Shilling For Your Dollars ... And Votes

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"[O]ne of the great goals of this nation's war is to restore public confidence in the airline industry. It's to tell the traveling public: Get on board. Do your business around the country. Fly and enjoy America's great destination spots. Get down to Disney World in Florida."

George W. Bush
Sept. 21, 2001
O'Hare Airport, Chicago

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I guess it's official now. Presidents don't lead anymore. They shill.

Do you remember, a little more than a week after the September 11 attacks, when George W. Bush was in Chicago, and he pleaded with Americans to travel to places like Disney World? The popular rhetoric of the time was aimed at encouraging Americans to spend their money on expensive jewelry, clothes, family vacations, etc. — because, if they didn't, the reasoning went, "the terrorists win."

The idea — and it truly was worthy of Madison Avenue — was that the attacks were all about capitalism and consumerism — the American way of life. And it was the natural extension of the Republicans' simplistic argument — "They hate us for who we are."

Such an assessment defied the only conclusion that could be reached after a logical review of the facts — but it did have a few things going for it. Primarily, it could be boiled down to a simple, memorable phrase that Americans could remember, like "don't ask don't tell" or "just say no."

Never mind that, only a few days before, as he was standing on the South Lawn of the White House, Bush warned that the war on terrorism — which he described, in an unfortunate word choice that conjured up medieval memories for those in the Muslim world, as a "crusade" — was "going to take a while."

On that day in Chicago in September 2001, Bush faced a crisis in the airline industry. Commercial airline travel had been shut down for three days after the terrorist attacks, which had been costly, but business had been shaky before the attacks, and it was really struggling after them.

After seeing the events of September 11 unfold, people were, understandably, jittery about air travel. The demand for tickets plummeted. Airlines were having to cancel flights.

Bush knew that air travel played a key role in economic activity, and he wasn't eager to let the airlines drag the rest of the economy down. So he shilled for the airlines. Things remained bad for the airlines for several months — there was so much unused jet fuel that, by the end of 2001, gas prices had fallen below $1/gallon for the first time in decades — but folks didn't blame Bush for that. It had been the work of those nasty old "evil–doers."

No matter how long it took to wage the war on terrorism, the airline industry — and all the related industries, like hotels and restaurants — needed a boost right away.

Say what you will about the Bush administration — and I've said and/or written most of it before — but he was light years ahead of his successor when it comes to self–serving photo ops.

He was a superior shill.

See, I feel I am witnessing the same kind of thing from the current occupant of the White House — only it has been far less competent. Some people see that as a plus — that Barack Obama is such an amateur at shilling — but the truth is that shilling has become perhaps the primary role of a president.

The Gulf of Mexico is huge. It is the ninth–largest body of water in the world. It took Hurricane Katrina nearly a week to cross it and make landfall in New Orleans. Contrary to what you might have imagined, the Gulf isn't one big oil slick.

That doesn't mean that three months of constant flow of crude oil into the waters of the Gulf didn't take their toll.

Certainly, the oil has created an environmental catastrophe that will be decades in repairing. People are staying away from the Gulf. The many Gulf businesses that depend on tourism are struggling, even if they are a great distance from the actual location of the oil spill — and the Florida Panhandle is not far. Many of the people there truly are suffering.

That suffering can't be blamed on the previous administration, but it's still a threat to the economy, and Obama seems to be intent on nipping it in the bud. Maybe he thinks there are still votes to be won for this November's midterm elections.

Oh, he warned everybody that there was a long slog ahead. "Our job is not finished," he said yesterday, promising that the work would go on until the job was done. It was meant to reassure the folks on the coast, whose jobs are now at risk because the tourists aren't flocking to the beaches — and who might be thinking about voting against the Democrats in November because they're tired and angry and frustrated and they need to lash out at someone.

I'm more inclined to think this is about 2012 than 2010 — unless Obama is still harboring fantasies about avoiding midterm losses this year.

And I don't believe he is naive enough to think that his constant slide in the polls can be reversed in time to make a difference in November.

Anyway, there was a lot of talk about how Obama and his daughter went for a dip in the Gulf of Mexico. But it wasn't seen by anyone who could verify it independently. CNN reports that no press cameras were on hand to record the symbolic swim, but, lucky us, the White House's photographers apparently were there.

Well, a photo of the president and his daughter in some water was promptly circulated. The non–verbal message? Come to the Gulf of Mexico. The water's fine. The food is great. The beaches are as white as sugar. Come to the Gulf and spend your money.

I hate to be a party pooper, but there is nothing in the picture that could possibly confirm where it was taken. Not to go all "Capricorn One" on you, but suspicious minds might surmise that the Obamas went ahead with their original plans to visit Martha's Vineyard, and that the picture was actually taken at one of the exclusive/private swimming holes in Massachusetts.

Water is water, right?

Now, why, you may ask, were no press reporters there? Obama had an answer for that. "I'm not going to let you guys take a picture of me with my shirt off," he said. "You guys will tease me just like last time. I was on the front page ... People commenting."

So the president wanted to help the Gulf economy — but he was sensitive about being teased. You know, most of us got over that when we were still in elementary school.

I'm not suggesting that this was staged. But photo ops that can be that easily questioned won't achieve their primary objective, which is to be of some benefit to the person(s) in the picture.

Just sayin' that the symbolic swim should have been witnessed by some folks who aren't on the White House payroll — because whoever arranged for this photo op really dropped the ball.

And maybe I'm wrong, but it seems to me that the Obamas have tried to keep their children out of the spotlight whenever possible. And that really has seemed to be typical of all the presidential families in my lifetime. But this time, the president apparently had no trouble using one of his daughters as his prop.

Perhaps, in spite of his protests, he is influenced by polls, like the AP/GfK poll that shows Democrats losing the allegiance of independents, who played an important role in the sweeping Democratic triumphs of 2008.

Those voters, report Alan Fram and Trevor Tompson of the Associated Press, have shown "especially strong concerns about the economy, with 9 in 10 calling it a top problem and no other issue coming close." But they have seen little improvement and little indication that the administration is doing anything to create jobs or prevent further job losses.

Perhaps Obama feels some pressure to shill for those who depend on the sand and the sea of the Gulf for their livelihoods — because it's entirely possible that he is going to want their help in a couple of years.

Message: I Care

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"You cannot be president of the United States if you don't have faith. Remember Lincoln, going to his knees in times of trial and the Civil War and all that stuff. You can't be. And we are blessed. So don't feel sorry for — don't cry for me, Argentina. Message: I care."

George H.W. Bush
41st president

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Do you remember when the first President Bush was facing an unexpected challenge within his own party while the Democrats were uniting behind a charismatic Southern governor and a Texas billionaire was urging disgruntled Americans to sign petitions that would get his independent candidacy on the ballot in every state?

It was 1992, and Bush was speaking to some insurance employees in New Hampshire at the time. He had been criticized for seeming detached from the American people, and his advisers, who had been struggling to find a strategy to counter that perception, inserted a cue card in his remarks that said, "Message: I care."

It was intended as a prompt for Bush to ad lib something, tell a story, connect with people and assure them that, yes, he really did care about them and their problems.

