Drawing the Party Lines

The U.S. Senate approved the compromise version of the economic stimulus package. Now the House and Senate have to hammer out their differences and approve the same bill before it goes on to Barack Obama's desk.

Obama has said he expects to see it on his desk by Monday.

But Scott Wheeler, executive director of The National Republican Trust PAC, is playing rough. He's threatening to actively support any Republican who runs against a Republican senator who votes for the final version of the package. Three Republicans — Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins from Maine and Arlen Specter from Pennsylvania — supported the compromise bill, but all three have said they might not support the final version.

Specter might be vulnerable to Wheeler's brand of browbeating. He struggled to win re-election in 2004, and he will face the voters again in 2010. But Specter may feel somewhat torn — he was, after all, a guest at the White House on Super Bowl Sunday, where he was treated to Obama's hospitality and, presumably, his political charm.

Obama did win Pennsylvania, but his share of the vote there — less than 55% — lagged behind others outside the South.

Like Maine, for example.

In Maine, Obama got nearly 58% — a share of the vote that pales compared to Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Connecticut, where Obama received 60% plus, but you have to keep in mind that two Republicans represent Maine in the Senate — the only state northeast of Kentucky and north of South Carolina in which that is so.

Snowe should not feel much political pressure. She was re-elected with nearly 74% in the Democratic year of 2006. Her seat won't come up again until 2012.

Collins also should feel comfortable but for different reasons. She was just re-elected in 2008 so she won't face the voters again until 2014. but her share of the vote was much lower than Snowe's had been two years earlier. Collins received slightly more than 61% of the vote, but she outpolled Obama in Maine, anyway, in spite of the fact that it was not a good year for Republicans.

If the Democrats only lose Specter's vote the next time, they should still have enough votes to succeed. But if they lose Specter and either of the Maine senators, they have a problem.

That should be the strategy — keeping Snowe and Collins happy. How do you accomplish that? That is where the leadership talents of the president and the legislative talents of the majority leader come into play.

This is the kind of test that tends to determine whether a president really is destined for greatness — or mediocrity.