More Endorsements

If the polls are to be believed (and there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about that), what happens in the South on Election Day may not matter.

But if it turns out that the race is close, this item I'm about to mention could have a lot of significance.

Anyway ...

In 2004, there weren't many Southern newspapers that endorsed John Kerry's campaign for the presidency against President George W. Bush.

Whether that played a major role in Bush's sweep of the South, I don't know. But Bush received 58% of the vote in the South — a far higher share than he received anywhere else.

John McCain has not received the endorsement of many newspapers that endorsed John Kerry in 2004 — while Barack Obama has been endorsed by several newspapers that backed Bush last time.

But, recently, McCain has picked up the endorsements of four Southern newspapers that supported Kerry.

For the most part, I would classify these publications as small, community newspapers. Nearly all of them have circulations that are well below 100,000 — and the one exception just barely cracks that barrier.

Thus, it is far from certain that these newspapers have much influence — or even, for that matter, exposure — with the voting public. Of course, in the internet age, a newspaper's endorsement has the potential to reach far beyond its physical audience.

But it can be revealing to read what these papers have to say about the presidential race:

• The Bradenton Herald in Florida (circulation 48,618) tells its readers:
  
  "We commend Obama for making history by becoming the first African American to stand before the country as his party’s nominee for president. He has waged a worthy campaign, one focused on the theme of change. We heartily agree that change is paramount, but we hold fundamental philosophical differences with his plans for the nation. And we do not believe that a candidate full of promise and hope but lacking in experience can lead the country through these troubled and demanding times."


• The Jackson Sun in Tennessee (circulation 32,121) also has generous words for McCain's opponent.
  
  "We don't doubt that McCain's opponent, Sen. Barack Obama, is a man of great intelligence, political potential and an exciting candidate," writes the Sun. "But right now, given the nation's challenges, we need the proven leadership of John McCain. He is the right candidate at the right time."


• The Corpus Christi Caller-Times in Texas (circulation 53,368) says the "outstanding" candidacies of both nominees is "a refreshing change in presidential elections."
  
  "This is a choice between a candidate of great promise and a candidate who is a proven commodity," the paper says. Like the others, it states a preference for the "proven commodity."


• The Daily Press of Newport News, Va. (circulation 103,308) likewise favors McCain's experience.
  
  But the Daily Press brings up another point.
  
  "When the bright light of electoral politics revealed some unappealing associates — including the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, former Weatherman radical William Ayers, a corrupt Chicago political machine and convicted felon Tony Rezko — Obama's modus operandi has been to deny, then defend and eventually distance himself from political embarrassments."

How much will these endorsements influence the outcome in these states?

Well, my guess is that the Caller-Times' endorsement won't have much effect in Texas, where a preference for McCain among the voters seems certain — even though some of the larger newspapers (i.e., the Houston Chronicle and the Austin American-Statesman) that endorsed Bush in 2004 have endorsed Obama.

Tennessee, as a border Southern state, may not be influenced much by the Sun's editorial. Voters there may be more likely to be influenced by three larger newspapers — in Memphis, Nashville and Chattanooga — that have endorsed Obama — if those voters are likely to be influenced by a newspaper's endorsement at all.

Like the Sun, all three of those newspapers favored Kerry in 2004, but Tennessee voted for Bush. I have rarely heard anyone say that Tennessee would be in play in November — and I haven't heard it at all since the conventions.

The other two endorsements, however, came in states (Florida and Virginia) that have been described as "swing" states that the Obama camp believed it had a reasonable chance to win.

It's still possible that Obama could win in Florida and/or Virginia.

But he'll have to do so in spite of large military populations in both states — and that's a demographic group that has demonstrated a consistent loyalty to Republican candidates over the years.