they ride the wave. But when the tide goes against them, they need the professional spinmeisters to turn things around.

In my experience, most politicians weren't the brightest bulbs in the box when they were in school. In fact, many might have been the polar opposite of that girl I mentioned earlier.

But the successful ones always seem to have known when it was time to trust their futures to the professional spinmeisters — who could, as I used to hear the adults in my world say from time to time, make chicken salad out of chicken s**t. In some circles — and depending upon what was being said — I guess that was/is called bluffing.

Sometimes, though, even spin won't work. That's when the strategy seems to be simply to change the subject.

And this year, with the party primaries in the midterm election campaigns now in full swing, a news event seems to have been made to order for changing the subject — the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. It is a story that has been going on for nearly a month, much of it spent watching search parties fly over the Indian Ocean.

As I write this, the searchers apparently are no closer to learning the flight's fate than they have been in the last four weeks — but they continue to chase every lead, no matter how unlikely it may be. And news networks are lampooned for labeling a 4–week–old story breaking news.

But for politicians, particularly Democrats and most especially those in federal office, it means attention is taken away from the facts about Obamacare and the economy. For them, that is almost certainly a good thing.

Now, economics was one of those subjects I took in college because I was required to do so, not because I had any special understanding of the material. It was like a foreign language to me, and I never had much success learning a second language, either.

I have friends who were and still are fluent in economics. I have always freely admitted that I am not. I sure did try to be when I was in that class. I spent hours reading and re–reading the chapters of my ECON textbooks, hoping some of it would stick, but I regret to report that little, if any, of it did.

(Well, as Will Rogers used to say, we're all ignorant. We're just ignorant about different things.)

And today, most of my understanding of economics is based on my understanding of logic. That normally helps me in unfamiliar territory — but economics really is another matter. It has a logic all its own.

I don't understand the whimsical nature of the stock market or the prices of gold and silver — or, to be honest, monetary policy in general.

But I do have a basic understanding of natural law. See, I took physics in high school. I didn't do very well at it, but I understood enough about motion and similar principles from my own observations of the world that I wasn't completely lost in that class.

I knew that every action has an equal and opposite reaction — from something as simple as playing baseball. To hit a ball a great distance, it was necessary to swing with as much force as possible. You don't hit the ball out of the park by squaring up to bunt.

And I knew from basic math that if you have a certain quantity of something and you give up a portion of it — through commerce or consumption or whatever — you are left with less to consume or trade for other things.

It isn't rocket science. And, for me, that is definitely a good thing.

Back when Barack Obama ran for president the first time, I freely acknowledge seeing logic in some of his objectives, but the recession and the economic implosion left what I thought was an unavoidable conclusion. The jobs crisis had to be met first — before any of the other objectives could be met.

Yes, I said, the health care system needs to be reformed. But not trashed — and certainly not while this nation is on its economic knees. Put America back to work so there is a solid economic foundation upon which to rebuild health care.

If we didn't do that, I warned, we would see premiums and deductibles go up, policies canceled, existing full–time jobs downgraded to part–time ones, and existing part–time jobs eliminated.

Yes, I said, the minimum wage should be higher. But we shouldn't forget that it was really only intended as a minimum entry–level wage. Over time, as the individual gains experience and knowledge, that individual will receive raises, bonuses, all sorts of additional incentives.

And I was also uncomfortable with the idea of raising the minimum wage by nearly 40%. It was unrealistic to think that businesses could give their current workers that kind of raise and be able to increase their workers' hours, much less create new jobs.

The economy is not one big faceless entity in spite of what we hear about a handful of massive corporations that monopolize everything. Yes, there are huge corporations that do control an ever–growing segment of the U.S. economy, but much of America's economic activity is still in the hands of small business owners. There may not be as many mom–and–pop shops as there once were, but they still drive the American economy.

Except for the newcomers, I guess nearly all small business owners have been in business for awhile. They're bound to have a pretty good idea what kind of annual profits they can expect from their businesses, and they budget accordingly. When their incomes don't meet their needs because of added financial demands, they have to make adjustments. Maybe minor adjustments in the prices being charged or the products/services being offered will bring things back into balance. Sometimes they have to cut employee hours. They may have to cut some jobs.

If you own your business and the math isn't balancing, you look for ways to make it balance. If you are required to meet new guidelines that take money from your budget, you have to compensate for that. If you are required to pay your employees more, you have to compensate for that as well.

