Sunday, February 15, 2009

Ranking the Presidents

Tomorrow is Presidents' Day, so I guess it should come as no surprise that C-SPAN has surveyed a bunch of historians to come up with a ranking of the presidents, from best to worst.

This kind of list is always interesting — and debate-provoking. In 2001, former White House counsel John Dean asserted that such a list "is nothing but high-grade hokum, mixed with a lot of bunkum."

My primary argument would be that C-SPAN's ranking includes every president, and, while it is tempting to pass judgment on George W. Bush, his administration hasn't been over for a full month yet (even though there are certainly those who would argue that Bush simply stopped governing — or attempting to govern — well before his presidency ended on Jan. 20, 2009).

I would establish certain rules that would exclude recent presidents from being ranked — on the grounds that history really hasn't had a chance to fully assess those presidents' contributions.

How much time should be given? Well, I guess history is dynamic in that sense, and interpretations of individual presidents may be subject to change long after their administrations end. Harry Truman and Richard Nixon, for example, were both regarded more favorably about 20 years after they left office than they were when their presidencies ended. C-SPAN's rankings indicate that Truman is still as well regarded as he was in the survey that was taken nearly 10 years ago, while Nixon has slipped a couple of spots.

Anyway, I would say that any presidency that ended in the last 20 years should not be considered. That would remove both of the Bushes and Bill Clinton from consideration, although the elder Bush would be eligible in the first survey that is taken after the next presidential election.

Twenty years is an arbitrary figure, though. Based on my personal observation, it would be wiser to allow 30 years — thus giving history additional time to render its assessment. Using that yardstick, the Reagan and Carter presidencies would not be eligible for ranking this time.

I'm going to stick with the 20-year restriction, though. There are many people who believe that sufficient time has passed to judge the Reagan presidency, which ended on Jan. 20, 1989.

Incidentally, for the record, C-SPAN's Top 10 were:
  1. Abraham Lincoln (1861-1865).

  2. George Washington (1789-1797).

  3. Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933-1945).

  4. Theodore Roosevelt (1901-1909).

  5. Harry S. Truman (1945-1953).

  6. John F. Kennedy (1961-1963).

  7. Thomas Jefferson (1801-1809).

  8. Dwight D. Eisenhower (1953-1961).

  9. Woodrow Wilson (1913-1921).

  10. Ronald Reagan (1981-1989).
Also for the record, the rankings of the last three presidents (who, as I've said, I would not consider because not enough time has passed since the conclusions of their presidencies) were 15th (Bill Clinton), 18th (George H.W. Bush) and 36th (George W. Bush).

It's worth noting, however, that George W. Bush was ranked behind nearly every 20th century president (the exception was Warren G. Harding) — and most of the 19th century presidents who finished behind Bush essentially passed the buck in the years before the Civil War — the exceptions to that were Andrew Johnson (next to last), who succeeded Lincoln after the war was over and became the first president to be impeached by the House and tried by the Senate, and William Henry Harrison (ranked 39th), who caught a cold that became pneumonia and took his life one month after he took office in 1841.

In fact, due to the brevity of his presidency, I don't think it's fair to rank Harrison at all. Even Pope John Paul I had a longer reign. But C-SPAN included James Garfield in the rankings, and his presidency wasn't much longer. He was shot four months after taking office and died two months after that — but at least he lived long enough to do something while he was president.

I don't suppose that I have any serious arguments with C-SPAN's Top 10, other than my reservations about including Reagan in such a list. Most of the presidents on the list had to face at least one national crisis — and did so quite well.

C-SPAN rates James Buchanan as the worst American president, which leads me to a technical point. There are 42 names on the list, but there were actually 43 presidents prior to Barack Obama. Grover Cleveland served as president twice, but his terms were not consecutive. I tend to think that his presidencies should be judged separately since they governed over two different time periods. But C-SPAN's list treats him as one president, and he falls right in the middle, at #21 (between James Madison and Gerald Ford).

