Would Rudy Split the GOP?

A source in the Dallas Morning News suggests that the nomination of Rudy Giuliani to head the Republican ticket in 2008 will lead to a split in the Republican ranks, resulting in a third-party candidate who espouses traditional Republican positions on social issues like abortion, gay rights and gun control.

The outcome of that, the head of the Morley Institute for Church and Culture told the Dallas newspaper, would be the "siphoning off" of 5-10% of Republican votes -- and the election of the Democratic nominee, presumably Hillary Clinton.

Giuliani may have been the man at Ground Zero on September 11, 2001. And many people may be supporting him now because of their memories of his role on that day. But it remains to be seen if, as the Dallas Morning News suggests, "The Giuliani campaign is ground zero in the fight over the future of the religious right."

Giuliani's campaign is clearly counting on the belief that religious conservatives are more concerned about national security right now than they are about social issues. But that would mark a radical shift for them, a shift I'm not convinced has occurred.

If another terrorist attack happens, national security will become the top issue for both parties -- and all bets are off. But the more distance there is between 9-11-01 and the primaries, the more likely it is that voters in both parties will forget how it felt on that day. And the more likely it is that voters in both parties will continue to vote on pre-9/11 concerns.

Stay tuned.