But he read the cue card word for word, which only reinforced the public's perception of a detached, elitist president. He lived down to the public's expectation of him.

Now, it isn't my intention to suggest that Barack Obama is as clueless as Bush certainly seemed to be on that occasion. But I still got the feeling as I watched Obama's speech last night that this was his "Message: I care" moment.

Because it seems to me that the lesson of the original "Message: I care" moment — and all the subsequent "Message: I care" moments — is that there are times when a president absolutely must give the public what it needs — even if it isn't what he wants to do. And, yet, he proceeds to give them the opposite of what they need — perhaps because he knows no other way.

In 1992, the public needed a president who clearly cared, but all Bush's gaffe did was confirm for the voters that he really was as out of touch as he appeared to be. He reconfirmed that impression later that year when, during one of his debates with Bill Clinton and Ross Perot, the camera caught him looking at his watch while Clinton was answering a question.

And it was over for the elder Bush. Game, set, match.

In many ways, Obama's speech last night was a "Message: I care" moment.

It's been nearly two months since oil started gushing into the Gulf. Over and over, in the last several days, I have heard people speak in anticipation of Obama's speech. We know what happened, and we know who is to blame, people said. We don't need to be told what happened. We see it every night on our TVs. Tell us what the plan is to stop the flow of oil and clean up the oil that's out there.

But Obama insisted on recapping what had happened, anyway.

To his credit, he did spend some time talking about the plan of action. But, as Andrew Malcolm observed in the Los Angeles Times, "that early portion of the address was robotic, lacked real energy, enthusiasm. And worst of all specifics. He was virtually detail–less."

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"Obama was like a Harvard–trained nurse talking vacation to a new patient bleeding all over the ER floor. Hello, could we please stop the blood flow here before we discuss the long–term recovery?"

Andrew Malcolm
Los Angeles Times

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How could that be? The news was full of reports yesterday about how much more oil was being released into the Gulf waters every day than anyone had believed.

It seems clear that BP was, indeed, guilty of reckless behavior. But, as the Boston Herald wrote, there was "convincing evidence" of the absence of "an early coordinated response to protect the coastline." Consequently, "while the president tried to convince a skeptical nation that he was indeed in charge now, this was too little, too late."

OK, a convincing argument can be made that the Herald has never really been in Obama's corner. It was, after all, one of the newspapers that endorsed John McCain in 2008. But the thing about the "Message: I care" moment is that a president isn't just criticized by his foes but also, however offhandedly, by his friends.

And one of Obama's friends, the New York Times, wrote, "We know that the country is eager for reassurance. We're not sure the American people got it from a speech that was short on specifics and devoid of self–criticism."

Maureen Dowd, who writes for the Times, just can't seem to break that tendency to fawn over Obama even when she scolds him.

But scold him she did.

"Of the many exciting things about Barack Obama's election, one was the anticipation of a bracing dose of normality in the White House," she writes. "So it's unnerving now to have yet another president elevating personal quirks into a management style. How can a man who was a dazzling enough politician to become the first black president at age 47 suddenly become so obdurately self–destructive about politics?"

Personally, I would argue that it wasn't as "sudden" as Dowd seems to think. That conclusion seems particularly baffling to me when I read what Dowd observes next — how his "emotional detachment" has "obscured his vision."

Frankly, it astonishes me when I hear people speaking of Obama's detachment as if it is a new thing. I've seen it in his response to the burgeoning epidemic of unemployment that has wrecked millions of lives. The fact that he seems detached when dealing with another catastrophe that threatens millions all along the Gulf coast is not a surprise to me.

What does surprise me is that a bright, articulate, Harvard–educated president doesn't get that there are times when a president must prioritize. We can hold BP accountable after we plug the hole and start cleaning up the mess in the Gulf. We can devote money and manpower to developing better energy sources once this crisis is over.

Until then, this disaster in the Gulf is plenty big enough to keep us busy.

Obama was "not particularly inspiring," said the St. Petersburg (Fla.) Times, which endorsed Obama in 2008 but can't quite seem to shake that decision, even though it feels compelled to proclaim that Obama "offered more than rhetoric."

Indeed? Well, the St. Petersburg Times also seemed to agree with Malcolm that Obama was short on specifics.

"[A]n anxious American public wanted to know, HOW are you going to accomplish all this?" Malcolm wrote.

But Obama spent half of his address — his first from the Oval Office — lecturing his listeners about the need to explore alternative energy sources.

Is Obama right that this is something America needs to discuss? Yes. Is it something that America has needed to do for a long, long time? Yes. Is it appropriate to be talking about it now? No.

Leadership? Or Showmanship?

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Barack Obama plans to address the nation tomorrow night about the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

The speech is scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. (Central), after Obama returns from a two–day visit to Alabama, Mississippi and Florida, the president's fourth trip to the region since the oil rig exploded in April and triggered the events with which Obama and the government's emergency responders have been trying to deal ever since. It is said Obama will speak for about 15 minutes about the disaster.

This is a pivotal moment in the Obama presidency.

After nearly eight weeks of this, Americans have a general idea what's happening, and they don't want to hear an update. Well, that isn't entirely true, I guess. They'd like it just fine if Obama could tell them exactly how much oil is pouring into the Gulf every day. There seems to be a distinct discrepancy between BP's figures and everyone else's.

Beyond that, though, they've got a pretty good handle on what's happening. What they want to know is the course of action that will be taken.

What sacrifice, if any, will be asked of them?

Personally, I feel that was one of the great failings of the Bush administration. After the attacks of September 11, the country was in a common cause frame of mind and would have been responsive to a presidential call for a shared sacrifice — but Bush told a few Americans to prepare for war, and he told the rest of us to go shopping.

Would it have been necessary for American troops to remain in Afghanistan as long as they have if all Americans, those at home as well as those in uniform, had been urged to make a common sacrifice for a common objective?

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"Americans need to know that Mr. Obama, whose coolness can seem like detachment, is engaged. This is not a mere question of presentation or stagecraft, although the White House could do better at both. (We cringed when he told the 'Today' show that he had spent important time figuring out 'whose ass to kick' about the spill. Everyone knew that answer on Day 2.)"

New York Times

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Perhaps in the early days of his presidency, when Obama's approval rating hovered at astonishing heights — and at a point in his term when, technically, there was nothing (or, at least, very little) of which to approve or disapprove — Americans, many of whom appeared weary after eight years of George W. Bush's mangled syntax, were content to listen in admiration, as they had during the presidential campaign, to Obama's smooth oratory.

But those days are gone. The bloom is off the rose. So, to borrow a phrase from Joe Friday, just give us the facts.

There is a symbolic quality to this that is hard to measure. When a president engages in straight talk with the American people about a particularly vexing problem, he enlists their service in solving it. There is an incalculable value in that, but what it comes down to is this: people like to feel like they are part of the process.

Actually, a character like Joe Friday, from a popular TV series, provides an apt analogy for the Obama administration — in truth, for any administration. Modern Americans see their president on TV every day. For a time, they are enthralled, but there comes a point when they become disenchanted. When that happens, the negative perception begins to harden, and it requires something really dramatic to alter the downward trajectory.

