Down to the Wire Again in Ohio?

Four years ago, Ohio was considered a key to victory for John Kerry and George W. Bush. And it lived up to expectations, helping provide Bush with his electoral majority.

No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio — and Ohio has developed a well-deserved reputation for being a bellwether state. It has been in the winning column in every presidential election except two since 1892.

The two exceptions were 1944 (when it voted for Thomas Dewey against Franklin D. Roosevelt — Dewey's running mate, it is worth pointing out, was from Ohio) and 1960 (when it voted for Richard Nixon against John F. Kennedy).

And it's typically decided by razor-thin margins.

With neither a Senate seat nor the governor's office on the ballot, the main attractions for voters this year (excluding the Obama-McCain campaign itself) may be races for House seats.

Although the Ohio Republican Party was facing some problems in 2006 — and ultimately wound up losing the governor's office and one of the Senate seats — the party retained its edge in House representation. The Republicans lost a couple of seats but remained the state's majority party in the House.

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics says that, of the 18 districts in the state of Ohio, there are five races worth watching:

• The 1st sits in the southwestern corner of the state and includes the city of Cincinnati.
  
  It has been represented by Republican Steve Chalbot since 1994, but it has been competitive on the presidential level on a regular basis. It narrowly supported George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 — in 2004, in fact, it endorsed Bush by a margin of 3,261 votes out of more than 300,000.
  
  So this could be fertile territory for the Democrats' ticket in 2008, no matter what's happening between Chalbot and his challenger, state Rep. Steve Driehaus, whose campaign is being assisted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
  
  And history suggests that Chalbot is capable of turning back tough challengers. It remains to be seen if he can defeat one who is being financed by the DCCC.
  
  Chabot's voting record in the House has been generally conservative. Like his party's standard-bearer, he has been known to be a political maverick, willing to take risks for principle.
  
  Sabato says the district is likely to remain Republican.


• The 2nd is next door to the 1st, snaking its way along Ohio's southern border. It is the home of another Republican incumbent, Rep. Jean Schmidt, who is in a rematch with physician Victoria Wulsin.
  
  Two years ago, Schmidt defeated Wulsin by less than 2,600 votes out of less than 240,000 — in a district that routinely gave Bush more than 60% of its votes in the last two presidential elections.
  
  Part of Schmidt's problem may be her tendency to commit gaffes — especially her infamous advice on Iraq to colleague (and military veteran) John Murtha on the House floor: "[C]owards cut and run."
  
  The 2nd leans strongly Republican, but Schmidt hasn't proven to be the vote getter her party would like. Can she hold on to the seat? Like the 1st District, Sabato says the 2nd "leans Republican."


• In the 15th, GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce decided to retire after eight terms in the House. She has tended to be extremely conservative on economic issues, more moderate on social and foreign issues.
  
  Sabato rates the district a toss-up. The campaign matches 2006 Democratic nominee Mary Jo Kilroy (who lost by less than 1,100 votes) and state Sen. Steve Stivers (who also happens to be an Iraq War veteran).
  
  The district (which includes the city of Columbus) is a tough one to call. Pryce was re-elected there in 2004 with 60% of the vote while Bush beat John Kerry there by a handful of votes.
  
  Sabato says the race should be an "interesting backdrop" to the presidential campaign in the state.


• The 16th is also an open seat. With Republican Ralph Regula's retirement, Democrats are sensing another opportunity to pick up a seat — even though the district, as Sabato points out, has been reliably Republican in presidential elections.
  
  The candidates in the northeastern Ohio district (that includes the city of Canton) are a couple of state senators — Democrat (and Iraq War veteran) John Boccieri and Republican Kirk Schuring.
  
  In Boccieri's case, the unpopularity of the Iraq War in the 16th could work against him. That's a factor political observers will be watching as the campaign plays out.


• The 18th is represented by Democrat Zack Space, who was elected to replace Bob Ney in 2006.
  
  Republicans have been taking aim at the "accidental congressman" and nominated Ohio's former agriculture director, Fred Dailey, to oppose him.
  
  Considering the district's history of supporting Republican presidential nominees, it seems plausible for Republicans to think they have a chance to retake the seat. But Sabato insists it is likely to remain in the Democratic column.
  
  Both parties' congressional campaign committees are getting involved in the race, and it should be interesting to see which one prevails.

As always, Ohio will bear watching on Election Night.