Economic Forecasts

In what may be greeted in many quarters as good news, the National Association for Business Economics Outlook reports that indicators suggest the end of the recession may be in sight, according to Julianne Pepitone at CNNMoney.com.

The news will continue to be mixed, the NABE says. The panel anticipates a rebound in economic growth in the second half of 2009, but it still expects to see a decline in economic activity for the second quarter. As far as the short term is concerned, that really isn't much of a surprise. We've been seeing a decline in gross domestic product for months now, but recent months have suggested that the decline is leveling off.

But any gains that may come in the remaining seven months of this year are not likely to offset the losses we've seen. That, by the way, is my own interpretation, not the NABE's — and it's based primarily on the 6% drop in GDP that we witnessed in January.

Employment will lag behind, as it typically does during a recovery, and will show signs of turning up by the early months of next year, says NABE president Chris Varvares. The panelists predict that, nationally, unemployment will level off before it gets into double digits, with the rate dropping to 9.3% by the end of 2010, which is higher than the current rate of 8.9%. Presumably, it will take longer in some states than others.

And, as Pepitone writes in her summary of the NABE report, "Almost three out of four survey respondents expect the recession will end by the third quarter of 2009."

Since we're a little more than a month away from the start of the third quarter, that's good news, isn't it? Well, it seems to be — until you take into account what the rest of the respondents say. Granted, they are in the minority. But the majority opinion is not always right.

Are the remaining economists hedging their bets? That's hard to say. But Pepitone points out that 19% of the economists who were surveyed by the NABE say recovery won't begin until the fourth quarter and 7% believe it will begin in 2010. So, clearly, there are skeptics.

Personally, I'm doing what I can, which isn't much in the grand scheme of things. I'm trying to remain patient. But I'm not a trained economist. I've tried to understand the concepts that have been discussed, but it all comes back to my personal situation.

I didn't create the conditions that led to this recession. I didn't profit from the culture of greed that so many people say brought the economy to its knees.

I can only hope that things get better soon. For me, things will be better when I have a job.

Until then, it's mostly white noise to me.