The 'God-o-Meter' Revisited

I'll admit it. I couldn't help myself.

When I told you about the Beliefnet.com "God-o-Meter" last weekend, I bookmarked it and decided to keep up with its ratings.

I find this fascinating because I think the presence or absence of the evangelical vote could be a huge factor in next year's elections. And I do think it's possible that many evangelicals won't vote next year. If they do vote, will they stay with the Republicans? Will they switch to the Democrats? Will they support a third party?

Often, a voting bloc is as noteworthy for what it doesn't do as for what it does. When a group feels demoralized and taken for granted, many members of that group may choose not to participate.

Evangelical voters may not be a significant part of the Democrats' primary electorate, but they will be part of the general election electorate. It will be interesting to see what Democrats do to attract them for the fall election.

We already know that evangelical voters played a decisive role in re-electing George W. Bush in 2004. And their consistent support for Republican candidates helped ensure two terms in the White House for Ronald Reagan and one for George H.W. Bush, not to mention Republican majorities in the Senate in the 1980s and Republican majorities in both houses of Congress in the 1990s and the first half of this decade.

But the Republicans have failed to show much competence in Bush's second term, from the mishandling of the war to the bungled response to Hurricane Katrina -- and, seemingly, everything in between.

And the majority of evangelical voters are not only anti-abortion, anti-gay rights, anti-gun control; they are also attracted to the Republican tradition of fiscal responsibility.

These voters also display a compassionate side on issues that have historically been important to Democrats -- global warming, environmental issues, energy conservation, medical support for victims of AIDS and cancer, stem cell research.

Many evangelicals supported the Iraq War until they realized that the Republicans weren't competent directing the war, they weren't living up to their reputation for fiscal responsibility, and they weren't committed to the social issues the evangelicals cared about.

But Democrats haven't come up with workable -- and passable -- solutions for governing since winning control of Congress last year.

Some of the most interesting developments in the latest "God-o-Meter" ...

* Former Arkansas Gov. and Baptist preacher Mike Huckabee has slipped from near the top to the middle of the pack with comments about negotiating with Middle Eastern countries. It appears he's traded places in the Republican rankings with ...

* Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who has surged by saying the kinds of things that religious voters like to hear. He's rated slightly ahead of ...

* Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, who nevertheless has improved her rating lately. It didn't hurt that she reminded voters that, in her youth, she was a "Goldwater girl." But the Democrats who are getting the best religious ratings -- equal to McCain -- are ...

* Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico.

Obama has been making news everywhere, including this blog, for his "40 Days of Faith and Family" tour of South Carolina that prominently features gospel concerts and faith forums. It seems to have backfired a little. His rating dropped a bit in the "God-o-Meter."

So it's hard to tell what the evangelical voters will do next year.