The Outlook in Nevada

The Las Vegas Sun endorsed Hillary Clinton in today's Democratic caucuses in Nevada.

But you couldn't tell it from the first sentence of the editorial. That first sentence was: "One word can sum up George W. Bush’s presidency: incompetence."

In fact, Clinton's name wasn't mentioned until the seventh paragraph. Not the seventh sentence. The seventh paragraph.

I'm not suggesting the Sun isn't sincere in its support for Mrs. Clinton. The complaints are valid, but they don't exactly lay out a case for nominating the New York senator.

It's more like a case against Bush -- and he'll be leaving the White House in a year anyway.

The Elko Daily Free Press gave its endorsements to Barack Obama and Mitt Romney.

After discussing Obama's and Romney's positions on mining issues, the Daily Free Press went on to assert: "[T]his will be the make-or-break issue for northeastern Nevada voters in November. Our next president must be committed to preserving the hardrock mining industry in the United States."

The Ely Times didn't endorse a candidate, but it made its opinion of the caucus system crystal clear: "We urge the Democrats and Republicans not to resort to the caucus system in 2012," the Times said in an editorial on Thursday.

"We thought we had progressed and taken candidate selection away from party hacks in their smoke-filled back rooms. But apparently all we got rid of was the smoke."

American Research Group reports that its latest survey shows Clinton holding a narrow lead over Obama in today's Democratic caucuses, 35% to 32%. John Edwards is third with 25%, and 8% are undecided.

The rest of the story is that, since December, Clinton's share has dropped by 10 percentage points while Obama has gone up by 14% and Edwards has gone up by 11%. In that time period, three Democrats (Joe Biden, with 4% in the last survey, Chris Dodd, with 2%, and Bill Richardson, with 2%) have dropped out of the race and the undecided share has dropped by three percentage points.

Also, in Nevada, "non-partisan" voters, who are not affiliated with either party, may participate in whichever caucuses they wish. According to American Research Group, the share of likely participants in the Democratic caucus who are regarded as "non-partisan" is 11%. Among those voters, Edwards is the leader with 42%. Behind him is Obama, with 34%. Clinton is trailing badly with 17%.

But, among Democrats who will participate in their caucuses, Clinton is in front with 37%. Obama is second with 32% and Edwards is third with 23%.

And, according to the poll, nearly 90% of the caucus participants will be Democrats, which is good news for Clinton. After all, if the Democrats are supporting her and nearly nine out of 10 participants in the Democratic caucus will be registered Democrats, she's likely to win.

But the bad news is, if the numbers are correct not just in Nevada but nationally as well, she has a lot of work to do to persaude independents to join her campaign. Assuming she wins the nomination.

It hasn't drawn a lot of attention, but a Republican caucus is scheduled in Nevada today.

Among the Republicans, Romney leads with 28%, says American Research Group. Running second is John McCain with 21%. In third place is Fred Thompson with 13%, and fourth place belongs to Rudy Giuliani with 11%. Mike Huckabee is sixth with 8%, trailing Ron Paul with 9%.

The survey indicates that about 94% of likely Republican caucus participants are, indeed, Republicans.

And the numbers suggest a significant shift in preferences among Republicans since December.

A month ago, Nevada's Republicans favored Romney, as American Research Group says they still do today, with 29%, but the second choice was Huckabee, with 23%. And the third choice was Giuliani, with 17%.

So, the bottom line, as they prepare to hold the caucuses, is that Obama and Edwards have been on the way up while Clinton has been on the way down in Nevada's Democratic caucuses. Obama and Edwards seem to have benefited from the withdrawals of Biden, Dodd and Richardson. And the undecideds have started making up their minds.

On the Republican side, Romney appears to have remained constant, but McCain and Thompson are on their way up, while Giuliani and Huckabee are on their way down.

We'll see what the eventual bottom lines turn out to be.