In 2002, not far removed from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks and with Republicans pushing to give the president the authority to invade Iraq before it could use all those weapons of mass destruction, Americans gave Republicans a rare triumph in mid-term elections for the party in power.
House members are voted on every two years. As the public has soured on Iraq, many of the House members who favored invading Iraq already have been voted out of office.
This year is the public's opportunity to render a verdict on the senators who won their seats in 2002.
About two-thirds of them are Republicans.
The popularity of the "Republican brand" has declined dramatically in recent years, making this election a decidedly bitter harvest for the Class of '02, with the financial crisis, rising unemployment, rising food and energy prices, as well as an unpopular war, all blamed on the party that controlled both the White House and the Congress for most of the last eight years.
The outlook is dire. While that is seldom given as a reason for not seeking re-election, the truth is that nearly half a dozen duly elected Republican senators are not running for another term. And Democrats appear to be running strong campaigns in all of those states — as well as states where the incumbents are seeking re-election.
All the Democrats who were elected to the Senate in 2002 are running again, and with a little more than a week remaining in the campaign, it looks like all of them — even Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, who was believed to be in trouble several months ago — will be returned to office.
(The House is rarely mentioned in political conversations these days. The Democrats control the House, and the assumption is they will build on their advantage. In the 2006 elections, the party went from being in the minority — 232-202 with one independent — to being in the majority — 233-202.
(This year, the Democrats have been taking aim at seats they figured they should have captured last time but didn't — for whatever reason. I'm inclined to believe they'll gain about 12 seats, improving their total to 245 while the Republican total slides below 200 to about 190.)
Aside from the presidential race, I expect most attention to be on the Senate. The 2006 elections actually produced a tie in party affiliation, 49-49, with two independents who caucus with the Democrats.
In 2008, I have heard no one suggest that the Democrats will not win enough seats to claim a true majority — even though one of the independents, Joe Lieberman, was a Democrat who had to run in the 2006 general election as an independent because he lost the state's Democratic primary.
The questions revolve around whether the Democrats can win enough seats to claim a "filibuster-proof" majority of 60.
(Lisa Mascaro writes, in the Las Vegas Sun, about the public's intense interest in the "supermajority" that comes with having 60 votes to bust filibusters.
(Mascaro observes, "In many ways, today’s narrowly divided Senate is not a working majority for Democrats, said Donald A. Ritchie, the associate Senate historian. At 51 seats to 49, the Senate in essence has two minority parties, and no majority.")
Since it's not likely that either of the independents in the Senate will suddenly start caucusing with the Republicans, that means the Democrats probably need to win nine seats to reach 60.
To reach the point where it doesn't matter whether the independents caucus with the Democrats, the party needs to win 11 Senate seats from the Republicans.
Either one is a tall order. Can they do it?
(Republicans can probably count on holding the following seats without too much trouble — Alabama, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Thad Cochran's seat in Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee and the two seats in Wyoming.)
Here are the seats that are currently held by Republicans that are worth watching on Election Day:
- Alaska — Not too long ago, I would have thought that unseating Ted Stevens in Alaska would be almost impossible.
Now, I think his chances of being re-elected depend on the verdict in his corruption trial.
Polls show a tight race between Stevens and Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich.
I think what happens in Stevens' trial — assuming a verdict is reached before Election Day — will determine who wins the election.
If he's acquitted, I think Stevens will be re-elected — barely. If he's convicted, I think Stevens will lose. - Colorado — If 2008 is truly a transformational election, I believe Colorado will play a key role. The state has voted for every Republican nominee but one in the last 10 elections, but it has been a little more receptive to Democratic candidates for statewide office.
Republican incumbent Wayne Allard is retiring this year, and Democrat Rep. Mark Udall appears to be building a fairly solid lead in the race to replace him.
I predict Udall and the Democrats will win the seat. - Georgia — Polls suggest that Saxby Chambliss is clinging to a narrow lead over challenger Jim Martin.
However, there's a fly in the ointment. A third-party candidate on the ballot appears to be drawing some support — not much, but enough to make things interesting.
My understanding is that Georgia law requires a candidate in a statewide race to receive 50% of the vote "plus one." If no one reaches that level of support, a runoff will be held between the top two vote-getters in December.
(To my readers in Georgia: If I'm wrong about that point of your state's election law, please let me know!)
