This Should Really Be the Final Election of 2008

Two congressional districts in Louisiana are holding elections today. They are holding these elections now because the process was delayed by Hurricane Gustav.

Notorious Rep. William Jefferson is running for re-election — and appears to be the favorite — in the 2nd District. The race in the 4th District is to replace the retiring incumbent. The district leans Republican. So a split appears possible. In fact, it appears likely.

At the moment, Democrats hold a 255-176 advantage in the House. Two other races remain unresolved. The Republican candidate in Virginia's 5th District wants a recount, and the race in Ohio's 15th District appears to be headed for court.

Once those four House races — and the still-unresolved Senate race in Minnesota — are settled, the new Congress will be ready to begin its work.

Gustav Makes Landfall

Late last night, I reported what I was hearing from WeatherNerd, which indicated that Hurricane Gustav would not hit New Orleans with the kind of intensity that had been predicted.

This morning, WeatherNerd reports that Gustav is a Category 3 storm, rather than the Category 2 it was predicting last night.

Nevertheless, WeatherNerd asserts, Gustav is really a Category 3 in name only.

And a statement from the National Hurricane Center about four hours ago said that Gustav "is not strengthening" and called its then-estimated wind speed of 115 miles per hour "generous."

According to the most recent information from the Weather Channel, Gustav has, indeed, been downgraded to a Category 2 storm. At 8 a.m. Central time, it was reported to have a wind speed of 110 mph and was moving northwest at 16 mph.

In fact, it does not appear, at this point, that Gustav will be as severe as it was predicted to be only a couple of days ago.

It's always risky to predict what a storm like this will do.

Considering New Orleans' position in relation to sea level and the precarious nature of part of its levee system, some flooding appears inevitable.

And, in a hurricane, it is almost inevitable that some lives will be lost.

But the city looks like it will be spared a repeat of its experience after Hurricane Katrina. Loss of life and destruction of property do not appear likely to happen on a Katrina-like scale.

And, if that's really how it plays out, then the next question to be answered will be this — how will offshore drilling rigs and land-based refineries hold up?

Because if they are damaged, a nation that has already weathered the storm of rapidly escalating gas prices this summer will face another round of price hikes.

And they might not go away soon.

A Break in the Weather?

WeatherNerd is saying that the latest advisory on Hurricane Gustav suggests New Orleans "will most likely dodge a bullet."

Instead of making landfall Monday as a Category 3 or 4 storm, the advisory indicates the hurricane may have weakened to a Category 2.

"There may be significant flooding in the West Bank, but if so, it will be mostly because of the levee system’s fragile and incomplete state," writes WeatherNerd, "not because of anything extraordinary about Gustav."

There will be the usual amount of death and destruction that is always left by such a storm, but the most important WeatherNerd conclusion is this — "we should not see a citywide repeat of Katrina."

That's something to be thankful for.

Change of Plans in St. Paul

The St. Paul Pioneer-Press reports that the Republicans have decided to abbreviate Monday's schedule, performing only the tasks that absolutely must be performed as part of the process of nominating the candidates for president and vice president.

They will be monitoring the progress of Hurricane Gustav, which is expected to make landfall in the New Orleans area sometime Monday.

Beyond the adjustment of Monday's schedule, everything else is "optional," according to Rick Davis, who is John McCain's campaign manager. Party officials will monitor events in the Gulf of Mexico and hold daily briefings to advise members of the press of changes in the daily schedule.

Depending upon what happens with the weather, McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, may have to postpone their acceptance speeches.

Consequently, it appears likely that the 2008 Republican convention will have a different flavor from past conventions — and I'm not just talking about the fact that a woman will be on the ticket.

It's possible that, depending on the circumstances, the Republicans will approve a change in the rules allowing McCain and Palin to give their speeches via video feeds from other locations at a later date.

Thus, the acceptance speeches may not be delivered in front of a convention hall filled with party activists. Perhaps they will be delivered in front of a few hundred supporters — or at a facility housing Gulf Coast evacuees.

It's even possible McCain and Palin won't be in the same city when they give their acceptance speeches.

Wouldn't it be ironic if old man McCain, who admits that there are times when he struggles with modern technology, became the first presidential nominee to deliver his acceptance speech via streaming video?

Radical alterations in the schedule may require the approval of a majority of the delegates, and some of the delegates from states that are expected to be affected by the storm already have left Minnesota, the Pioneer-Press reports.

