Trent Lott Leaving the Senate

Mississippi Sen. Trent Lott announced today that he will retire by the end of the year.

The announcement caught many people, including yours truly, by surprise. It's not that I think Lott's departure will affect the balance of power in the Senate -- I fully expect the seat to continue to be held by a Republican.

Recently re-elected Republican Gov. Haley Barbour will appoint an interim replacement for Lott. He says he will make that appointment within 10 days of Lott's resignation. A special election will be held next year to determine who will serve out the remainder of Lott's term.

Lott was re-elected last year, so his seat isn't due to go before the voters for a full six-year term again until 2012. Whoever wins next year's special election will be elected to a four-year term.

Speculation in Mississippi is that third district Rep. Chip Pickering, 44, who served as an aide to Lott from 1990 to 1994, is Lott's most likely replacement. Pickering announced earlier this year that he would not seek re-election to the House in 2008, in part because he wanted to be able to spend more time with his family.

But Pickering has been regarded for a long time as Lott's heir apparent, and this opening will probably draw him into the special election race, whether Barbour appoints him as the interim replacement or not.

The third district slithers along the southern portion of Mississippi, touching the western boundary that runs along the Mississippi River and the eastern boundary that borders on Alabama. The voters there have given Pickering around 80% of the vote in the last two congressional elections. The district's population is more heavily white than the rest of the state (more than 63% in the district, compared to a little over 60% statewide), and it is the site of the infamous Neshoba County Fair, which has been mentioned in recent posts on this blog.

Based on the National Journal's ratings, Pickering isn't exactly a Trent Lott clone. But his record is sufficiently conservative to satisfy Lott's supporters. The National Journal rated Lott more conservative on foreign and social issues than on economic issues in 2006 -- although he was rated more conservative on economic issues in 2005.

Pickering's ratings are more moderate on economic issues and more conservative on foreign and social issues.