And the Winner Is ...

The Democrats have maintained their hold on the 20th District House seat in New York.

For nearly two decades, Republicans held the 20th, until Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand won the seat in 2006. Gillibrand was re–elected in 2008, but she was appointed to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate in January, making a special election necessary to replace her in the House.

The vote tabulation took nearly a month to complete, but Democrat Scott Murphy now appears to have won by 399 votes.

Republicans had hoped for an electoral backlash against Barack Obama's stimulus package and budget in the form of a victory in the 20th District, but they were disappointed.

And now, Stuart Rothenberg rubs some salt in the Republicans' electoral wound by writing in Roll Call that the suggestion that the Republicans can recapture the House next year is "lunacy and ought to be put to rest immediately."

Rothenberg points out that three prominent Republicans — House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, former Speaker Newt Gingrich and campaign consultant Tony Marsh — did not predict the 40–seat shift that would be needed for a GOP takeover. They merely said it was possible.

Rothenberg is adamant, though. "It isn't (possible)," he states.

"[T]here are no signs of a dramatic rebound for the party, and the chance of Republicans winning control of either chamber in the 2010 midterm elections is zero," Rothenberg writes. "Not 'close to zero.' Not 'slight' or 'small.' Zero."

To achieve the kind of massive swing that the Republicans need, it is necessary for there to be a wave of public dissatisfaction of tsunami–like proportions. "You can cherry–pick your way to a five– or eight–seat gain, but to win dozens of seats, a party needs a wave," Rothenberg writes.

But — the recent "tea parties" notwithstanding — no such wave appears to exist.

"Waves are built on dissatisfaction and frustration, and there is little in national survey data that suggest most voters are upset with President Barack Obama's performance or the performance of his party," Rothenberg writes.

"Obama's job approval generally falls between 55% and 63%, and his personal favorable numbers are as strong or slightly better. The trend line on the right direction/wrong track question shows a growing optimism, as do attitudes about the direction of the economy."

A lifetime of observing politics in this country has taught me never to say "never." We're only about one–third of the way through 2009. Who knows what might happen between now and November 2010?

Polls are only snapshots of opinion at a moment in time. But the numbers, Rothenberg says, "show a public that is more upbeat than it was before the last election, and optimism produces status quo elections, not an electorate demanding change."

Rothenberg concedes there are millions who disagree with Obama's policies, "[b]ut those people have never liked Obama, and more importantly, they don't come close to constituting a majority of Americans.

"Most Americans — even many of those who are still worried and pessimistic — are willing to give Obama more time and to give him the benefit of the doubt."

Voter patience is not infinite. But the voters seem to understand that it was an extensive mess the new president inherited and, as long as the voters are willing to give Obama that benefit of the doubt, the prospects will remain bleak for Republicans.