The Effect of Iowa on New Hampshire

If you've been wondering what kind of impact the Iowa caucuses may have on the New Hampshire primaries, perhaps the latest survey results from Rasmussen will answer your questions.

On the Democratic side, Rasmussen says Barack Obama now leads Hillary Clinton by 10 percentage points, 37% to 27%, in the only post-Iowa poll of New Hampshire Democrats I've seen to date. John Edwards is the only other Democrat who scores in double digits -- he has 19%.

Rasmussen's poll of New Hampshire Republicans finds John McCain leading with 31% and Mitt Romney running second with 26%. The result, as Rasmussen points out, is almost an exact reversal of a survey conducted just prior to Christmas.

New Hampshire's voters go to the polls on Tuesday, so there isn't much time to turn things around.

Historically, Iowa is a mixed bag, when it comes to predicting the eventual nominee in either party.

For the Democrats, the winner in Iowa has gone on to win the last three nominations (John Kerry in 2004, Al Gore in 2000, and Bill Clinton in 1996). Iowa supported favorite son Tom Harkin in 1992 and Dick Gephardt from neighboring Missouri in 1988. Walter Mondale won Iowa and the party nomination in 1984, and President Carter won Iowa in 1980, but an "uncommitted" slate finished first in 1976 and 1972.

For the Republicans, the last four GOP nominees finished first in Iowa (George W. Bush twice, Bob Dole in 1996 and George H.W. Bush in 1992), but only an unopposed Ronald Reagan won both Iowa and the party nomination (in 1984) in the 1980s.

Is it true, as Roger Simon writes in The Politico, that "Hillary should be running scared?"

He cites as an example George H.W. Bush's "retooling" after he finished third in the 1988 Iowa caucus.

Bush, he writes, "took off his coat and tie and put on a parka and a green-and-white baseball cap from East Coast Lumber and went to the Cuzzin Ritchie’s Truck Stop ... He drove an 18-wheel Mack truck, had a friendly snowball fight with reporters and transformed his image from that of a privileged preppie 'wimp' to that of a regular guy."

Bush's transformation led to some jokes from the late night crowd, Simon recalls. "Johnny Carson said in his monologue:" '[Bush] went into a truck stop wearing a pair of overalls, but he had a little alligator sewn over the pocket.'

When Bush's press secretary was asked what was behind the change, he replied, “We’re running scared.”

Bush went on to win the New Hampshire primary, the Republican nomination and the general election. Does Mrs. Clinton need to be retooled?

About three hours to go until tonight's debates ...