The Latest From Iowa

Polls can be conflicting -- and flat-out wrong -- so it's best not to put too much stock into them. At least until you see actual voting results that confirm what the polls have been telling you.

For example, take a recent poll from the University of Iowa that showed Mitt Romney soaring to a huge lead in that state with 36%. In that poll, his nearest rivals for the Republican nomination, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani, were more than 20 points behind, at 13% apiece. Fred Thompson was next with 11% and John McCain had 6%.

What made that poll unique among other polls taken in Iowa was Romney's total. Most polls in Iowa have shown Huckabee, Giuliani and Thompson in the teens, but most of those polls have shown Romney in the 20% range, not in the 30% range. A 23-point lead simply had not been established in any of the previous polls.

Last week, a poll from the American Research Group showed Romney's total back in the 20% range -- at 27%. Huckabee was second with 19%, Giuliani was third with 16%, McCain was next with 14% and Thompson rounded out the field with 8%.

These figures are more in line with what we've been seeing from Iowa's Republicans.

On the Democratic side, Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead in Iowa appears to be growing. She has 32% in the latest ARG poll, followed by Barack Obama with 22% and John Edwards with 15%. Polls have been indicating that Edwards has been declining in Iowa at the same time that Clinton has been gaining in support. Obama's support level has varied from poll to poll, but he has generally been running second to Clinton in Iowa.

Pundits are virtually unanimous in their assertion that Democratic challengers need to establish an alternative to Clinton in the Iowa caucus or the New Hampshire primary to have a chance of denying her the Democratic nomination.

Iowa and New Hampshire are always important in the races for presidential nominations because they come so early in the political calendar. As momentum builders, they are even more important this time, with nearly half of all states holding primaries a few weeks later.

If a candidate on either side can win Iowa, New Hampshire or both, he or she will be the established front runner heading into Super Tuesday, when larger states with more delegates at stake will go to the polls.

Both Iowa and New Hampshire have reputations as mavericks. Sometimes they can make a previously unheralded candidate into a contender, sometimes they can de-rail a front-runner.

In 1976, former Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter seemed to come from nowhere to "win" the Iowa caucus. Carter actually finished second to an uncommitted slate of delegates but nevertheless finished with more support than any other actual candidate, then went on to win the Democratic nomination and the presidency.

In 1980, George H.W. Bush defeated Ronald Reagan in the Iowa Republican caucus, but Reagan regrouped, won the New Hampshire primary and ultimately won the nomination and the presidency.

In 1988, Republican poll leaders Bob Dole and Bush were stunned when Pat Robertson finished a strong second with 25% in the Iowa caucus. Dole actually finished first in the caucus with 37%, and Bush came in third with 19%, but most people remember Robertson's finish and not the others. Bush wound up winning the nomination and the election.

In 1992, the Iowa caucus was rendered virtually irrelevant to the process. On the Democratic side, Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin practically had the field to himself, and President Bush was unopposed in his bid for the Republican nomination.

The last three nominees from both parties have finished first in the Iowa caucuses.

New Hampshire can be just as fickle. For more than 50 years, New Hampshire has been the initial proving ground for candidates who wished to be their party's standard-bearer, going back to 1952 when General Dwight Eisenhower demonstrated his vote-getting ability by defeating Robert Taft there.

And, according to a state law passed in 1977, the New Hampshire primary must be the first in the nation. Thus, it has been continually moved up in the calendar to retain its first-in-the-nation status. Originally held in March, New Hampshire primary voters went to the polls in February in the 1990s and in January in 2004. The date for the 2008 primary has not been set.

In 1968, Eugene McCarthy finished second behind Lyndon Johnson, but his strong showing eventually forced Johnson to drop his bid for another term in the White House. Four years later, Ed Muskie came into New Hampshire as the Democratic front-runner to challenge Richard Nixon, but the infamous "crying in the snow" incident worked against Muskie and helped propel George McGovern to the front of the pack.

In 1992, Bill Clinton did not win New Hampshire, but he finished a strong second after trailing by a wide margin in earlier polls and proclaimed himself the "Comeback Kid." Clinton, of course, went on to win the nomination and the election.

And, in 1996, Pat Buchanan scored an upset victory over Dole in New Hampshire. Dole rebounded and went on to win the Republican nomination, but he lost the general election to President Clinton.

The point is, in both states -- and in both parties -- it ain't over 'til it's over.