The Expectations Game

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was the subject of my post yesterday. And he's continuing to get press attention today.

David Yepsen of the Des Moines Register tells readers today that Huckabee's success is being fueled by a "Reagan-like spirit" at precisely the time when the Republicans are looking for someone like Ronald Reagan to lead their party.

Huckabee has been the talk of Iowa since finishing a strong second to Mitt Romney in a straw poll in August. Now, almost exactly two months before Iowans hold their caucuses, the talk centers on whether he can win the GOP caucus in early January.

Romney has a huge edge in financial support, but he can't match Huckabee when it comes to sounding like a populist Republican. In fact, none of the other Republicans can.

Huckabee has drawn criticism for implementing a tax increase as governor. That tax increase was supported by the voters. In his defense, Huckabee says, "You always ought to be governing by your basic principles, but you also have to understand that government has to work."

It's that kind of understanding of how government works that has helped governors be uniquely suited for the task of being president. Voters keep electing them, at least. Since 1976, five men have been elected president and four were either former or sitting governors (Carter, Reagan, Clinton and George W. Bush). The exception, George H.W. Bush, had executive experience as the sitting vice president.

Yet Romney hasn't demonstrated the governor's kind of understanding of how government operates. And that may spell disaster for Romney when the Iowa caucuses are held.

And yet ...

Conservatives aren't altogether willing to embrace Huckabee just yet. In fact, the Washington Times says conservatives are wondering if Huckabee can keep evangelicals in the GOP tent instead of bolting to form a third party.

I find it interesting that the conservative Washington Times quotes none other than Phyllis Schlafly as saying that many of the evangelical Christians who "sold" voters on George W. Bush eight years ago are trying to do the same thing with Huckabee now.

In that same article, tax-cut advocate Grover Norquist is quoted as saying Huckabee is "the only Republican in Arkansas who can beat a Democrat for the Senate."

If I read that correctly, Norquist is suggesting that Huckabee should withdraw from the presidential race and run for the Senate next year. The problem with that is, the Senate seat that is up for election in Arkansas in 2008 belongs to Mark Pryor, the son of popular former Gov. and former Sen. David Pryor, who was a fixture in state politics for four decades.

Pryor defeated the last Republican incumbent senator from Arkansas, and I doubt he would have any trouble dispatching Huckabee in a Senate race. Suggesting that Huckabee return to Arkansas and run for the Senate is like suggesting political suicide. At least in 2008.

Roger Simon of The Politico says Huckabee just isn't conservative enough to suit some people.

I'm not sure if he's right about that. But Simon might be on to something when he says that Huckabee's real problem with some fiscal conservatives may be that he's "anti-greed," which is an unusual position for a Republican.

Simon cites another good Huckabee quote in making the point. “I am not interested in being the candidate of Wall Street but of Main Street. CEOs get paid 500 times what the average worker does, but they are not necessarily 500 times smarter or harder-working, and that is wrong.”

Expectations for Huckabee continue to evolve. It will be interesting to see where the expectations stand around Christmas, which will be about a week before the Iowa voters hold their caucuses.