The Great Disappointment

Over the years, countless people have tried to interpret the writings in the Bible — usually in an attempt to understand the meaning behind apocalyptic prophecies.

The Second Coming of Christ usually plays a role in these interpretations. In 2,000 years, though, every calculation that was intended to pinpoint when the Second Coming would occur has been wrong.

Those who have believed these miscalculations — and, in many cases, made great sacrifices because of them — have been profoundly disappointed. But perhaps none have been as disappointed as the followers of a Baptist preacher named William Miller in the mid–19th century.

Based on his studies of the Bible, Miller determined that, in biblical terms, a "day" did not mean a 24–hour period but rather a calendar year. Daniel 8:14 stated that the "sanctuary" would be "cleansed" after 2,300 days. Miller interpreted that to mean the cleansing of the sanctuary — purification of the earth by fire upon the Second Coming — would occur in 1843. He reached this conclusion based on his assumption that the 2,300–day period began in 457 B.C. with the decree to rebuild Jerusalem.

The "Millerites," as his followeres were called, believed Miller's prediction in spite of the fact that there were a few false alarms. Miller told his followers that Jesus would return between March 21, 1843, and March 21, 1844, but March 21, 1844, came and went without Jesus' return and so did Miller's revised prediction of April 18, 1844.

Miller was unfazed, writing that "I still believe that the day of the Lord is near, even at the door."

Thus, the stage was set for a Millerite preacher named Samuel Snow, who calculated that the exact date of the Second Coming would be Oct. 22, 1844, and many Millerites gave away their belongings in anticipation of the event. Then, on this day 165 years ago, thousands of Millerites gathered together to wait for Jesus, but he did not return, and the day went down in history as "The Great Disappointment."

Miller, who died in 1849, is remembered as the man who began the Advent movement. One of its spiritual descendants, the Branch Davidians, made headlines in 1993, first for the siege of their compound in Waco, Texas, by federal agents and then for the compound's fiery destruction more than seven weeks later.

The End of the World?

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I tend to take apocalyptic predictions with a grain of salt.

When I was in college, I was fascinated by a film I saw on cable about the predictions of Nostradamus. It was narrated by Orson Welles, and it dealt with the interpretations many scholars had made about Nostradamus' predictions for the future. (The title was "The Man Who Saw Tomorrow.")

In the film, Nostradamus (who died in the 16th century) was said to have predicted such things as:

• The French Revolution in the 18th century;


• the American Revolution, also in the 18th century;


• the assassinations of Presidents Lincoln and Kennedy;


• the assassination of presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy;


• the rise to power of Hitler and World War II, as well as the first uses of the atomic bomb; and


• the Islamic Revolution in Iran.

The film was made in the early 1980s. Welles, who died in 1985, suggested in the film that Nostradamus' predictions pointed to, among other things, a major earthquake in Los Angeles in May 1988. That never happened, although a major earthquake did strike in San Francisco the following year, and Los Angeles was the victim of an earthquake in 1994.

Welles also said the predictions suggested that a "third antichrist" (the first two were Napoleon and Hitler) would rise to power in the Middle East and would start a third world war. Some people have suggested that this third antichrist is Osama bin Laden, but the war in Afghanistan — so far — hardly rises to the level of either of the first two world wars.

Nevertheless, the film provoked some intriguing discussions between my friends and myself. So did the interpretation of the prediction of when the world would come to an end — late in the 38th century.

None of us will still be here nearly 1,800 years from now, so we won't be able to confirm whether Nostradmus was right.

Welles, who had a reputation for accepting just about any work that would provide him with funds to support endeavors he really believed in, seems to have rejected most, if not all, of the conclusions in the film. At the time he made "The Man Who Saw Tomorrow," Welles reportedly was interested in making an extended videotape of his 1942 film "The Magnificent Ambersons" — these days, it would be called a "director's cut." Perhaps that was his motivation for making the film.

"One might as well make predictions based on random passages from the phone book," he once told Merv Griffin.

But others have predicted a date for the end of the world that is much closer — Dec. 21, 2012. That is the date that allegedly was forecast by the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar, which was used by the Mayan civilization.

And, whether 2012 will be apocalyptic or not, several writers have penned books suggesting that all kinds of things will happen that year — the collision of an asteroid or comet with the earth; a shift of consciousness; all kinds of upheaval.

Now, a new film, called simply "2012," is going to be released later this year.

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I learned many things when I was in college. After I saw "The Man Who Saw Tomorrow," I was inspired to buy a couple of books on Nostradamus' predictions. And I remember asking the father of my high school girlfriend, who was a philosophy professor, what he knew of Nostradamus and what he thought of the predictions. At the time, I was disappointed when he merely chuckled and said he didn't think much of it.

I still have those books, and they make for interesting reading, but I like to think that I've matured in my thinking since I received my bachelor's degree. And I'm not inclined to think that Nostradamus' predictions have any more constructive information to reveal about the future than I am about the "Book of Revelation" in the Bible — although there are certainly a lot of people in the world who believe in that.

The fact is there are still people who do believe that sort of thing and need little encouragement to eagerly embrace it. And one of the things I've learned in my life is that there are always other people who are anxious to exploit this kind of thing, whether for their own pleasure or profit or out of malice or whatever.

I recall that, almost immediately after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, someone began circulating an e-mail message that claimed that Nostradamus had predicted those events. My own brother sent me an e-mail and asked me if there was anything to it. He knew I had read these books about Nostradamus' predictions, and he felt I would be a good source for accurate information.

I reported to him — and I later confirmed, by re-reading the material — that the e-mail in question appeared to have combined phrases from separate "quatrains," which gave it the sound of authenticity. But I found no evidence that Nostradamus ever wrote a prediction that forecast the attacks.

Now, that doesn't mean that there aren't legitimate threats to the planet that should concern us all. Former Vice President Al Gore, for example, has warned people of the dangers of global warming. He has been ridiculed for it in some quarters, but he's received some support for his hypothesis in others.

And the new president has been encouraging moves toward energy independence, in part to help curb global warming, whether it is real or merely perceived. Even if global warming does not exist, as some people have suggested, surely we will all benefit from finding new fuel sources that make the air cleaner and lessen our dependence on foreign suppliers.

If there was a part of Welles' narration that was a reflection of his actual beliefs, it was his observation that man holds in his own hands the keys to his fate.

We may not have the technology to prevent a collision between our planet and an asteroid.

But we can control the course of events here on earth.