I can't argue with Buchanan's placement, though. When Southern states began to secede in the waning days of his administration, Buchanan contended that secession was illegal. But he also took the position that going to war to prevent it was illegal — so he did nothing.

While it's far from certain, if Buchanan had taken some sort of action to stop the Southern states from seceding, history might have been changed — and the country might have been spared the anguish of the Civil War. So, based on that particular "what-if" from history, I would rank Buchanan as the worst president in American history.

It's interesting to look at C-SPAN's rankings and see what has changed since the 2000 survey. Most of the rankings haven't changed much. In most cases, a president moved up or fell back a spot or two, if that. But there are a few noteworthy changes.

Clinton, for example, is regarded more favorably than he was just before he left office. In 2000, he was ranked 21st. In 2009, as I mentioned earlier, his ranking is 15th.

And, inexplicably, Ulysses S. Grant jumped 10 spots in the rankings, from 33rd to 23rd. Why? I don't know. Perhaps it is because his presidency took a hard line against domestic violence, particularly the sort practiced by groups like the Ku Klux Klan, and was supportive of civil rights.

But his presidency was still plagued with corruption, and most historians would probably say that he was a better general than he was a president.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks ever so for this post David! I am in love with presidential history; do not ask me why...je'ne sai pas, mon cherie (because I do not know my dear). That is one love affair that even I cannot explain!

Anyway...the list is a fairly good one, and I definitely agree with you about Reagan's placement. I got overly excited when I saw Harry Truman ranked at number five, who was just absitively awesome! J'adore him, and it always seemed to me that he never got all the credit he deserved. I figured maybe he wasn't so highly regarded because of Hiroshima. But anyway, I love him, and my history teacher explained to me that while Truman may have been unpopular during the final term of his presidency, historians look back and say that he was really smart after all. I also read somewhere that Truman had the highest approval and disapproval ratings of all the presidents.

I was just wondering where LBJ was ranked, since he is another favorite of mine, but was also very unpopular as well.

And thanks for the info about Grant; I had no idea he was a supporter of Civil Rights. You may have guessed that's why I love Truman and LBJ as well.

Oh, and terribly sorry for the extra long comment. I just love discussing presidents.

David Goodloe said...

So do I, Graciebird!

In fact, I guess I was something of a child prodigy. I memorized all the presidents in order when I was in first grade!

To answer your question about LBJ, the ranking has him 11th -- right behind Reagan. And you're right, he WAS unpopular -- mostly because of the Vietnam War, although he had his detractors in the South because of civil rights. The link to C-SPAN's rankings can be found in the first paragraph of this post.

And your history teacher is right about Truman. When I was a teenager, I saw a film of James Whitmore's one-man play about Truman (it's the only time that the star of a play that was turned into a film was nominated for Best Actor at the Academy Awards -- I wrote about it on my Birth of a Notion blog when Whitmore died recently.). It's true that he is more highly regarded now than he was when he was president.

But it is not correct that Truman had the highest approval and disapproval ratings of all the presidents. I believe George W. Bush exceeded him in both categories by a few points! Roper has a lot of information on presidential approval ratings.

Anonymous said...

11th seems to be a good number!
I would still rank dear old Lyndon ahead of Reagan, and to quote LBJ: "Even at it's worst, the Democratic Party is better than the Republican Party at it's best."
(Or something to that effect; I'm not so sure if I agree with Mr. Johnson however. And I don't know if I love him completely. He and Bobby Kennedy did not get along too well, and I happen to be in love with the latter).

And I had to memorize the presidents for my AP class, but now I just do it for fun. (Quel dork)!

David Goodloe said...

Graciebird, I'm also an admirer of Bobby Kennedy.

I was 8 years old when he was killed. I wrote about my memories of that time on this blog when the 40th anniversary of his assassination was coming up.

It's true that Bobby and LBJ weren't friendly. Maybe that was because Bobby had been against having LBJ on his brother's ticket in 1960. But the choice proved to be a wise one. JFK needed Johnson's help to carry Texas and several Southern states.

Even so, it seemed to me at the time that Johnson was genuinely saddened when Bobby Kennedy was killed.

