The McCain Mutiny

After duplicating his success there eight years ago, John McCain now ventures from the inviting and familiar New Hampshire terrain into South Carolina, where the George W. Bush campaign rallied in 2000, administered an ultimately fatal blow to McCain's candidacy and went on to capture the nomination.

Returning to South Carolina must not bring back pleasant memories for the Arizona senator.

But before that is the Michigan primary, where McCain triumphed over Bush eight years ago. And today is the time to reflect on New Hampshire.

With that in mind, Ruth Marcus of the Washington Post calls McCain "the man who won't go away."

In the New York Times, David Brooks says the 2008 election season has been more about surprises than about change, and he lists the top 10 surprises that New Hampshire had in store for the country last night.

The top surprise, he says, is that "Republicans voted in nearly the same numbers as Democrats." That is a surprise in a year when Republicans are supposed to be demoralized and Democrats are supposed to be eager to vote.

If New Hampshire Republicans were eager to vote on Tuesday, it was to show their support for John McCain. New Hampshire Republicans, unencumbered by links to ethanol the way Iowa voters seem to be, gave 37% of their votes to McCain, while Mitt Romney took 32%. Mike Huckabee, the winner in Iowa, was third with 11%.

Michael Luo, in the New York Times, writes that the Republican race today is "more scrambled than ever."

In Michigan, Romney can lay claim to family ties. He grew up there, and his late father is still fondly remembered by the natives. But Michigan is what is known as a "crossover" state, where a registered voter can participate in either the Republican primary or the Democratic primary, and McCain beat Bush there eight years ago on the strength of his support from Democrats and independents.

If McCain is to have a chance of winning South Carolina, he needs the momentum he can have if Michigan supports him again. And Romney just needs a victory in a contested state. He was practically unopposed in last Saturday's Wyoming caucus, and he can use a victory in a delegate-rich state like Michigan.

Michigan's primary is Jan. 15, and South Carolina's Republican primary is Jan. 19.

As its springboard to the nomination, Rudy Giuliani's campaign is hoping for a big victory in Florida on Jan. 29.