Who Are The Front Runners?

Adam Nagourney, in today's New York Times, points out that, on the Republican side, "three very different states -- with dissimilar electorates driven by distinctive sets of priorities -- have embraced three separate candidates" in the party's pursuit of a nominee to succeed George W. Bush.

Mitt Romney won the Michigan primary last night, capturing 39% of the vote. New Hampshire primary winner John McCain came in second with 30% and Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee was third with 16%. Romney's delegate total is now 36; McCain and Huckabee each have 19.

As a result, Nagourney concludes, "[T]his is a party that is adrift, deeply divided and uninspired." The coalition that was cobbled together by Ronald Reagan, and was held together for many years by Bush, has fractured, with elements scattering to different candidates.

The New York Post, in its blunt manner, asserts that "The GOP race has now descended into total chaos."

Is the situation any clearer on the Democratic side? Not really.

With the names of Barack Obama and John Edwards absent from the Michigan ballot, Hillary Clinton figured to cruise to an easy victory. And, while she staked out a lead and held onto it through the night, Clinton finished with only 55% of the vote. Michigan's Democrats who opted for an "uncommitted" slate of delegates numbered at 40%. A weak field, including Chris Dodd who dropped out of the race more than a week ago, accounted for the rest of the votes.

National polls show Clinton leading among Democrats, but the margin seems to be disputed. Reuters reports that Clinton and Obama are virtually tied nationally, with Clinton claiming 39% and Obama claiming 38%. The USA Today/Gallup Poll gives Clinton a wider lead, 45% to 33%.

Interestingly, despite all of the talk after the Iowa caucuses about a "movement" in Obama's direction, none of the major national surveys have shown him in the lead.

But, even with all the states that are holding primaries and caucuses on Feb. 5, states still vote individually, and polls are showing a statistical dead heat between Obama and Clinton in the next Democratic confrontation this weekend in Nevada's caucuses.

And South Carolina, which holds its Democratic primary a week from Saturday, is leaning to Obama, 38% to 33%, according to Rasmussen.

The only thing that seems clear to me at this point is that neither party is likely to have chosen its nominee by the time the dust settles on what is now being called "Tsunami Tuesday."