You could say that John F. Kennedy reached a similar point in 1962, the second year of his presidency, when U.S. surveillance revealed that the Soviet Union was installing nuclear missiles in Cuba. When Kennedy addressed the nation, he didn't offer flowery language. He didn't try to impress the voters with his vocabulary and his extensive education. He told the American people how dire the situation was and enlisted their cooperation.

Engage us, Mr. President.

An Instinctive Response

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"May God stand between you and harm, in all the dark places you may travel."

Eighteenth Egyptian dynasty

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Each president carves out his own niche, based on his personality and his individual style.

He is elected to face the next four years as leader of the American people — who expect him to do so in his own way (although there are certain things that are expected of every president).

If the voters approve, the president usually is re–elected. If they don't, he might still be re–elected, but he's going to have to work a lot harder.

Which will be true of Barack Obama?

I don't know. A majority of Americans apparently liked what they saw in 2008 — but that was back in the days when many Americans didn't know nearly as much about him as they will by 2012, when they will have seen him on their TV screens every day for more than three years.

You really get to know someone you see every day, and this constant exposure has been the undoing of some presidents. Familiarity, don't you know, breeds contempt.

And it focuses attention like a laser beam on those traits with which people just aren't terribly comfortable. For example, have you ever been in a relationship in which one of you snored? The one who snored may have possessed several fine and endearing qualities, but the many positives may have been outweighed by the single negative.

Anyway, I realize that those comfort boundaries vary from person to person, but I'm seeing some things from the president in this Gulf oil spill crisis that I find unsettling — and unsettlingly familiar. And I wonder how many other people feel that way, too.

Let's get some perspective first.

Go back a couple of years to the presidential campaign, when Obama frequently spoke of eight years of "failed" Bush policies. Well, that's the kind of thing the opposition is expected to say during the heat of a campaign, and the circumstances surrounding the general election campaign were ideal for that kind of criticism.

And if any presidency in modern times deserved to be labeled a failure, the Bush administration did.

But when you've won the election and you take office, it's time to stop campaigning and start governing.

Oh, and you also take ownership of what has already happened (because the voters chose you to deal with it) — and responsibility for whatever will happen in the next four years (because voters deemed you more capable). It's part of the deal.

Now, I know that, in today's world, the campaign never really ends.

But crude oil started spewing into the Gulf when the offshore rig exploded in April. It is now June. I find it troubling that, when Obama spoke of the subject recently, he placed at least as much emphasis on fixing blame as fixing the problem, saying that he wants to know "whose ass to kick."

Obama won't be running for a second term for two more years, and this is the kind of crisis a president can use to make his case for re–election (if everything works out) — but this president acts like he's thrown in the towel on this problem and is focusing on his case for pointing fingers. I suppose that "ass" remark was his attempt to provide some of that macho swagger that lots of people (even some of his critics) admired about George W. Bush.

I know it must be frustrating for Obama. Bush certainly deserved to be blamed for much of the mess that was waiting for Obama after he took the oath of office. But he can't be plausibly blamed for something that happened more than a year after he left the presidency.

And that leaves Obama with a different problem. Who can be blamed?

This problem is a big one. Millions of lives and hundreds, if not thousands, of cities and towns hang in the balance. And I agree that, ultimately, at some point, someone's head must roll.

But obsessing about it now indicates to me that Obama does things in reverse order. Maybe that is his instinctive response.

If it is, I can sympathize — sort of. I remember when I was in ninth grade, and my algebra teacher gave me a problem to do. I went up to the board and did it in reverse order. I got the same result as those who did it correctly and in the correct order. I just did mine backwards.

I remember my teacher watching me with a puzzled look on her face, then, when I was done, she asked me, "Why did you do it that way?" I confessed that I did not know. It was just easier for me.

Well, it's one thing to do an algebra problem in reverse when you're 15 years old. It's quite another to be worrying about who to blame for something that could wreak such havoc in so many lives for so many years — when the problem hasn't been resolved.

This, it seems to me, is characteristic of Obama. Before becoming president, he had no experience in executive problem solving. That doesn't make him unique. But that may help to explain some things.

Perhaps, because of the times in which his presidential campaign was waged, Obama got the idea that being president was about two things — blaming someone else when things went wrong and making sure you get credit for showing up when things do go wrong, even if you don't provide a solution or, for that matter, much leadership.

I became accustomed to this approach from the start, when the Democratic Party's congressional lackeys boasted that they were "the jobs squad" after working out a compromise of the economic stimulus package. But when the jobs failed to materialize as advertised, they resorted to the pass–the–buck strategy. That mess we inherited was worse than we thought, they whined.

Meanwhile, millions of Americans who were employed the day Obama was sworn in joined the ranks of the jobless — and statistics suggest that many have remained there. We miscalculated, they said, and then they turned their attention to a Supreme Court nomination that was never in doubt and health care reform that won't begin to go into effect for several years.

I had a hard time swallowing that one. Obama was quite vocal in the fall of 2008 about his concerns for the U.S. economy. We were headed for a second Great Depression if we elected John McCain, voters were warned.

The scare tactics worked. A race that had been close before the economic implosion turned into a borderline landslide.

Now, certainly, there are things that candidates don't know — and won't know until they are approved by the voters and the transition process begins. But it seems to me that it's kind of hard to make a convincing case that you didn't comprehend how bad the economy really was when you used that kind of rhetoric to be elected.

Recent job gains notwithstanding, the stimulus has yet to create jobs at the rate this country needs. Yet, every time that I have heard a congressional Democrat asked in the last 16 months what was being done to create jobs, the response has begun with "Well, this is Bush's fault ..."

I know I can't speak for everyone, but, as one of the unemployed, my (typically mental) response has been "let's fix the problem."

But nearly every word I hear uttered from Obama's defenders is about blame. Not responsibility. Not what is being done to correct the problem. Blame.

Obama doesn't rely on blame as much as his supporters do, but he works his way into that fairly regularly — and subtly — nonetheless. Sometimes it comes in the form of Obama codespeak — "This problem was years in the making" so therefore it will take years to repair.

And sometimes it is implied. Obama doesn't seem to like discussing unemployment. He does it when he has to, like on the first Friday of each month, but not always. Last year, for example, I criticized him on Labor Day for failing to speak publicly about joblessness on that occasion.

I have often thought that Obama simply does not know what to do about unemployment. And I don't fault him for that. It's a daunting problem. There's no doubt it was daunting for FDR. And I suppose, if I were president, I would be tempted to do as Obama has done and quietly hope the problem resolves itself.

But I'm not the president — and FDR knew it was the most urgent problem his administration faced.

And I am certainly not the only one who thinks it is the most urgent problem this administration faces. Obama likes to present himself as proactive, but, truthfully, there is little a president can do to heal an ailing economy. He can encourage policies he believes will help but not much more than that.

I'm sure he feels a sense of outrage that is compounded by the problem in the Gulf, but he may also, as CNN's John Blake writes, be resisting the temptation to be the "angry black man" — because that is an image that many voters find disturbing.

If a president's skilled in the role of Empathizer–in–Chief, which Obama is not, he can address the unemployed in a heartfelt way and assure the voters he is doing everything he can to help them — even if he's really just blowing smoke.

