"It could be that college students will do like they do everything else: cramming for a test, or whatever, and procrastinate."
Susan MacManus
Political scientist
University of South Florida
In spite of a number of efforts to mobilize young voters, an article in the Orlando Sentinel hints that electoral participation by people under the age of 35 may not be as great as change-minded activists supporting Barack Obama have been hoping it will be.
Aaron Deslatte and Vicki McClure report in the Sentinel that the early voting period in Florida has drawn large numbers of blacks, older voters and Democrats.
"But voters younger than 35 — especially the college-age group that has drawn so much attention from Democrat Barack Obama's campaign — are doing what they have largely done in elections past: staying home."
The Sentinel says that, of the nearly 1.5 million people who voted in the first nine days of early voting in Florida,
- nearly one-quarter were black,
- more than half were over 55
- and more than half were Democrats.
Political observers were encouraged earlier this year by the turnout among young voters in the primaries and caucuses that propelled Obama to his nomination. Under-performing during the casual early voting period — in which roughly one-fifth of Florida's voters have already voted, ostensibly to avoid even longer lines on Election Day — does not logically imply greater participation by young voters in this election.
Democrats have been expecting increases in participation by blacks and Democrats.
Considering the financial crisis, older voters may be up for grabs in this election, although they have tended to vote conservatively in past elections. Thus, it is harder to draw conclusions about the early turnout among those over 55.
More than 30 states allow early voting. Unlike elections past, few — if any — require voters to justify their decision to cast what once was called an "absentee" ballot.
As a result, reports Jennifer Steinhauer of the New York Times, voters who have made up their minds have been descending upon polling places in record numbers.
If the Sentinel's figures are representative of the rest of the nation, blacks have been energized by the presence of a black candidate on the ballot, and Democrats have been energized by conditions that favor their candidates.
Older voters may be motivated, as one voter told the New York Times, by the prospect of voting quickly.
Arthur Schuetz, 62, voted in Nevada earlier this week and told the Times, "In New Hampshire where we came from, it is not socially acceptable to do anything but go to the polls on Election Day and stand in the snow talking with all your neighbors. But here you can vote in five minutes and go home. It’s super."
But Obama and the Democrats have been depending upon increased participation among young voters to close the deal.
What will happen if young voters don't participate?
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