Saturday, October 6, 2007

Competitive Campaigns and Inevitability

Democrats who want a candidate who will be competitive in every corner of the country might want to give John Edwards a look.

Recent polls may show Edwards trailing Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the nomination, but polls also show him with the best chance of winning a general election showdown against any of the potential Republican nominees.

That includes a poll showing him beating every prospective GOP nominee in Oklahoma, where no Democrat has won since Lyndon Johnson narrowly defeated Barry Goldwater there in 1964.

Many observers have eagerly hung the "front-runner" label on Mrs. Clinton. Being the front-runner and being the nominee are two very different things. Sen. Edmund Muskie was thought to be unstoppable in his bid for the 1972 Democratic nomination, but the party nominated Sen. George McGovern instead. In 1988, at various times leading up to the primaries, Mario Cuomo and Gary Hart were thought to be the favorites on the Democratic side, but Michael Dukakis captured the nomination.

George H.W. Bush and Bob Dole turned out to be the nominees, as expected in 1992 and 1996, but they had to fend off challenges from Patrick Buchanan before ultimately winning hard-fought nominations.

Let's wait until they hold the caucuses in Iowa and the primary in New Hampshire before we proclaim anyone the front-runner.

John Edwards will appear on NBC's Meet the Press, airing at 9 a.m. (Dallas time) Sunday.

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