Wednesday, November 21, 2007

What's New in New Hampshire

New Hampshire's secretary of state made it official today. The first-in-the-nation primary will be held on Tuesday, Jan. 8, which means the first primary is about seven weeks away.

New Hampshire had originally scheduled its primary later in January, but the change was made necessary by primary scheduling shifts in South Carolina, Michigan and Florida.

Iowa will hold its caucus on Thursday, Jan. 3, and Wyoming will hold its caucus two days later. Then, New Hampshire will hold the first primary in the nation on Jan. 8.

The announcement of the scheduling of the New Hampshire primary comes at a time when Hillary Clinton's lead there appears to be dropping, according to the latest CNN/WMUR poll.

In September, Clinton led Barack Obama in New Hampshire by 23 points, according to the poll results. In the latest survey, which wrapped up on Sunday, Clinton had 36% and Obama had 22%. John Edwards had 12% in September and he had 13% in the most recent survey.

As we've noted before, New Hampshire has a reputation for doing the unexpected. In 1968, Eugene McCarthy's surprisingly strong showing there forced President Johnson to drop out of the race. Four years later, the famous "crying in the snow" incident reduced front-runner Ed Muskie's vote total and opened the door for George McGovern to become the nominee.

In 1984, Gary Hart's victory in New Hampshire propelled him into the race for the Democratic nomination, a race that was eventually won by former Vice President Walter Mondale.

On the Republican side, President Gerald Ford won a narrow victory over former Gov. Ronald Reagan in 1976, a preview of what would happen at the Republican convention that summer. In 1996, Pat Buchanan stunned Bob Dole by winning the New Hampshire primary and, four years later, John McCain upset George W. Bush there.

With both nominations apparently up for grabs, watch for some political fireworks in New Hampshire in the next seven weeks.

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