Last week's jobs report gave the administration plenty of smoke to blow, but Bob Herbert of the New York Times saw through it.

"[T]he No. 1 problem facing the U.S. continues to fester," he writes, "and that problem is unemployment."

Whoa, that can't be right, I can hear the Obama defenders saying. Nearly half a million jobs were created in May.

Ah, the deception of numbers. "The government hired 411,000 workers to help with the census," points out Herbert, "but those jobs are temporary and will vanish in a few months." The private sector, meanwhile, turned in a "dismal performance," creating only 41,000 jobs in May.

And oil continues to pour into the waters of the Gulf as it has for more than 50 days.

There was a wonderfully understated — yet, at the same time, so telling — moment in "Thirteen Days," the 2000 big–screen dramatization of the Cuban Missile Crisis. In a conversation with presidential assistant Kenny O'Donnell, President Kennedy says, "I thought there'd be more good days."

I don't know if Kennedy actually said that or if it was a piece of manufactured dialogue, but it would be an appropriate thing for the current president to say. I certainly couldn't fault Obama for bemoaning the fact that there haven't been more good days in his presidency.

Presidencies can be like that, one crisis after another, irrespective of the president's strengths and weaknesses — which brings me to my reason for opening this post with a quote from the 18th Egyptian dynasty.

More than 1,000 years before the birth of Christ, the 18th dynasty ruled Egypt. It may be the most famous dynasty of all, having included King Tut as one of its pharaohs, but I don't think it was responsible for any great achievement — like the construction of the Egyptian pyramids — of which people continue to speak in hushed tones today.

The 18th dynasty appears to have had some fine intellects, though, one of whom (whose name is lost to antiquity) conceived the blessing that is reproduced at the start of this post.

Obama, too, possesses a fine intellect. And, when he began his quest for the presidency, I'm sure he envisioned something entirely different from what has transpired in his first 16 months as president.

But it's what it is.

Obama may find himself traveling in many dark places in the next couple of years. And, whether he leaves behind an achievement that people are still talking about 3,000 years from now or not, I hope that, as he travels to those dark places, God does, in the words of the Egyptian dynasty's blessing, stand between him and harm.

The C Word

The "C" in "C word" doesn't stand for "color" — although I have no doubt that there are those among the Obama apologists who wish it did because that would be something their hero could blame that is beyond his control.

The "C" doesn't even stand for "conference" — as in "press conference," which is something Obama can control, and it's a good thing he held one on Thursday.

I say that not only because it is essential for a president to keep the country informed when the greatest disaster of its kind is happening in the Gulf of Mexico — which it is — but also because, as Doug Mataconis of Outside the Beltway reminded readers on Tuesday, the president's last press conference was nearly a year ago.

On that memorable occasion, Obama criticized the Cambridge, Mass., police for responding to a citizen's complaint and arresting a black man, who turned out to be a noted Harvard professor, for breaking into his own home.

It was also held during prime time, whereas Thursday's soiree was in the afternoon (and, presumably, drew a smaller audience). So, like Roger Maris' single–season home run record, I guess an asterisk is needed — because the clock is still running on Obama's streak between prime time press conferences.

Will the streak live for a year? Less than eight weeks to go. Does anyone know the Vegas odds?

The president pledged an open and accessible presidency, and, in fairness, he has been accessible for one–on–one interviews with some members of the press, usually the ones whose employers already have shown themselves to be editorially sympathetic to Obama's agenda.

A president has many ways of communicating with the people — and, since the Kennedy presidency, the televised press conference has been one of the most effective ways of explaining policy. Not all presidents have excelled at the give and take with the press (JFK did set that bar pretty high), but the nine men who succeeded Kennedy (including Obama — because, after all, no matter how many one–on–one interviews a president does, there's nothing more American, more democratic than an open press conference in which a dozen or more people get the chance to ask the president a question in front of a national TV audience) have utilized it.

In spite of his much–publicized oratorical skills, Obama has been reluctant to hold press conferences. He got off to a rather fast start, holding monthly press conferences in the first couple of months, but the pace of his press conferences seemed to taper off after his faux pas about his bowling skills and the Special Olympics — and was nonexistent after the Sotomayor confirmation hearings last summer.

No, the "C" in "C word" clearly doesn't stand for "press conference" — although maybe it does qualify as a word for which this White House has little fondness. After all, Obama could have used the occasion of Labor Day to hold a press conference and reassure unemployed Americans, who saw their ranks swell by nearly 250,000 the month before, but he did not.

Perhaps he didn't hold a press conference on Labor Day because he was too busy putting the finishing touches on the speech he was scheduled to give to America's schoolchildren the next day.

Or maybe he was too tired after traveling to Cincinnati to give a speech on health care reform on Labor Day.

Well, that's ancient history now, I suppose.

I guess the "C" in "C word" could stand for "crude," as in crude oil. Alphabetically, of course, it could — and perhaps that would be appropriate, given that, during Thursday's press conference, Obama told America that "[rapid response] has been our highest priority since this crisis occurred" more than a month ago.

Perhaps it was just coincidental that, as Obama was saying that, in my mind's eye, I saw the mayor from "Jaws" telling the sheriff "it's all psychological. You yell barracuda, everybody says, 'Huh? What?' You yell shark, we've got a panic on our hands on the Fourth of July."

No, actually, the "C word" is "competence." Sometimes it is expressed directly. Sometimes it is implied.

But that is the buzzword I have been reading and hearing lately. And, upon reflection, it does seem to me that, if it was fair to use that as the standard by which to judge George W. Bush's handling of Hurricane Katrina or Jimmy Carter's handling of Three–Mile Island, it's fair in this case as well.

At first, I guess I tended to brush off criticism as more from the sour grapes crowd. In fact, I think the first article I saw was a double whammy — a column from former Reagan speech writer Peggy Noonan in the Rupert Murdoch–owned Wall Street Journal.

"He was supposed to be competent," moaned the headline on Noonan's column, and I almost didn't bother to read what she had written. But then I did, and I couldn't help admitting there were times when I felt she might be on to something. Like:

• when she started with the observation that "[t]his is his third political disaster in his first 18 months in office. And they were all, as they say, unforced errors, meaning they were shaped by the president's political judgment and instincts."


• or when she wrote that Obama "continues to govern in a way that suggests he is chronically detached from the central and immediate concerns of his countrymen. ... [H]e has not, almost from the day he was inaugurated, been in sync with the center. The heart of the country is thinking each day about A, B and C, and he is thinking about X, Y and Z. They're in one reality, he's in another."
  
  Kind of like that Labor Day thing I mentioned earlier. Seems like an obvious time for a president who is presiding over a nation reeling from an economic crisis to hold a press conference on job creation. And maybe, I mused at the time, that is precisely why he did not hold a press conference. Too obvious. Style would be critiqued with no attention given to substance. The spin would be all about politics.
  
  Well, I mused that at the time. But I never really believed it.
  
  Anyway, the days after Labor Day turned into weeks, and the weeks turned into months. At some point, it became obvious that the press conference on joblessness — which, for months, has been getting the top spot in polls about Americans' No. 1 concern — wasn't coming, that Obama hadn't merely been playing pre–emptive politics by not addressing the issue on Labor Day.