Anonymous said...

I believe he was geuinely saddened as well. Also, why do people credit most of the Civil Rights legislation passed during LBJ's adinistration to JFK? I mean, LBJ seemed genuinely passionate about civil rights. I have this speech he made about affirmative action to Howard U, and you just can't make up something like that.

David Goodloe said...

Well, Graciebird, I don't know if there is a simple answer to that question.

Mostly, I guess it's because of the perception that the Kennedys were martyrs. I think that idea has merit. But if the idea is that they were martyrs to the cause of civil rights, I think that shows a lack of understanding of the facts -- and perhaps an inclination to assume that their political philosophies were the same as their younger brother, Ted's.

Bobby and President Kennedy were more centrist than Ted in many ways. And they, like President Lincoln, were preoccupied with other objectives when they rose to power. The course of events moved them in the direction of civil rights, but, originally, Bobby was more interested in fighting organized crime and President Kennedy was more interested in Cuba, Russia and the Cold War when he took office. I wrote about this on this blog the other day.

LBJ, on the other hand, grew up in poverty. His commitment to the cause was a result of his upbringing. But he said, at the time, that he thought the Democrats' support for civil rights would "give the South to the Republicans for a generation or more." And history has proven him correct. With the exception of Jimmy Carter's near sweep of the South in 1976, Republicans have won most, if not all, of the Southern states in the last 11 elections -- even when Southerners like Bill Clinton and Al Gore were on the Democrats' tickets.

Mike said...

LBJ seems to get a more favorable rating as time goes by,while Kennedy, on the other hand, seems to be coming back to the pack. I think that Kennedy's asassination made him more of an icon than his presidential record did. Just like Marilyn Monroes death seems to have cemented her forever as a sex goddess, or Elvis's death made him almost God like. Remember, when Elvis died, he was not really even in the public eye, and he was having financial trouble. The point is that people have a vision of camelot when they think of the Kennedys, but it might have been different if he had lived. By the way,Gracie, I am so impressed by your interest in history and classic movies, it gives me hope for the younger generation! LOL

David Goodloe said...

Otin,

There's probably something in what you say. There's probably a tendency to romanticize the memories of people who die young or die violently -- or both.

But there has to be a certain level of achievement before that can happen. Elvis sold millions of records, Marilyn brought in millions of dollars for the movies she was in.

And I would question your conclusion that LBJ is gaining ground as time goes by while Kennedy is dropping. The C-SPAN survey shows the opposite. LBJ dropped from 10th to 11th, and Kennedy went up from 8th to 6th from the 2000 survey to the current one. It wasn't much movement, but it was still movement.

Mike said...

Different surveys will give you different results. My father had a book that examined the Kennedy LBJ years and it basically said that LBJ's legacy was tainted by Vietnam, but Kennedy would have probably would have gotten sucked into it also. What did Kennedy really accomplish? The Cuban missile crisis wouldn't have occured(probably) if the Russians didn't think that they could exploit his inexperience. LBJ gets caught up in the rap that he just continued Kennedy's civil rights ideas, but from what I have read, Johnson was passionate about the subject. Didn't LBJ start the social security program? Well, I wasn't there, so its hard for me to have a real good grasp on things.

Mike said...

excuse my typos lol

David Goodloe said...

Otin,

I agree with you that LBJ was passionate about the issue of civil rights.

Even in the years right after his death, I remember people asking questions about what might have happened if he hadn't been assassinated.

That's really what history is all about. It's a series of "what-if" questions.

Would Hitler have risen to power if the Treaty of Versailles right after World War I hadn't punished Germany as severely as it did?

If James Buchanan had been more assertive when the Southern states started to secede, would we have been spared the Civil War?

If Bobby Kennedy hadn't been killed, would Richard Nixon have been elected? Would Watergate ever have happened?

We're constantly coming to a fork in the road. One of the things historians like to do is speculate about how different things might have been if we'd gone in another direction.

