Specter Speculation

Bill Kristol is relentlessly optimistic. He never sees a cloud that doesn't have a silver lining for the Republican Party, even when the cloud is the defection from the party's ranks of a veteran senator.

In the Washington Post, Kristol writes that yesterday's announcement that Pennsylvania's Arlen Specter is joining the Democrats is good news for the Republicans.

At first blush, that may seem ludicrous. Republicans have lost their hold on 14 Senate seats since matching their post–Depression high of 55 in 2004. If Al Franken assumes the Senate seat from Minnesota — as now appears likely — Democrats will hold the presumably "filibuster–proof" 60–seat majority they openly coveted during the 2008 campaign.

But Kristol believes this can be a good thing for the GOP.

Barack Obama and the Democrats, he writes, will "be responsible for everything. GOP obstructionism will go away as an issue, and Democratic defections will become the constant worry and story line. This will make it easier for GOP candidates in 2010 to ask to be elected to help restore some checks and balance in Washington — and, meanwhile, Specter's party change won't likely have made much difference in getting key legislation passed or not. So, losing Specter may help produce greater GOP gains in November 2010, and a brighter Republican future.

"Plus, now the Democrats have to put up with him."

The impact of the 60–seat majority on next year's elections remains to be seen, but history does provide ample evidence of the lack of discipline among Democrats — and the price they have paid for it.

As I observed yesterday, Jimmy Carter was the last president whose party held such an advantage in the Senate, but it didn't help him too much. The absence of unity in the Democrats' approach to governing enabled Republicans to chip away at the majority in the midterm elections of 1978, followed by the loss of a dozen seats in the Republican landslide of 1980.

In the 1960s, Democratic Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson built an even greater Democratic majority in the Senate, exceeding two–thirds of the Senate membership, but Republicans gradually chipped away at the deficit until being sidetracked by the Watergate scandal.

And Harry Truman, whose Democrats reclaimed majorities in both houses of Congress while Truman was winning his "upset" victory in the 1948 presidential campaign, handed control of Congress over to Dwight Eisenhower and the Republicans four years later.

I am reminded, in an odd way, of something Gene Wilder (as Willy Wonka) said to Charlie Bucket at the end of the 1971 film "Willy Wonka & the Chocolate Factory:"

"Charlie, don't forget what happened to the man who suddenly got everything he always wanted," Wonka said.

"What happened?" Charlie asked.

"He lived happily ever after," Wonka replied.

Specter may have given the Democrats everything they wanted, but history suggests it is unlikely that they will live happily ever after.

As this political drama plays out over the next couple of years, I urge you to remember the words of Will Rogers:

"I am not a member of any organized party — I am a Democrat."