The Senate Races in 2008, Part I

The U.S. Senate was left virtually split down the middle after last year's elections. With almost exactly a year to go before the 2008 election, you might think the only race that matters is the presidential race, but one-third of the Senate seats will be voted on next year and two-thirds of those seats are being defended by the Republicans.

I want to examine each seat, but one article on all the Senate seats that are up next year would be almost book-length! So I'm going to break it up. Today, we take a look at part I.

REPUBLICAN SEATS
* Jeff Sessions, Alabama: When I was growing up, major office-holders across the South were Democrats. Many Southern natives were Democrats because the Republicans had always been blamed for Reconstruction. But Alabama has been moving in the direction of the Republicans since the civil rights days of the 1960s. Sessions will be seeking his third term as a senator from Alabama. He won with 52% of the vote in 1996, and he was re-elected in 2002 with 59%. I've heard nothing to indicate that he faces any serious opposition next year.
* Ted Stevens, Alaska: Appointed to his seat in 1968, Stevens will be 85 by the time the next batch of senators is sworn in. But he's been easily re-elected in the past, and he's been a vocal advocate of Alaska in Congress. There's no reason to think he won't be re-elected if he runs in 2008.
* Wayne Allard, Colorado: When he was elected to the Senate in 1996, Dr. Allard (a veterinarian) pledged to serve only two terms. We are nearing the end of his second term, and Allard is leaving the Senate. The Colorado seat will be one that will attract a lot of attention in 2008, and many observers think it's possible the Democrats will win the seat. Rep. Mark Udall, son of Mo Udall, is favored.
* Saxby Chambliss, Georgia: Six years ago, Saxby Chambliss won the Senate seat then held by Max Çleland, a veteran of Vietnam who lost both legs and an arm in that conflict. Chambliss' campaign, run at a time when Republicans did not control the Senate and they needed a majority to ensure themselves of a powerful position when the Iraq War got started, took aim at Cleland in some dubious advertisements that linked Cleland to Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. Georgia is another Southern state that has trended toward Republicans, and it seems likely that Chambliss will win re-election.

* Larry Craig, Idaho: Democrats haven't won a statewide race in Idaho since the Frank Church days -- and it's been nearly 30 years since Idaho voters rejected Church when he sought his fifth term in the Senate. It remains to be seen if Craig's infamous arrest in the Minneapolis airport forces him to resign or to not seek re-election, but it seems likely that, whether Craig is on the ballot or not, Republicans will continue to hold his seat in the Senate. However, the Republicans may actually have to wage a fight to keep it.
* Pat Roberts, Kansas: Political attention in Kansas may have been on Roberts' colleague, Sam Brownback, and his recent decision to withdraw from the presidential campaign, but now Roberts will be the center of attention back home. Elected to replace retiring Sen. Nancy Landon Kassebaum in 1996, Roberts faced only Libertarian and Reform Party opponents in 2002 and won re-election with 83% of the vote. Kansas is a Republican state and likely to return Roberts to the Senate next year.
* Mitch McConnell, Kentucky: As Minority Leader, McConnell is the top-ranking Republican in the Congress. There is talk of a Republican challenger for McConnell's seat, but I haven't heard anything about a Democratic challenger. So it seems likely the seat will stay in Republican hands.
* Susan Collins, Maine: Collins may well be one of those Republicans who pays the price for the growing unpopularity of George W. Bush and the war in Iraq. Both John Kerry and Al Gore carried the state against Bush. Collins appears to be vulnerable. Republicans will have to fight hard to keep this seat.
* Norm Coleman, Minnesota: Coleman is another Republican who is considered vulnerable in 2008. After incumbent Paul Wellstone was killed in a plane crash just before the 2002 election, Walter Mondale stepped forward to run in his place and was defeated by Coleman. Minnesota is a Democratic state historically, although Republicans have enjoyed a few victories there in recent years. Even so, Democrats feel they have a good chance to win the seat and will be targeting it in 2008. One of the prominent names being mentioned as a Democratic challenger to Coleman is comedian Al Franken.
* Thad Cochran, Mississippi: Thad Cochran has been in the Senate for nearly 30 years. Against only a Reform Party opponent in 2002, he received more than 80% of the vote. Against a Democratic opponent in 1996, Cochran took 71% of the vote. He may hold the safest seat in the Senate.
* Chuck Hagel, Nebraska: Hagel has announced his intention to retire from the Senate. At first glance, one would assume that the seat will remain Republican, but the question is whether former Sen. Bob Kerrey, a Democrat, will run for it. Kerrey was governor of Nebraska for four years and senator for 12 years. He decided not to seek re-election in 2000, but he has been publicly pondering the possibility of seeking Hagel's seat. If Kerrey seeks the seat, it will make the Nebraska race one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the nation.

A glance at the 11 Republican-held seats we've examined today, I think 7 of them appear likely to remain with the Republicans. But 4 seats are clearly in jeopardy. The seats in Colorado and Nebraska will have no incumbent running, and the future of Nebraska's seat is clearly linked to the decision yet to be made by former Sen. Bob Kerrey. Two other seats, in Maine and Minnesota, will have Republicans defending their seats against a significant effort by the Democrats.

Breaking News, October 24 -- Kerrey will not seek Hagel's Senate seat, and Republicans should be breathing a sigh of relief over that. It means Democrats will have to nominate a lesser candidate to seek the seat in heavily Republican Nebraska.

If Democrats carry those four seats, Republicans will have to carry at least that many Democratic-held seats to stay even, and the Democrats are only defending about a dozen seats in 2008.