Thursday, November 15, 2007

New Polls From Iowa

We've got some new polls from Iowa. Get used to it. With the caucuses due to be held on Jan. 3, 2008, we'll be getting these on a regular basis through the holidays.

The latest results are from American Research Group and KCCI in Des Moines.

We often seem to start our reports on surveys by telling you the Republican results first -- at least, that's what I've been told lately. So, to keep things balanced, let's start with the Democrats.

Hillary Clinton is the leader in both surveys and she has 27% in each. Barack Obama is second in both polls, but he is getting 25% in the KCCI poll and 21% in the American Research Group (ARG) poll. John Edwards is third in both surveys, with 21% in KCCI's poll and 20% in ARG's poll. Bill Richardson is fourth in both polls, by a wide margin. He has 10% in KCCI's survey and 12% in ARG's survey.

Clearly, on the Democratic side, it is a three-way race.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is the leader in both surveys, but, like Clinton, he has a larger lead in one poll than he does in the other. KCCI shows a closer race on the Democratic side; ARG reports a closer race among the Republicans.

Like Clinton, Romney's total is consistent, and it's almost identical to the support level Clinton is holding in her party. Romney has 27% in the KCCI poll and he has 26% in the ARG survey. Mike Huckabee is second in both surveys, but he has 24% in ARG's poll. The KCCI survey gives him 18%.

Rudy Giuliani is third in both surveys, with 16% in KCCI and 11% in ARG. Giuliani shares the third spot with Fred Thompson in ARG. Thompson also has 11% in that one. Thompson has fourth place to himself in the KCCI poll, with 10%.

John McCain is fifth in both surveys. He's running close to Giuliani and Thompson in the ARG poll, with 10%, but he's farther behind in KCCI with 6%.

For the GOP, it's looking like a fight between Romney and Huckabee. For Giuliani, Thompson or McCain to make a difference in Iowa, they need to start making a surge soon.

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