The Governor's Race in Texas

Today is Election Day in Dallas and North Texas. As I write this, voters in these parts are still going to the polls to cast their votes in local races and on various ballot initiatives. Some places — such as Arlington and Fort Worth — will be choosing mayors today. Dallas voters won't be choosing a mayor, although several city council positions will be decided.

Typically, local elections around here don't draw large turnouts. But my guess is that next spring's Republican gubernatorial primary will attract a high turnout, assuming that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison decides to run for governor. And most folks seem to expect that she will.

Earlier polls showed Hutchison holding a commanding lead over incumbent Gov. Rick Perry. I don't know if his highly publicized remarks had any effect on polls of Texas Republicans, but Rasmussen's latest survey suggests that Perry may have benefited from what I saw as a blatant appeal to his conservative base on that occasion.

Rasmussen says Perry is preferred by 42% of Republicans and Hutchison is the choice of 38%. I don't know what the margin of error is, but, clearly, neither candidate has 50% at this point, and a majority is needed to avoid a runoff. Seven percent of Republicans indicated they would prefer someone else, and 13% were undecided.

Obviously, it is early in the electoral process — too early to be saying, as Rasmussen does, that the candidates are "essentially tied," although it is probably hard to avoid reaching that conclusion based on the numbers from the latest poll.

The primary will be held in about 10 months — plenty of time for things to change. Stay tuned.