And, just to clarify, Franklin D. Roosevelt signed Social Security into law. It was part of the New Deal. But LBJ was a great admirer of Roosevelt and he wanted to expand on Roosevelt's domestic policies. What you may be thinking of is the Medicare amendment to the Social Security program that LBJ signed into law about 30 years later.

Anonymous said...

Otin, thank you very much! I'm glad I am able to inspire hope, since much of the younger generation do not care about history or classic movies. Mostly its because history and GOOD old movies are way out of their grasp. I think I'm the only person who knows every single president in my history class.

And I too have wondered about the what-ifs; Kennedy would have been involved in Vietnam, but seeing as how Bobby was so opposed to war, I don't think he would have escalated the war as LBJ did.

My friend and I discussed what would have happened if RFK had been elected. He might have been elected for two terms; if Nixon had been elected, maybe there would have been a Watergate, and he would have only served one term. Then Ford, then Carter, and instead of Reagan, it would be Clinton. We said that if Bobby had become president, Reagan never would have! But then again, it would have been an era of democrats, and I don't think we would have allowed Democrats to remain in power for over thirty years.

David Goodloe said...

Graciebird,

I'm inclined to agree with your assertion that Kennedy wouldn't have escalated U.S. involvement in Vietnam the way Johnson did. But it's somewhat erroneous to suggest that Bobby's opposition would have been a factor -- at least in the early years. Bobby's opposition to Vietnam, like his support for civil rights, evolved as his experiences evolved.

And your timeline tends to create new questions as it develops. For example, on what basis do you suggest that Clinton would have been elected instead of Reagan? Reagan was elected in 1980. Clinton turned 34 that year -- not old enough to run for president (and no one who was not at least in his 40s has ever been elected president).

Also, if Bobby Kennedy had lived and been elected in 1968 (and, presumably, re-elected in 1972), Gerald Ford would never have become vice president (or president). And, by 1976, the public might well have grown tired of Democrats in the White House -- which means Jimmy Carter might not have been elected president that year.

Alternate histories (both books and movies) attempt to answer these kinds of questions. You seem to have an inquiring mind. Maybe you should think about writing an alternate history about the latter part of the 20th century!

Mike said...

Medicare is probably what I was talking about, I knew he was responsible for a major social program. I am not a real historian, I know enough to bring out a few points here and there, so I have a question about JFK. What were his accomplishments as president? I am asking because I really don't know and I figure that you might.

David Goodloe said...

Otin,

Thanks for your confidence.

I guess a president's accomplishments are similar to what they say about beauty -- it's in the eye of the beholder. Certainly, it has always seemed that way to me when the subject is President Kennedy.

Most admirers of Kennedy would probably say that his greatest achievement was avoiding a nuclear war with Russia during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

But he had a big setback early in his presidency when he went along with plans to invade Cuba at the Bay of Pigs. Those plans were begun in the Eisenhower administration and Kennedy, being young and inexperienced, allowed them to proceed.

Kennedy didn't live to see his challenge to send men to the moon realized, but he was behind the acceleration of the space race. That may be part of his greatest achievement -- his ability to inspire Americans to pursue difficult, long-term goals.

I always thought that was illustrated well in a scene in Oliver Stone's movie about Nixon. In the movie, Nixon comes to the kitchen in the White House for a midnight snack and finds his Spanish valet there. They begin talking about Cuba. Nixon says to his valet, "We really let you down, didn't we?" His valet says, "That was Mr. Kennedy, sir. He was a politician." Nixon says, "Did you cry when he died?" The valet says, "Yes." Nixon says, "Why?" His valet says, "He made me see the stars."

It could be argued that one of Kennedy's goals, racial equality, hasn't been fully realized yet, but Kennedy's Justice Department supported school integration and civil rights efforts. Some conspiracy theorists say that is why his assassination was planned for a city in the South -- to make it appear that he was killed in retaliation for civil rights.

He was president for less than three years so his record is not as extensive as other presidents. His critics will say that he didn't have many legislative victories, which is true.

I hope this answers your question.

Mike said...

Thank you, it does!