Who Will Win In Iowa?

Less than two months before the caucuses are held, Iowa, it seems, is in no one's pocket.

A couple of polls, Strategic Vision and CBS/New York Times, completed surveys of Iowa's Republicans and Democrats yesterday.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney was leading in the CBS/New York Times poll with 27%. Mike Huckabeee was second with 21%, and Rudy Giuliani was third with 15%. Fred Thompson and John McCain were in single digits with 9% and 4%, respectively.

In Strategic Vision's poll, Romney is at the top with 30%, holding a wide lead over Huckabee (19%), Giuliani (12%), Thompson (11%), and McCain (7%).

The Strategic Vision poll is also interesting for what it reveals about Republican attitudes about President Bush.

Republicans, we are told, are looking for "the next Ronald Reagan." Apparently, they didn't find the next Reagan in George W. Bush, no matter how many cowboy hats he wears or how many brush thickets he clears out on his ranch.

Strategic Vision asked Republicans in Iowa if Bush was "a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan" and only 7% said yes while 74% said no.

On the Democratic side, both surveys have Hillary Clinton leading for the nomination, but by only 2 percentage points in both polls.

Strategic Vision found Clinton had the support of 29%, with Barack Obama close behind at 27% and John Edwards running third with 20%.

In the CBS/New York Times survey, Clinton led among Iowa's Democrats with 25%, followed by Edwards with 23% and Obama with 22%.

I think there's a relevant, yet touchy, question to be asked in the Democratic race. Polls constantly show that Americans are ready to vote for a woman or a black for president. The 2008 Democratic race will be the acid test for those poll results, the nearer either Clinton or Obama gets to winning the nomination.

For those who have been answering "yes," it's time to put up or shut up.

So, are the people who respond in the affirmative to voting for a woman or a black for president being honest and sincere, or are they being politically correct?

When the chips are down, will Democrats opt for a symbolic nominee -- the first woman nominated for president or the first black nominated for president? And, if they do, will the American public in general follow their lead next November?