• or when Noonan complained that Obama "repeatedly took refuge in factual minutiae," observing that his professorial demeanor "made him seem like someone who won't see the big picture."
  
  His tendency to lecture isn't too appealing, either.


• or the thing that seems so incredible to so many people — "the way both BP and the government, 40 days in, continue to act shocked, shocked that an accident like this could have happened. If you're drilling for oil in the deep sea, of course something terrible can happen, so you have a plan on what to do when it does.
  
  "How could there not have been a plan? How could it all be so ad hoc, so inadequate, so embarrassing? We're plugging it now with tires, mud and golf balls?"

Peter Wehner also has ties to previous Republican administrations, so you've got to consider the source, but I am compelled to admit that he puts his finger on a problem I have seen in not only Obama but also his most strident supporters.

"Obama is among the most thin–skinned presidents we have had," Wehner writes for Politics Daily. "In Obama's eyes, he is always the aggrieved, always the violated, always the victim of some injustice. He is America's virtuous and valorous hero, a man of unusually pure motives and uncommon wisdom, under assault by the forces of darkness."

It all has a Nixonian feel to it, doesn't it? And, in a telling observation, Wehner writes, "When arrogant men lose control of events it can easily lead to feelings of isolation, to striking out at critics, to bullying opponents, and to straying across lines that should not be crossed."

Shades of Watergate, for sure.

Then Wehner makes another point: "With Obama there is also the compulsive need to admonish others, to point fingers, to say that the problems he faces are not of his doing." He's been president for 16 months now, and he continues to blame his predecessor for everything. I gather, from what I see in the polls and in the primaries that have been held so far, that it's wearing thin, even with those who bent over backwards to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Last week, Obama spoke in the Rose Garden of the "cozy relationship between the oil companies and the federal agency that permits them to drill." Wasn't 16 months enough time to do something — or at least get started on something — about that cozy relationship?

Wehner concludes that Obama "was as unprepared to be president as any man in our lifetime" and he is "overmatched by events."

As I said, you can make a case for disregarding such thoughts from Noonan and Wehner. They have reputations as being among Obama's loyal opposition.

It isn't so easy to overlook what Charles Blow of the New York Times writes.

"People needed to be assured that Obama possessed three basic presidential traits: being informed, engaged and empathetic," says Blow.

• "As for the first trait, he was superb as always. I think amassing facts is his idea of being warm and fuzzy."


• "On the second, he was a bit wobbly."


• "On the third point, empathy, Obama came up short."

And empathy is one of those things Americans want to see in their presidents. Even if there isn't a damn thing the president can do — and there often isn't — people like to know that a president, in Bill Clinton's famous words, feels their pain.

Obama often seems to be above their pain.

The Things With Feathers

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"Hope is the thing with feathers
That perches in the soul
And sings the tune without the words
And never stops — at all

"And sweetest — in the Gale — is heard
And sore must be the storm
That could abash the little Bird
That kept so many warm

"I've heard it in the chillest land
And on the strangest Sea
Yet, never, in Extremity,
It asked a crumb — of Me."

Emily Dickinson

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I've had many thoughts as the enormity of what is happening in the Gulf of Mexico has become apparent.

Some of my thoughts are relevant, and, I suppose, others are tangential.

• One thought I have been having pertains to religious conversations I had with an acquaintance in college.
  
  Now, when it comes to matters of faith, I suppose I'm like a lot of people. There are some things that I believe, and there are other things of which I'm not so sure. And that, I suppose, is what keeps bringing me back to my church, even if I have been away for awhile — a desire to sort them out.
  
  At this stage of my life, there are many things of which I am not certain. But when I was in college, I believed I knew most of the answers. I didn't, of course, but I thought I did.
  
  And this acquaintance was convinced that he, too, had all the answers — about God and the afterlife and the existence of hell and the certainty of the end times as described in the Book of Revelation. His answers weren't like mine, though, and he apparently decided it was his obligation to "save" me.
  
  Problem was, I didn't think I needed to be saved. The mean and vengeful God he kept describing sounded nothing like what my parents had always told me about God. So I defended my image of a loving and compassionate God. And he defended his image of fire and brimstone and eternal damnation. Neither of us budged an inch.
  
  Ultimately, I suppose, we decided to agree to disagree, and we went our separate ways. He probably thought I was a lost cause, doomed to hell, and maybe he was right.
  
  I know I'm not as convinced about some things now as I was then, but one thing that I still believe that I believed in my college days is that humans are obliged to be good stewards of this planet.
  
  We are so obliged because, of all the creatures on earth, we are the smart ones. Every other creature on this planet does things to satisfy its needs without giving any thought to the consequences to others. But only man's activities can completely alter an ecosystem.
  
  And man knows it.
  
  We aren't necessarily superior. But it is humans' ability to think and to reason that sets them apart from all the other creatures."[W]hy did God plague us with the power to think?" asked Henry Drummond in "Inherit the Wind." "What other merit have we? The elephant is larger, the horse is swifter and stronger, the butterfly is more beautiful, the mosquito is more prolific, even the simple sponge is more durable. Or does a sponge think?"
  
  Like Matthew Harrison Brady, I do not know if a sponge thinks. I doubt it. But, if it does, its reasoning cannot possibly be worse than the reasoning of those who found ways to cut corners — and allow man's lust for oil to jeopardize the Gulf of Mexico and all the wildlife who live in and around it.
  
  If there is a hell, surely there is a place in it that is being held for those who allowed this catastrophe to occur.


• I also have been thinking of times I spent on the Gulf coast. I was thinking of one year in particular — which year it was escapes me at the moment, but I'm guessing that I was about 14 or 15 at the time — when our family went to South Padre Island for Christmas, then drove north by northeast until we got to New Orleans and went to the Sugar Bowl.
  
  In those days, my family had one of those tent trailers, and we often slept in it when we went on trips, but, for some reason, as we made our way along the Louisiana coast, we stayed overnight in a very basic travel lodge. The rooms weren't very fancy, but they were roomy enough for a family of four, and they had their own stoves so we could cook our meals there.
  
  I can remember the seawater smell of the harbor that was a short walk from the place where we stayed, and I can remember tasting that smell in the fresh (and dirt cheap) shrimp we bought from the local fishermen. I always loved my mother's cooking — but what she was able to do with that fresh shrimp, some rice and some canned vegetables (plus a few well–chosen spices) simply defied belief.
  
  And I wonder what this oil spill is going to mean to fresh Gulf seafood.
  
  Will future generations be able to enjoy the pleasure of fresh Gulf shrimp?


• Several years later, I went on a trip with my mother to Biloxi, Miss. She loved to jump the waves in the ocean — no matter how old she got, she became almost childlike when she was near the sea — and for some reason the two of us decided to go to Biloxi one summer. I was living in Arkansas, and Mom was living in Texas. We saw each other so rarely that I guess we just decided to take a little trip together.
  
  So we got a motel room on the beach and spent a few days breathing the Gulf air and jumping the waves. At night, we dined on fresh seafood and gazed at the water. From time to time, we saw birds that had been perched on the roof take flight over the water.
  