Wouldn't it be ironic if Chambliss — who won his seat by smearing the Democratic incumbent, triple amputee Vietnam veteran Max Cleland, six years ago — was forced into a one-month runoff campaign and had to face the nominee of the recently electorally empowered Democratic Party as his party's last line of defense against a "filibuster-proof" majority?
Actually, if Chambliss is in trouble on Election Night, I think it will be indicative of more severe problems the Republicans are having elsewhere. My guess is, if Chambliss is forced into a runoff, the Democrats will already hold the "filibuster-proof" majority and will be looking to add to their gains.
I predict a narrow win for the Republicans. - Kentucky — As is the case in the Georgia race, if the incumbent (in this instance, Mitch McConnell) is in trouble on Election Night, the Republicans are having bigger problems elsewhere.
But if the election turns out to be a tsunami for Democrats, McConnell belongs on the endangered list.
Kentucky is a conservative state, though, and I think it will vote for the McCain-Palin ticket as well as re-elect McConnell. - Minnesota — I've been hesitant to call this one for the Democrats, but lately I feel the momentum is in favor of comedian Al Franken.
Minnesota still leans Democratic. I think the election of Norm Coleman six years ago was a fluke. And I think Franken has tapped into the liberalism of Minnesota (which, by the way, hasn't voted for a Republican for president since Richard Nixon ran for re-election in 1972 — the longest pro-Democratic streak in national politics).
I think Franken re-claims the seat for the Democrats in November. - Mississippi — I've truly been baffled by this race. Trent Lott suddenly vacated the seat last year. The governor appointed a Republican to temporarily replace him, with a special election scheduled for this fall. The replacement, Roger Wicker, is seeking the voters' approval to finish the rest of Lott's term.
Wicker's main problem, in the eyes of observers, is that he's never won a statewide office. His Democratic opponent, former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, has won statewide office.
But Wicker seems like a good fit for Lott's old seat. He began his political career as Lott's counsel.
I predict Wicker will keep the seat in Republican hands. - New Hampshire — In 2002, against the backdrop of the Republican drumbeat for war against Iraq, New Hampshire chose Rep. John Sununu, a Republican, over Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.
Six years later, Shaheen is challenging Sununu in his bid for re-election. Polls have suggested the former governor has a sizable lead.
I've been expecting Sununu to have trouble ever since Election Night in 2006, when Democrats won the governor's office and both seats in the House and took control of the state legislature. It was clear to me, on that night, that things were changing in the formerly rock-ribbed Republican Granite State.
We had hints that such a shift was coming in 2004, when New Hampshire was the only state that supported Bush in 2000 and rejected his bid for a second term.
Now the transformation is in full bloom.
Shaheen will win the seat for the Democrats. - New Mexico — Pete Domenici is retiring because of his health. The New Mexico Republican Party doesn't seem to be in very good shape right now, either.
The Democrat, Rep. Tom Udall, appears to have a wide lead over Republican Rep. Steve Pearce.
Looks like a pick-up for the Democrats. - North Carolina — Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole is seeking a second term against state senator Kay Hagan. The polls suggest a close race.
Dole has high favorable ratings. If a political tsunami sweeps across the country on Nov. 4, some Republicans in the South may be in trouble.
But I get the feeling that, if Dole is in trouble on Election Night, the GOP has some real problems to address in the rest of the country.
I predict she keeps her seat — barely. - Oregon — Sen. Gordon Smith is a moderate Republican in a state that is increasingly Democratic. Polls indicate that he is having trouble in his campaign against Democrat Jeff Merkley.
Democrats have been emphasizing a desire to win the seat in Oregon, and I think the chances are good they'll pull it off. - Texas — No, I don't think Republican Sen. John Cornyn is in any kind of electoral trouble.
But recent polls have suggested that he's in a tight race against Rick Noriega. I live in Texas so I'll keep an eye on the results.
But I expect the Republicans to keep the seat. - Virginia — Former Democratic Gov. Mark Warner is running against former Republican Gov. Jim Gilmore for the seat being vacated by Republican Sen. John Warner.
I don't believe Virginia will be in the Democratic column in the presidential race, but I do believe Mark Warner will win the Senate seat for the Democrats.
Warner has been in control of the race all along. I expect him to win with about as much ease as a Democrat can muster in Virginia.
It's not quite the "filibuster-proof" 60 — but, if they already have 57 or 58 votes, Democrats probably can cobble 60 together if they need to.
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