Friday, October 17, 2008

Will He or Won't He?


The election of an African-American president “would be electrifying,” Powell told a George Washington University audience, "but at the same time [I have to] make a judgment here on which would be best for America."

CNN's Political Ticker


Former Secretary of State Colin Powell is scheduled to appear on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday.

And there's a lot of talk about whether Powell will take the opportunity to endorse Barack Obama or John McCain.

Mike Allen speculates, on Politico.com, that Powell will endorse Obama's presidential campaign.

"The general’s camp is being coy about what he might or might not say on Sunday," Allen writes. "But some McCain advisers suspect, without being sure, that Powell will endorse Obama. 'It’s going to make a lot of news, and certainly be personally embarrassing for McCain,' a McCain official said. 'It comes at a time when we need momentum, and it would create momentum against us.'"

CNN's Alexander Mooney joins in with his speculation on Powell's intentions in CNN's Political Ticker blog.

Ann Althouse, a law professor and blogger, chimes in in her blog, "[W]hy else would they book him on the third-to-the-last show before the election?"

Well, NBC may want to get some insight from a former secretary of state about the world situation. The financial crisis has dominated news reports lately (and deservedly so), but the fighting goes on in Iraq and the problems with Iran and Korea — and other nations in the world — haven't gone away.

It's obvious that the next president will have to confront the financial crisis immediately, but he will also face an increasingly unpredictable international situation — especially in the Middle East.

Four years ago, Osama bin Laden caught nearly everyone by surprise by releasing a video taped message the weekend before the election.

In his message, bin Laden said he personally directed the Sept. 11 hijackers and said George W. Bush had been negligent prior to the attacks. Many pollsters reported that surveys indicated movement in Bush's direction after the video tape was aired.

Joseph Nye recalls, in the Financial Times, that bin Laden's 2004 message affected voters by reminding them of the Sept. 11 attacks.

Put in the context of the 2008 campaign, Nye writes, "Americans are transfixed by the aftermath of the September surprise in financial markets. Could there be a very different surprise coming in October?"

NBC may want to ask Powell what he believes the terrorist leader may do between now and the 2008 election. Will he do something similar in an attempt to influence the outcome?

"There can be no doubt that Saddam Hussein has biological weapons and the capability to rapidly produce more, many more."

Colin Powell
Speech to the U.N. Security Council, Feb. 5, 2003


Also, Powell has served the last three Republican presidents in high-profile positions, and he considered running against the last Democratic president — as a Republican.

All of which would make a Powell endorsement of Obama really big news.

But, beyond the 24-hour news cycle such an endorsement would surely dominate, how much value would it have?

I guess that may depend — at least in part — on the outcome of the corruption trial of Sen. Ted Stevens.

Just last week, Powell testified in court on Stevens' behalf, saying that the Alaska senator had a "sterling" character and was "a trusted individual whose word you could rely on."

If Stevens is acquitted before the election, Powell's endorsement might have some benefit for its recipient.

But if he is convicted — or if the trial is still being conducted when the voters go to the polls — Powell's endorsement might not mean much.

Personally, I can't see the man who urged the United Nations (and, in the process, persuaded millions of fence-sitting Americans) to support an invasion of Iraq choosing to endorse Obama.

"I suffer no illusions about Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal man. A ruthless man. A man who butchers his own people to secure his own power. ... The world, and the Iraqi people, would be better off without him. But I also know that Saddam poses no imminent and direct threat to the United States, or to his neighbors ... and that in concert with the international community he can be contained until, in the way of all petty dictators, he falls away into the dustbin of history."

Illinois State Sen. Barack Obama
Oct. 2, 2002


Nor, for that matter, can I see Obama, who has made a point of emphasizing his opposition to the war, welcoming Powell's endorsement.

Unless he does so (cynically) on racial grounds.

And, if that's the case, is it still off the table to discuss Obama's association with Rev. Jeremiah Wright?

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