* John Sununu, New Hampshire: I think New Hampshire is a wild card in the bunch. In presidential politics, it narrowly supported George W. Bush in 2000, then narrowly opposed his bid for re-election in 2004. Sununu has been generally conservative in the Senate, but he hasn’t always supported Bush. He was elected to his first term in 2002, by just under 20,000 votes. New Hampshire likes to be unpredictable. I’m withholding judgment on which party will win the Senate seat there, but it sounds like Sununu is having problems with the former governor, Jeanne Shaheen, he beat last time.
* Pete Domenici, New Mexico: We’ve already mentioned in this blog that Domenici will be retiring from the Senate due to health problems, and the vacancy could be an opening for Democrats. If popular Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson decides to seek the Senate seat, he could well win. If Richardson isn’t his party’s nominee for the Senate, the Republicans might hold on to the seat. This is one that could go either way. It will depend on which names are offered to the voters.
* Elizabeth Dole, North Carolina: The popular wife of former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole turned back former Clinton Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles to win her first term in the Senate in 2002. I haven’t heard of any issues that might cause her problems, and I think the seat is likely to remain Republican in 2008.
* James Inhofe, Oklahoma: Inhofe was elected to replace outgoing Sen. David Boren in 1994 when Boren decided to retire to accept the presidency of the University of Oklahoma. I was living in Oklahoma at the time, and I felt then -- and I feel now -- that Inhofe is likely to be able to hold the seat as long as he wants.
* Gordon Smith, Oregon: Against an Independent opponent in 2002, Smith was elected by 56% to 40%. Oregon is one state where turning out your voters really is important. It’s a state that is virtually split down the middle concerning Democratic and Republican allegiances. If what the experts are saying about Republicans not being very motivated and Democrats being highly motivated to vote in 2008 is true, Smith could be in trouble.
* Lindsey Graham, South Carolina: Strom Thurmond’s successor in the Senate was one of the leaders of Bill Clinton’s impeachment in the House in the late 1990s. He votes along conservative lines about 90% of the time, but his positions on judicial nominations and immigration have caused him some problems with conservatives in his home state. The Republicans are likely to hold the seat, but it will be interesting to see what happens with Graham’s Republican base.
* Lamar Alexander, Tennessee: Alexander has been a perennial candidate in Tennessee for a generation. He hasn't always succeeded. However, he did serve as governor from 1979 to 1987, so Tennessee voters have had a long time to become acquainted with him. They got to know him in other posts as well. He was president of the University of Tennessee for a few years after he stopped being governor, and he was secretary of education under the first President Bush. Just before his election to the Senate, he was a professor at Harvard's JFK School of Government. Alexander's record is generally conservative, but he's not as hard-line on social issues as many conservatives would like. The seat is likely to remain Republican. The question is, will Alexander carry the GOP banner, or will Republicans nominate someone else to do it?
* John Cornyn, Texas: As someone who lives in Texas, it's hard for me to believe that Cornyn's first term in the Senate is almost over. He was elected to replace retiring Sen. Phil Gramm in 2002, defeating Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk by about half a million votes. I haven't seen anything to indicate a shift in Texas politics, but it was a little surprising in 2006 when Democrats swept city and county judicial races in Dallas County. I had no idea that was coming, and I don't know if it represents a long-term trend in Texas. But, right now, I see no reason to look for Cornyn to be unseated.
* John Warner, Virginia: Warner has already announced his plans to retire in 2008, and I think the Virginia Senate race will be closely watched by a lot of people, especially after Democrat Jim Webb defeated incumbent Republican George Allen in the Senate race in 2006. I think the seat could go to the Democrats, but we'll need to see who gets the nominations -- former Gov. Mark Warner (no relation, as far as I know) seems to be the favorite among the Democrats right now.
* Michael Enzi, Wyoming: Earlier this year, the National Journal declared Enzi the sixth-most conservative member of the Senate. Seems like he's a good fit for the job. If he seeks re-election, he should have no trouble winning.
Next, we'll look at the Democratic-held Senate seats that are up for election in 2008.
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