  It was a memorable trip, a memory that I will always cherish. But I wonder how many such memories will be made in the coming years if the oil slick turns out to be only as bad as — and not worse than — the experts predict.


• Then, a couple of years later, when I was working on the copy desk for a daily newspaper, we began to get word of an oil tanker that had hit a reef in Alaska and spilled a quarter of a million barrels of crude oil into the water.
  
  I am speaking, of course, of the Exxon Valdez disaster. That happened more than 20 years ago. You don't hear much about it anymore, but they are still struggling to clean up the mess.
  
  Granted, it is pretty remote — and relatively confined — but it is not terribly comforting to know that it is far easier to access the Gulf of Mexico than Prince William Sound — nor is it reassuring to think of how vast is the Gulf's area by comparison.
  
  In fact, if the worst–case scenario that I have heard (so far) is correct, the spill in the Gulf exceeded the volume that was spilled into the waters of Prince William Sound sometime on the third day — and crude has been gushing into the Gulf for more than a month now with no indication that man has found a solution.

I know that Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal was panned — and deservedly so — for delivering an, at best, tepid and, at worst, vapid response to Barack Obama's address on the financial crisis in February 2009.

But I have to give the man credit for taking the lead for his state, which is still recovering from the damage left by Hurricane Katrina nearly five years ago.

"We've been frustrated with the disjointed effort to date that has too often meant too little, too late for the oil hitting our coast," Jindal said.

Well, somebody has to stand up for Louisiana. And that's what citizens elect governors for, isn't it?

I guess it's also what presidents are elected to do. But, as Bob Herbert observes in the New York Times, "after more than a month of BP's demonstrated incompetence, the administration continues to dither."

I know there are budget problems out the hoo–ha today. But the oil spill in the Gulf calls for bold leadership now, not dithering. The cost should not be a factor. Nor should anything else other than stopping the flow of oil into the Gulf and devoting all available resources to cleaning up the oil that has been spilled there so far.

And whatever needs be done to rescue the wildlife of the region must be done. The creatures of the Gulf of Mexico are the innocent victims of human greed. No one would mistake me for an environmental activist, but BP must pay a heavy price for what it has done, and the federal government must shoulder the responsibility for repairing the damage.

Blame can be assigned later. The wildlife — and the livelihoods — of the Gulf need to be rescued now.

Sacrifice isn't the sort of thing politicians — especially politicians who belong to the party that is at risk in the upcoming election — want to talk about with their constituents.

But they must be candid with the American people — and they must be insistent about finding answers — whether or not this turns out to be an unusually active hurricane season.

To live up to the lofty promises of hope and change, Obama must be a true agent of change at a time when it is particularly challenging. Obama promised hope and change, but, with health care reform not kicking in for another four years and until unemployment starts making noticeable movement in the right direction, the average voter can look around and say things aren't noticeably better than they were the last time they went to the polls.

By law, a president is elected to a four–year term. But the actual "windows" for tangible achievements are two years and four years. The four–year window is for the president himself, but the two–year window — leading up to the aptly named midterms (because of the resemblance to mid–semester exams in college) — is an assessment time frame with which Obama has no experience, although it will produce the congressional lineup that will affect the president's next two years in office.

Bill Clinton understands it, though. Until the mid–1980s, Arkansas elected its governor every two years, and Clinton understood the psychology that is necessary to be successful in an office that was on the ballot every other year. It didn't help him prevent the tsunami of 1994, but I think he had regained his balance by 1998.

Anyway, I believe most House members (and any governors who live in states that still choose their governor every two years — if there are any) would tell you that the campaign never really ends. Neither do the expectations.

"Hope" made a nice campaign slogan in 2008.

Now, the folks who rode that slogan to victory need to realize that, in the words of Emily Dickinson, hope is the things with feathers.

Gas Prices Going Up Again

It's been less than 12 hours since Hurricane Ike made landfall in the Galveston area, and gas prices are going up again.

"According to a nationwide survey released by the AAA Saturday," writes CNNMoney.com, "the average price of regular unleaded gasoline edged up 5.8 cents to $3.73 a gallon, from $3.675 a day earlier."

Gas shortages are expected because so many Gulf Coast refineries had to shut down.

President Bush says federal officials are monitoring what's happening and will step in if it appears that anyone is trying to take advantage of the situation.

"[T]he Department of Energy, the Federal Trade Commission and, I know, the state authorities will be monitoring the gasoline prices to make sure consumers are not being gouged," Bush said in a brief televised statement this morning.

Last night, the Houston Chronicle reported that the severity of the storm would determine "[h]ow soon refineries can start back up, tanker trucks can fill up at terminals and new supplies reach retailers."

It's still too early to know when that will be.

But this much is for sure:

• One of the refineries is the #1 domestic supplier for the United States, and many of the other affected refineries play significant roles in U.S. energy supply.
• Production and supply experts were telling CNN this afternoon that, even if the shutdowns are temporary, it will be days, if not weeks, before they can get back up to normal capacity.
  
  The restoration of power to the region will have a lot to do with how long the refineries remain shut down.

For the distribution points that depend on those supply lines, it is said that $4/gallon gas is back on the horizon.

Hurricane Ike Approaches Texas

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It now appears to be only a matter of hours before Hurricane Ike slams into the Texas coast.

Ike is currently a Category 2 storm with wind speeds of 105 miles an hour. By the time Ike reaches Texas, the winds may be anywhere from 111 and 155 miles an hour. The storm surge could be as high as 20 feet.

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"If you live in mandatory evacuation areas and the storm surge comes, you won't have a house. It's not a question of riding it out."

Harris County Judge Ed Emmett

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According to the Galveston County Daily News, the storm surge was already causing flooding in Galveston's downtown area this morning.

The Daily News' weather expert, Stan Blazyk, is blunt about the prospects.

"Unless Ike's track takes a sudden and currently unexpected turn to the north well east of Galveston Island, we are facing the highest tidal surge since at least the 1900 Storm," Blazyk writes (referring to the 1900 hurricane that wiped out Galveston), "and possibly even exceeding that if the highest projected tidal surge materializes."

Hurricane Ike Rearranges Football Schedule

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You know people in Texas are getting concerned about a hurricane when football games get postponed.

Saturday's game between my alma mater, the University of Arkansas, and the University of Texas has been postponed for two weeks because of the dire warnings about Hurricane Ike.

Texans are already fleeing the coast ahead of the storm, which is predicted to make landfall sometime early Saturday. Current projections anticipate a Category 3 storm.

The Arkansas-Texas game is supposed to be played in Austin — which lies in Ike's path, even though Austin is roughly 200 miles west-northwest from Galveston on the Gulf coast — but updated projections seem to move the path of the storm away from Austin.

Anyway, the real concern is not so much the hurricane as it is both the unimpeded inland movement of evacuees from the stricken areas and the arrival of the remnants of the hurricane — the wind and the heavy rain — which are predicted to be felt as far north as this area (Dallas) during the weekend.

Both teams have open dates on Sept. 27, so the game has been tentatively re-scheduled for that day. It was originally scheduled to be televised, but that is now undetermined. The time of the kickoff also has not been decided.

