The Lone Star State

I'm about to say something that almost certainly will surprise my readers here in Texas -- and my readers who used to live here.

But bear with me.

I'm going to be watching Tuesday night's primary results to find out more than whether Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton wins the presidential primary here. I want to see which party is attracting Hispanic votes and how many Hispanics participate.

If Clinton is going to win Texas, she's going to do it with the help of Hispanic voters, the way she did in Nevada and California. And I haven't looked at the numbers from Florida as carefully as I should have, but I would guess that the Hispanic vote was a factor there, too.

If Hispanics participate in the Texas primary, that may help Clinton's cause. Nearly one-third of Texas' population is Hispanic.

The Hispanic demographic is growing faster than any other in the country -- and the numbers tell the story better in Texas than anywhere. Part of that story is the historically low participation rate in elections by most Hispanics. Will those numbers go up in the primary? And will that increase favor the Democrats or Republicans?

If they're participating in part because of their frustration over the Republicans' hard-line approach to immigration, that's not good news for the Republicans, who, not so long ago, were the minority party in Texas.

When George W. Bush was re-elected in 2004, he received about 40% of the Hispanic vote. But Hispanics watched with the rest of the country in 2005 and 2006 as Hurricane Katrina whipped New Orleans, the war in Iraq dragged on with no end in sight, and Bush and the congressional Republicans tried to pull every string they could to keep Terri Schiavo alive.

When Texans went to the polls in 2006, some unexpected things happened.

Here in normally rock-ribbed Republican Dallas County, Democrats were elected county judge and district attorney, and almost every contested judicial race was captured by a Democrat.

And even though now-disgraced Rep. Tom DeLay had gerrymandered the congressional districts to make them more receptive to Republicans, Democrats had a better-than-expected showing in Texas' congressional races in 2006. Democrats won DeLay's old seat after he was forced to resign from the House under the weight of the Jack Abramoff lobbying scandal.

And in the newly redistricted 23rd District, Ciro Rodriguez upset seven-term Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla. In 2004, Texas' voters sent Bonilla to Washington with 69% of the vote. But in a redrawn district with an all-party primary in the 2006 general election, Bonilla failed to get a majority and, in the December runoff, could only muster 46% against his Democratic opponent -- who supports abortion rights and gun control.

Nationally, the numbers showed that support for Republicans among Hispanics had dropped to the low 30s. Experts had been predicting that another election with 40% support from Hispanics would make the Republicans the majority party for a generation.

But that didn't happen. And now it remains to be seen if the Hispanic support level has dropped even more since 2006.

I'm not saying the Democrats' presidential nominee will win Texas this year. The last Democrat who carried Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976.

But keep your eye on what the numbers say about Texas' Hispanic voters. I believe they hold the keys to success in November.

And I believe the Republicans should be worried about what the numbers will tell us.

Another One Bites the Dust

Sources are telling CNN that New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson will drop out of the Democratic race for president later today.

The numbers are the story, apparently.

Richardson, who is part Hispanic, finished fourth in Iowa and New Hampshire, neither of which has a large Hispanic population. But Richardson's campaign also suffers from a lack of funding, and donations haven't been on the rise lately.

So, according to the reports, Richardson will return to his home state and announce his withdrawal.

I haven't heard any speculation about this, but I wonder when Richardson will announce his intentions -- if he has any -- regarding Republican Pete Domenici's open Senate seat.

As you may recall, a few months ago, Domenici announced his intention to leave the Senate for health reasons, creating an opening in New Mexico. Prominent Republicans immediately began lining up to seek the party's nomination, but I haven't heard anything about the Democrats.

I think most were waiting to see what Richardson, who is quite popular in his home state, would do.

And, frankly, I'm a bit surprised that he is dropping out of the presidential race.

I've felt, all along, that Richardson was a longshot to win the nomination, but on Tuesday, as the returns came in from New Hampshire, he appeared to be focusing on Nevada, which will hold its caucus on Jan. 19.

So I assumed he was making plans for campaigning where he could expect to find a more receptive ethnic audience.

After making appeals in states that are both more than 90% white, candidates will find the population of Nevada is decidedly more diverse. Nearly one-fifth of the people in Nevada are Hispanic.

And that's another part of the numbers. It's the part of the story that seems to get lost in the talk of the potential for the first woman or the first black nominee for president.

But Hispanics are the fastest-growing ethnic group in America. They are poised to be an influential group in American politics, and it was long assumed they would gravitate to the Republican Party, but many have been alienated by the hard-line approach to immigration that has been taken by many Republicans.

And, frankly, many Hispanics weren't encouraged by what they saw in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

To this point, voter turnout among Hispanics hasn't been high. But it's no stretch to suggest that whoever can mobilize the Hispanic vote will win control of the government for his/her party for a generation.

For awhile, I wondered if Richardson might play a role in that story, but now it appears it will have to be someone else.

At least, on the presidential level.

Richardson may yet have a role to play in the U.S. Senate.