Forget the Money — Show Me the Votes

Missouri is the Show-Me State and, come November, both Barack Obama and John McCain will be hoping that the Show-Me State will show them some votes.

Because Missouri has a century's worth of being on the winning side in presidential elections in its political history.

Since 1904, Missouri has only been on the losing side once (1956 — when it chose challenger Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower).

A presidential nominee would be justified if he believed that winning Missouri would be a good omen.

Neither of the state's senators will be on the ballot this year, so the presidency is virtually the only race in which all the voters in Missouri can participate.

The state will be electing a new governor this year. The incumbent, Republican Matt Blunt, decided not to seek another term when his approval ratings began to mirror George W. Bush's.

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics says the governor's race in Missouri is shaping up to be a "toss-up."

The Republicans will choose their nominee for governor on Aug. 5. Their options are 9th District Rep. Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman. Apparently, Attorney General Jay Nixon is unopposed on the Democratic side.

Although the Republican governor is unpopular, Sabato says Missouri has been "trending much more Republican in general." And its representation in Congress remained the same (at 5-4 in favor of the Republicans) after the votes were counted in the Democratic year of 2006.

I wish I could say I have as much political knowledge as Michael Barone, the co-author of the biennially published Almanac of American Politics.

I've been reading the Almanac since Richard Nixon was president, and I've learned so much from it. But I don't know as much as Barone does about American voting trends. I really admire the depth of his knowledge.

But, I guess, if there's a place in this country in which I've never lived but I nevertheless feel I know something about, it would be the 9th District of Missouri.

One of my closest friends — in fact, we've called each other "best friend" for more than 30 years — lives in the 9th, which includes most of the northeastern quadrant of the state.

The district excludes the city of St. Louis and the county it occupies, but my friend's home county lies just within the 9th's borders west of St. Louis.

I've visited my friend on several occasions. I was saddened a few months ago to learn of the death of my friend's sister-in-law — a fine lady I'd known since I was 16 who lived in northeastern Missouri all her life.

And I've remained on friendly terms with my friend's ex-wife, who still lives in the area.

And I'm the godfather of their daughter, who also lives in the area.

I have another friend who lived in the 9th district for awhile. He was a Ph.D. student at the University of Missouri so he was in Columbia for a few years, and I had the pleasure of visiting him there.

When you're in Columbia, you're still in Missouri's 9th — just barely. But if you drive just a short distance to the south, you'll find yourself in the 4th. And if you drive a similarly short distance to the west, you'll be in the 6th.

Obviously, from Columbia, it's not exactly a trip to another planet to go to a different congressional district. But, in terms of the people who represent those three districts from Missouri, there can be a world of difference.

Two of the districts (the 6th and the 9th) are represented by Republicans. The 4th has been represented by the same Democrat (Ike Skelton) for more than 30 years.

The 76-year-old Skelton, who has compiled a mostly moderate voting record, seems to be in fine shape to hold the seat as long as he wants. And Sabato says the other two districts are likely to remain represented by Republicans when the new Congress assembles in January:

• In the 6th, incumbent Sam Graves is facing former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes.
  
  To date, the campaign has been aggressive with a heavy barrage of advertisements. But, while "both sides feel this is a competitive race," according to Sabato the district is "likely Republican."
  
  And Graves' increasingly conservative voting record doesn't seem to hurt him with the voters of the 6th.


• It probably helps to have an incumbent in the race. In the 9th, as I said earlier, Hulshof, who has represented the district since 1996, decided to run for governor when Gov. Blunt chose not to seek another term.
  
  And that leaves an open seat in the 9th.
  
  "[T]his race is as crowded as Arrowhead Stadium on a November Sunday," Sabato writes, observing that five Republicans and four Democrats will be competing for the nominations next month.
  
  If the money that has been raised is any indication, the November race will be between two state representatives — Democrat Judy Baker and Republican Bob Onder.
  
  Even though the nominees are as yet unknown, Sabato says the district "leans Republican."
  
  That's not an unreasonable assertion. The district is 92% white, more than 50% rural, and it has re-elected Hulshof by comfortable margins. It also voted for Bush both times, giving him better than 55% of its vote.

Missouri is just about in the center of the country — in more ways than one.

It's a state that bears watching on Election Night.