More Hurricane News

It is about mid-day on Sunday, August 31. The Republican National Convention is scheduled to begin on Monday.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Gustav is churning through the Gulf of Mexico (if you want to see what it looks like from space, see the photograph at right).

According to CNN, President Bush and Vice President Cheney will skip the convention because of the hurricane.

Both men were scheduled to speak to the delegates on Monday night.

CNN reported Saturday night that Republican officials are "considering turning the convention into a service event, a massive telethon to raise money for the Red Cross and other agencies to help with the hurricane."

On the surface, that seems like a generous gesture — although, if it isn't handled correctly, it could be interpreted as a very self-serving move.

CNN also reported last night that four governors whose states are in Gustav's projected path — Bobby Jindal (Louisiana), Haley Barbour (Mississippi), Charlie Crist (Florida) and Rick Perry (Texas) — will skip the convention because of the storm.

Perry had been scheduled to speak on Monday night. Jindal had been scheduled to speak on Wednesday night. Crist was scheduled to speak on Thursday night.

Bush and Gustav

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The Minneapolis Star Tribune is reporting this morning that George W. Bush's plans to attend the Republican National Convention in St. Paul as scheduled on Monday have been put on hold.

Bush, who is scheduled to deliver a speech to the delegates on Monday, is monitoring the progress of Hurricane Gustav in the Gulf of Mexico.

I hope he has thoughts of the Hurricane Katrina experience on his mind — and I particularly hope he has FEMA ready to respond immediately to a crisis.

(That would be appropriate — not only as a way to compensate for FEMA's abysmal record after Hurricane Katrina but also because, ironically, Monday night's theme at the Republican convention happens to be "Country First: Service." This would be a good time for the Republicans to demonstrate their commitment to service in what would certainly be a big way.)

Everyone is welcome to hope and pray that the forecasts are wrong.

But, unfortunately, a crisis situation seems to be headed in New Orleans' direction.

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"You need to be scared and you need to get your butts out of New Orleans right now."

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin

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When New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin called it the "mother of all storms," he wasn't kidding.

When Katrina made landfall three years ago, it was a Category 3 storm. Current projections call for Gustav to be a Category 4 storm when it is predicted to make landfall on Labor Day, according to the New Orleans Times-Picayune.

And, if that is correct, the surge from the storm will overtop the levees that are strong enough to withstand the violence of the storm itself.

The levees that haven't been rebuilt completely may not have a chance against Gustav.

Residents along the Gulf Coast already are evacuating their homes and moving farther inland to escape Gustav's wrath.

If you're in the New Orleans area, pack up what you can and leave.

Now.

Another Ill Wind Heads for New Orleans

It was quite a statement, coming from the man who was New Orleans' mayor three years ago when Hurricane Katrina caused such extensive death and destruction.

A short time ago, Mayor Ray Nagin ordered a mandatory evacuation starting at 8 a.m. on Sunday — but he urged the people of his city to start the evacuation right away.

Hurricane Gustav is taking aim at New Orleans. And Nagin, who lived through Hurricane Katrina and FEMA's feeble response to the tragedy, described it as "the mother of all storms" and "the storm of the century."

Observing from afar, as I do, I can only hope that the forecasts will be wrong and something will happen to spare the people of New Orleans from having to go through another disaster.

But if they do, though, I hope the federal response is faster and better prepared than it was in 2005.

Meanwhile, George W. Bush is scheduled to give what amounts to his farewell address to the delegates in the opening session of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn., on Monday night.

Sam Youngman writes, in The Hill, that Bush does not plan to attack Democratic nominee Barack Obama in his speech.

"White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said that Bush's remarks will express gratitude to his friends and supporters, and he will explain why he thinks Republican candidate John McCain should be president," Youngman writes. "Perino said Bush will not make a case for his legacy, and he will not go after McCain's opponent."

That's a wise decision — especially when you consider that America may be revisiting the scene of the Bush administration's greatest domestic failure while he gives his speech.

But you know what would be an even greater show of wisdom?

Staying on top of the weather reports, staying in touch with the Louisiana governor and New Orleans mayor — even if Bush is scheduled to give his speech in a matter of minutes — and being ready to order FEMA to respond immediately to a crisis.

The country needs to see Bush actively responding to the emergency. It doesn't need to see Bush reading another book about a pet goat.

That's what leadership is about.