The Sept. 27 playing date could still cause headaches for both schools, ESPN says.

"It's the same weekend as the Austin City Limits Music Festival, which annually brings thousands of people to the Austin area. Hotel rooms are difficult to find throughout Central Texas during that weekend. It might be difficult to accommodate the Arkansas team party — much less fans of both schools — because of the festival. And it would also make for a tough stretch for the Longhorns, who start the Big 12 schedule the following week."

ESPN also points out that "Arkansas will also find its schedule more challenging now. The Razorbacks had an open date between games against Alabama and Florida, but now must play the Longhorns in the middle of it."

Well, that's the same three teams the Razorbacks were going to play in the next four weeks, anyway. The difference is that the open date will be this Saturday, not two weeks from now.

But re-scheduling the game won't put the fans or players at risk — unless another hurricane pops up in late September.

ESPN reports that other Texas schools also have made new arrangements for games scheduled for this Saturday:

• The start of the Stanford-TCU game in Fort Worth has been moved up to noon (Central). The game originally was scheduled to start at 6 p.m. (Central).


• Air Force was originally scheduled to play Houston at John O'Quinn Field at Robertson Stadium in Houston. Because of the hurricane, the game has been moved to Gerald J. Ford Stadium at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.

The Austin American-Statesman also reports that more than a dozen area high school football games that were originally scheduled for this Friday have been moved up to tonight.

Ike Meanders Through the Gulf of Mexico

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Hurricane Ike is still making its way through the Gulf of Mexico — and it's still a long way from making landfall.

Experts seems to think it is still likely to make landfall along the Texas coast sometime Saturday morning. As a precautionary measure, some evacuations along the Texas coast were being ordered today.

A high tidal surge is expected in the Galveston area so the evacuation has to be completed by 6 p.m. local time on Thursday. And officials are warning that anyone who stays needs to be aware that there will be times during the storm when no services will be available, when electricity will be out and they won't be able to go out for supplies — "they will absolutely be on their own."

Current projections call for Ike to be a Category 4 storm when it arrives.

And its current path now calls for a rainy weekend in more than half of Texas and Louisiana and in most of Oklahoma and Arkansas.

But Ike's projected path has changed frequently in the last several days so keep an eye on it for awhile.

What a Difference a Day Makes ...

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... in the life of a hurricane.

About 24 hours ago, I was looking at the projected path of Hurricane Ike, which had crossed over Cuba and was hovering over the Caribbean.

As expected, Ike had weakened into a tropical storm during its time on land, but it has shown a tendency to regroup when it gets over water. And it became a hurricane again over those Caribbean waters.

Anyway, at that time, it was expected to make landfall again sometime this afternoon, cross Cuba again, perhaps weakening to a tropical storm again while on land, and then head out to sea, into the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico, where it would strengthen into a significant hurricane, maintaining a west-northwest trajectory.

That projection model took Ike's path to the Galveston area, spreading rain over most of Louisiana and half of Texas by the end of the week.

But the unpredictable nature of hurricanes has shown itself in the last 24 hours.

Ike has proceeded across Cuba again, as expected, but its latest projected path takes it more to the west and less to the northwest.

It barely qualified as a hurricane when it hit Cuba for the second time, but it hadn't spent much time over water before making landfall again.

When it emerges from Cuba, it will have the entire Gulf of Mexico to feed its ravenous appetite.

And that could mean that Ike will be a Category 3 storm when it makes landfall again — wherever that might be. As this storm has demonstrated, long-term projections for hurricanes are virtually useless, and the National Hurricane Center says Ike could make landfall anywhere from northern Mexico to the Texas-Louisiana border.

For awhile Louisiana was out of the picture for significant rainfall, according to the projection, while most of Texas was going to get some rain from Ike.

And the hurricane was expected to make landfall south of Corpus Christi, Texas, instead of near Galveston — which is nearly 200 miles north of Corpus Christi.

But the late afternoon projection today now calls for Ike to make a sudden turn to the right while it's still in the Gulf (its projected path is becoming weirdly reminiscent of Kevin Costner's description of the zig-zag path of the "magic bullet" in "JFK") and may now make landfall near Galveston after all.

And the projection now calls for western Louisiana to see some rain this weekend, along with nearly all of Texas and all of Oklahoma. Western Arkansas should also see some rain, according to the latest projection.

Keep your eyes on this one. It could still do just about anything.

What Will Be Hurricane Ike's Next Move?

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Hurricane Ike made landfall on the island of Cuba and weakened to a Category 1 storm, but its present projected path would take it back over water before long.

And, in Ike's brief but potent existence, the storm has shown a tendency to intensify when it's over water.

It's still far too early to tell what the storm may do. Its current path would take it to the Texas coast, possibly the Galveston area.

But the path could change once the storm begins its trek across the Gulf of Mexico.

The Galveston County Daily News isn't sounding any alarms yet — but it's wisely monitoring the storm's progress.

At this point, that's about all anyone can do.

Hurricane Ike Makes Landfall in Cuba

Hurricane Ike made landfall in Cuba today, and its projected path appears to lead it across the entire island.

After that, it's anyone's guess what it will do. The projected path takes Ike into the Gulf of Mexico, where projections seem to take it west of New Orleans.

But hurricanes can do funny things. At 7 p.m. Central time, the hurricane had sustained winds of 120 miles an hour with higher gusts. It was moving in a westward direction at about 14 miles an hour.

Once the hurricane passes over Cuba and gets into the open Gulf waters, there's no telling what will happen, although the projections call for it to continue moving in a west-northwest direction.

If you live along the Gulf, especially in Texas or Louisiana, keep your eyes on this storm. At the very least, it looks capable of dumping a lot of rain in your area before the end of the week.

There may also be some heavy rain in southern Mississippi and Alabama.

There's Nothing to Like About Ike

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Tonight, Hurricane Ike is continuing its westerly trip through the Caribbean corridor between the tip of south Florida and Cuba.

Tourists and residents of the Florida Keys were told today to pack up and leave. They would be wise to heed the directive. At last report from CNN, Hurricane Ike has been upgraded to a Category 4 with maximum sustained winds of 135 miles an hour.

Based on the latest projections, it's going to come much too close to south Florida for comfort.

Cities like New Orleans and Galveston, Texas, that lie along the coastline of the Gulf of Mexico aren't off the hook. At this point, it's hard to tell what Ike will do once it passes Cuba and Florida.

Coastal officials should keep their eyes on the situation. And remember the old English proverb — Discretion is the better part of valour.

Gustav Makes Landfall

Late last night, I reported what I was hearing from WeatherNerd, which indicated that Hurricane Gustav would not hit New Orleans with the kind of intensity that had been predicted.

This morning, WeatherNerd reports that Gustav is a Category 3 storm, rather than the Category 2 it was predicting last night.

Nevertheless, WeatherNerd asserts, Gustav is really a Category 3 in name only.

And a statement from the National Hurricane Center about four hours ago said that Gustav "is not strengthening" and called its then-estimated wind speed of 115 miles per hour "generous."

According to the most recent information from the Weather Channel, Gustav has, indeed, been downgraded to a Category 2 storm. At 8 a.m. Central time, it was reported to have a wind speed of 110 mph and was moving northwest at 16 mph.

