Saturday, January 5, 2008

And Now, On To New Hampshire

CNN reports that the new front-runners in both parties, Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, arrived in New Hampshire on Friday and attempted to capitalize on their Thursday night victories in the Iowa caucuses.

According to Rasmussen Reports, there are "no national front-runners." But as the winners of the first electoral activity in the presidential election season, Obama and Huckabee each have their own challenges to face as the scene shifts to New Hampshire.

For Huckabee, the challenge is to broaden his appeal beyond the evangelical Christians who powered his victory in Iowa. That group is not as influential in New Hampshire as it is in Iowa, so this is Huckabee's opportunity to demonstrate his voter appeal beyond his base.

According to an American Research Group survey completed in New Hampshire on Thursday, John McCain, with 35%, has taken the lead from Mitt Romney, with 25%. Huckabee is more than 20 percentage points behind McCain in that poll.

For Obama, the message in New Hampshire continued to be "change" as he spoke there Friday. Hillary Clinton continued to insist that she is the only candidate with the experience to make change possible.

Journalist Carl Bernstein told CNN that Clinton was "wounded" by her third-place finish in Iowa.

And CNN reports that John Edwards "seemed to suggest ... Clinton's third-place finish in Iowa may have rendered the New York senator effectively out of the presidential race." I'm not sure that's what Edwards was implying. If it was, he may have been indulging in some wishful thinking. With her resources, Clinton is indeed prepared to go the distance, even if she has a few early setbacks.

American Research Group finds a battle building between Clinton and Obama in New Hampshire. Its latest survey shows Clinton with 35% and Obama with 31%. Both candidates gained four percentage points since the last survey a couple of days after Christmas; Edwards dropped six percentage points during that time.

Fred Barnes writes in the Weekly Standard that Clinton's aura of "inevitability" is gone as a result of the caucuses.

Barnes also observes that Huckabee "proved to have impressive campaign skills that may allow him to reach beyond the conservative Christian base responsible for his victory."

The New York Times warns, "It is dangerous to draw too many conclusions from the Iowa caucuses -- a telegenic display of activism by a tiny slice of Americans."

Even so, the Times concedes, "Some powerful political currents were on display in Iowa, starting with a yearning for change and inspirational leadership among Democrats."

And that wasn't all, the Times points out. "Republicans, too, talked about change, but mostly it was changing their association with President Bush."

We'll find out in a few days how the messages of change play with New Hampshire's voters.

Tonight, you can see the Democratic and Republican hopefuls debate in Manchester, N.H., on ABC starting at 7 p.m. Eastern time, 6 p.m. Central time.

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