You do what you have to do. Same in your personal life. If you are spending more than you're taking in, you have to find ways to economize. You have to function within your means.

It's physics. It's the law of survival — looking out for number one. And you can't blame anyone for that, can you?

If someone tries to sell me on the idea, the image that America can do things that I know in my heart are at odds with natural law, I resist. Because reality tells me otherwise, and I have to ask:

Why should the United States be immune to natural law?

That is the great unasked question in America today. But I get the feeling that more and more Americans are asking it in their hearts and minds.

The latest Associated Press-GfK poll indicates more movement away from the Democrats. That is bad news in the midterm election year.

I believe it is due, in part, to the fact that more people are realizing that, without a sound foundation, no lasting achievements are possible.

Sunday, February 28, 2010

The Truth Hurts


"Theoretical physics can prove an elephant can hang from a cliff with his tail tied to a daisy. But use your eyes, your common sense."

Kevin Costner
JFK (1991)

I know there are Democrats — many of them, in fact — who believe, all evidence to the contrary, that "The One" can do no wrong. Anyone who has the audacity to suggest otherwise must be racist.

Please.

Perhaps they will pay attention to the words of Newsweek's Eleanor Clift.

Regular readers of my blog may remember that I referred to Clift in a post last summer. At the time, I pointed out that she is one of those folks in the media who are on Obama's side — "She leans so far to the left," I wrote last July, "that, during the Clinton administration, she was nicknamed 'Eleanor Rodham Clifton.' "

So the usual manipulation that Democrats use to distract and deflect isn't effective when it is used against Clift — even though she has advice for Republicans based on the Obama experience.

She labels it a cautionary tale.

"The election that swept Barack Obama into the White House wasn't about health care," she writes, "even though it seemed that way to a lot of Democrats still smarting over President Clinton's failed effort 16 years earlier. Obama was elected because of the collapsing economy and his opposition to the war in Iraq. And his focus on health–care reform after the election was interpreted by voters as inattention to their paramount concerns: jobs and the economy."

Some people will argue that Obama has not been inattentive, that there have been too many issues to deal with. But most voters, as Clift understands, are not policy wonks. Most voters don't really pay any attention to most of the details of governing. Most voters are interested only in the big picture, the bottom line.

And here's the bottom line on the Obama presidency, in Clift's words: "The White House didn't do enough to connect the dots between health–care reform and economic security, and the Republicans filled in the blanks by frightening voters about the real and imagined impact of a changed system engineered by one–party control in Washington."

Wouldn't you like to think somebody learned the right lesson in the last year? Obama, as Clift observes, didn't learn the right lesson from the election in 2008 — and, apparently, the Republicans didn't learn the right lesson from the experience of 2009.

"[T]he GOP is on track to make big gains in November," she writes, "and they are likely to interpret those gains as affirmation for a strategy that is narrowing the party's appeal and offering no new ideas."

The reality may not be what the voters think it is, but, for many of them, perception is reality. And therein lies the key, I think, to a riddle that, inexplicably, bewilders Democrats whose stock answer to questions about the economy and unemployment is ... "It was Bush's fault."

Democrats, particularly those who feel they are well informed because they follow policy developments so closely, may think that Obama has been actively promoting job creation, but that contradicts what most voters see.

And many voters haven't liked what they've been seeing. Consequently, Obama's approval numbers have declined dramatically — from the stratospherically (and, by definition, unsustainable) high numbers of a year ago to the perilous mid–40s range in February 2010. Newsweek, for example, recently reported that Obama's approval rating has fallen to 43%.

I hate to state the obvious to Democrats who are so well informed, but somebody has to. If they don't want to listen to it, that is their option. But the truth, while painful, is good to know, especially at a time when there is so much pain in America.

And here's some truth for you. The price of health care insurance is way down the list of priorities for unemployed Americans, especially those whose unemployment benefits have run out. They're more concerned about keeping a roof over their heads and putting clothes on their bodies and food in their stomachs.

But back to that "cautionary tale" I mentioned earlier.

"Republicans fault Obama and the Democrats for legislating like they had a bigger mandate than they did," Clift writes, "and now Democrats are paying the price for overreaching."

But the Republicans have an "absence of ideas," Clift says. "You can't claim a mandate if you don't have a platform. If the GOP won control of Congress tomorrow, all they could claim they were elected to do is not pass health'care reform."

Seems to me both parties have things they need to learn between now and Election Day.