In fact, it does not appear, at this point, that Gustav will be as severe as it was predicted to be only a couple of days ago.

It's always risky to predict what a storm like this will do.

Considering New Orleans' position in relation to sea level and the precarious nature of part of its levee system, some flooding appears inevitable.

And, in a hurricane, it is almost inevitable that some lives will be lost.

But the city looks like it will be spared a repeat of its experience after Hurricane Katrina. Loss of life and destruction of property do not appear likely to happen on a Katrina-like scale.

And, if that's really how it plays out, then the next question to be answered will be this — how will offshore drilling rigs and land-based refineries hold up?

Because if they are damaged, a nation that has already weathered the storm of rapidly escalating gas prices this summer will face another round of price hikes.

And they might not go away soon.

A Break in the Weather?

WeatherNerd is saying that the latest advisory on Hurricane Gustav suggests New Orleans "will most likely dodge a bullet."

Instead of making landfall Monday as a Category 3 or 4 storm, the advisory indicates the hurricane may have weakened to a Category 2.

"There may be significant flooding in the West Bank, but if so, it will be mostly because of the levee system’s fragile and incomplete state," writes WeatherNerd, "not because of anything extraordinary about Gustav."

There will be the usual amount of death and destruction that is always left by such a storm, but the most important WeatherNerd conclusion is this — "we should not see a citywide repeat of Katrina."

That's something to be thankful for.

Change of Plans in St. Paul

The St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports that the Republicans have decided to abbreviate Monday's schedule, performing only the tasks that absolutely must be performed as part of the process of nominating the candidates for president and vice president.

They will be monitoring the progress of Hurricane Gustav, which is expected to make landfall in the New Orleans area sometime Monday.

Beyond the adjustment of Monday's schedule, everything else is "optional," according to Rick Davis, who is John McCain's campaign manager. Party officials will monitor events in the Gulf of Mexico and hold daily briefings to advise members of the press of changes in the daily schedule.

Depending upon what happens with the weather, McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, may have to postpone their acceptance speeches.

Consequently, it appears likely that the 2008 Republican convention will have a different flavor from past conventions — and I'm not just talking about the fact that a woman will be on the ticket.

It's possible that, depending on the circumstances, the Republicans will approve a change in the rules allowing McCain and Palin to give their speeches via video feeds from other locations at a later date.

Thus, the acceptance speeches may not be delivered in front of a convention hall filled with party activists. Perhaps they will be delivered in front of a few hundred supporters — or at a facility housing Gulf Coast evacuees.

It's even possible McCain and Palin won't be in the same city when they give their acceptance speeches.

Wouldn't it be ironic if old man McCain, who admits that there are times when he struggles with modern technology, became the first presidential nominee to deliver his acceptance speech via streaming video?

Radical alterations in the schedule may require the approval of a majority of the delegates, and some of the delegates from states that are expected to be affected by the storm already have left Minnesota, the Pioneer-Press reports.

More Hurricane News

It is about mid-day on Sunday, August 31. The Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin on Monday.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Gustav is churning through the Gulf of Mexico (if you want to see what it looks like from space, see the photograph at right).

According to CNN, President Bush and Vice President Cheney will skip the convention because of the hurricane.

Both men were scheduled to speak to the delegates on Monday night.

CNN reported Saturday night that Republican officials are "considering turning the convention into a service event, a massive telethon to raise money for the Red Cross and other agencies to help with the hurricane."

On the surface, that seems like a generous gesture — although, if it isn't handled correctly, it could be interpreted as a very self-serving move.

CNN also reported last night that four governors whose states are in Gustav's projected path — Bobby Jindal (Louisiana), Haley Barbour (Mississippi), Charlie Crist (Florida) and Rick Perry (Texas) — will skip the convention because of the storm.

Perry had been scheduled to speak on Monday night. Jindal had been scheduled to speak on Wednesday night. Crist was scheduled to speak on Thursday night.

Bush and Gustav

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The Minneapolis Star Tribune is reporting this morning that George W. Bush's plans to attend the Republican National Convention in St. Paul as scheduled on Monday have been put on hold.

Bush, who is scheduled to deliver a speech to the delegates on Monday, is monitoring the progress of Hurricane Gustav in the Gulf of Mexico.

I hope he has thoughts of the Hurricane Katrina experience on his mind — and I particularly hope he has FEMA ready to respond immediately to a crisis.

(That would be appropriate — not only as a way to compensate for FEMA's abysmal record after Hurricane Katrina but also because, ironically, Monday night's theme at the Republican convention happens to be "Country First: Service." This would be a good time for the Republicans to demonstrate their commitment to service in what would certainly be a big way.)

Everyone is welcome to hope and pray that the forecasts are wrong.

But, unfortunately, a crisis situation seems to be headed in New Orleans' direction.

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"You need to be scared and you need to get your butts out of New Orleans right now."

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin

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When New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin called it the "mother of all storms," he wasn't kidding.

When Katrina made landfall three years ago, it was a Category 3 storm. Current projections call for Gustav to be a Category 4 storm when it is predicted to make landfall on Labor Day, according to the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

And, if that is correct, the surge from the storm will overtop the levees that are strong enough to withstand the violence of the storm itself.

The levees that haven't been rebuilt completely may not have a chance against Gustav.

Residents along the Gulf Coast already are evacuating their homes and moving farther inland to escape Gustav's wrath.

If you're in the New Orleans area, pack up what you can and leave.

Now.

Another Ill Wind Heads for New Orleans

It was quite a statement, coming from the man who was New Orleans' mayor three years ago when Hurricane Katrina caused such extensive death and destruction.

A short time ago, Mayor Ray Nagin ordered a mandatory evacuation starting at 8 a.m. on Sunday — but he urged the people of his city to start the evacuation right away.

Hurricane Gustav is taking aim at New Orleans. And Nagin, who lived through Hurricane Katrina and FEMA's feeble response to the tragedy, described it as "the mother of all storms" and "the storm of the century."

Observing from afar, as I do, I can only hope that the forecasts will be wrong and something will happen to spare the people of New Orleans from having to go through another disaster.

But if they do, though, I hope the federal response is faster and better prepared than it was in 2005.

Meanwhile, George W. Bush is scheduled to give what amounts to his farewell address to the delegates in the opening session of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn., on Monday night.

Sam Youngman writes, in The Hill, that Bush does not plan to attack Democratic nominee Barack Obama in his speech.

"White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said that Bush's remarks will express gratitude to his friends and supporters, and he will explain why he thinks Republican candidate John McCain should be president," Youngman writes. "Perino said Bush will not make a case for his legacy, and he will not go after McCain's opponent."

That's a wise decision — especially when you consider that America may be revisiting the scene of the Bush administration's greatest domestic failure while he gives his speech.

But you know what would be an even greater show of wisdom?

Staying on top of the weather reports, staying in touch with the Louisiana governor and New Orleans mayor — even if Bush is scheduled to give his speech in a matter of minutes — and being ready to order FEMA to respond immediately to a crisis.

The country needs to see Bush actively responding to the emergency. It doesn't need to see Bush reading another book about a pet goat.

That's what leadership is about.