A Barrel of Ice Water

Optimism is a good thing. These days, it's important to stay positive, with unemployment rising and businesses going under.

But the bad news is relentless and it won't go away if you simply ignore it.

So it's also a good idea to remain realistic. And Bob Herbert has a big dose of reality for you to swallow in the New York Times.

Yesterday, I observed — as many did — that it was a hopeful sign that the job losses in April were not as bad as had been expected.

Herbert has an answer for that.

"It's a measure of just how terrible the economy has become that a loss of more than a half–million jobs in just one month can be widely seen as a good sign," he writes. "The house is still burning down, but not quite as fast."

Herbert went on to say, "I can understand why people are relieved that we no longer seem to be hurtling toward a depression, but beyond that I see very little to be happy about."

Is that realistic enough for you?

We've been hearing a lot about the stock market rally. A commentary at CNN.com wonders if it is for real.

In a chilling observation for those who thought a college degree — or an advanced degree — was a ticket to a lifetime of security, Herbert reminds us, "The employment picture for even the most well–educated Americans — men and women with four–year college degrees or higher — is the worst on record."

Herbert isn't the only one who sees no signs that things are really getting better. NPR wonders if we're really seeing signs of an economic turnaround.

To his credit, Barack Obama warned Americans yesterday, as he seems to do after every monthly jobs report, that more job losses lie in the future. He may need to make that a weekly mantra.

As David Sanger observes in an analysis for the New York Times, "The formula for restoring national confidence — part good policy, part good politics, part good luck — can be hard to find." That's the unenviable challenge facing the administration.

This economic downturn is unlike anything most Americans have experienced before. For most Americans, a recession has been something to be endured for a few months, perhaps a year, and then things start to turn around. This is different, and lots of folks don't seem to have gotten that message yet.

Obama needs to impress upon people that this isn't your father's recession. Not everyone has figured that out yet. The sooner they understand it, the better. For everyone.

When I lost my job, right around the time of the economic meltdown, I called my doctor. I wasn't scheduled for my semiannual checkup for a couple of months, but I wanted to see if we could move it up so I could have it before the end of the month, when my health coverage would no longer be paid by my former employer.

The nurse I spoke to told me there was no point in moving the appointment up and then said, "Well, you'll get another job in a week or two, don't you think?"

I told her that I hoped so — but something told me this was going to be a long ordeal. Then the meltdown occurred, and here I am, more than eight months later, still looking. Last week, I had my second semiannual checkup since having that conversation. I didn't see that nurse in the office last week — maybe she lost her job, maybe she was taking that day off. But I assume she figured out, after our conversation, that this was different.

If she still hasn't figured that out, I would invite her to join me the next time I attend a job fair. We'll need to get there early. Crowds start to gather long before the doors open. And she'll see a lot of well–educated people hoping to land jobs that pay a lot less than they were making at their previous jobs.

Attitudes do seem to be changing, but there are still people who view things from the pre–meltdown perspective. In their experience, when people lose their jobs, they'll find something else soon. It just doesn't work that way these days.

Sometimes I wonder if it ever will again.