The Virginia Governor's Race

Every four years — in odd–numbered years — the voters of Virginia select a new governor. Virginia holds its gubernatorial election the year after a presidential election, so 2009 is an election year in that state.

State law prohibits the incumbent from seeking re–election so Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine cannot seek another four–year term this year. Kaine, however, won't have to look for a job when he leaves office in January; he was chosen to be the new Democratic National Committee chairman earlier this year, a job to which he can devote his full attention starting in 2010.

In recent times, the Virginia governor's race has served as something of a political bellwether in reverse. By that, I mean that, whichever party has won the presidency, the other party has won the governor's office in Virginia the following year. In 2000 and 2004, of course, Republican George W. Bush was elected president; Democrats were elected governor in 2001 and 2005. In 1992 and 1996, Democrat Bill Clinton won the presidency; Republicans were elected governor in 1993 and 1997.

Likewise, during the 1980s, following the elections of Republican presidents — Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984 and George H.W. Bush in 1988 — Democrats were elected governor in 1981, 1985 and 1989. In fact, the Democrat who was elected in 1989, Douglas Wilder, was the first black elected governor in the United States.

And, in 1977, the year after Jimmy Carter was elected president, a Republican was elected governor.

That is when the current streak began.

In the elections following Republican Richard Nixon's victories in 1968 and 1972, Republicans were elected governor. Prior to that, Democrats were elected governor in the years following the elections of Democratic presidents in 1960 and 1964.

In fact, the Republican who was elected governor the year after Nixon's triumph in 1968, A. Linwood Holton Jr., was the first Republican elected governor in Virginia since Reconstruction. When busing was an issue in Holton's first year in office, he enrolled his children in the mostly black public schools in Richmond. Later, in 1978, Holton unsuccessfully sought the GOP nomination for the U.S. Senate — the eventual nominee, John Warner, won the election and served five terms before retiring last year.

Holton, by the way, is still alive, in spite of undergoing surgery for bladder cancer in 2005. He's 85 years old, and he actively campaigned for Barack Obama last year.

Anyway, considering that the last eight governors of Virginia came from the party that did not win the White House the year before, logic would suggest that it is the Republicans' turn to win.

And recent polls seem to bear that out. The state's former attorney general, Bob McDonnell, has been leading his most likely Democratic opponent, former Democratic National Committee chairman and former chairman of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign Terry McAuliffe.

Democratic polls indicate that McAuliffe is the favorite over his two rivals, Brian Moran (the younger brother of Rep. Jim Moran) and state Sen. Creigh Deeds. But, as Kyle Trygstad writes for RealClearPolitics, none of the Democrats has been eager to play up national connections in this campaign.

I find that particularly interesting, given Virginia's history. When I was in school, Virginia was known as the "Mother of Presidents" because eight presidents (George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, James Monroe, William Henry Harrison, John Tyler, Zachary Taylor and Woodrow Wilson) were born there, although three of those presidents did not live in Virginia during at least part of their adult years.

Three of those presidents served as governor of Virginia before moving to the White House. And, although it has been more than 180 years since a future president was elected governor of the state, Virginians have, from time to time, been mentioned as possible nominees for president or vice president.

Wilder briefly sought the presidential nomination in 1992. Kaine and another former governor, current Sen. Mark Warner, both were mentioned as possible running mates for Obama.

The most recent example of a Virginian who was, at one time, regarded a major contender was a man who has never campaigned officially in a presidential primary or caucus — at least, not yet — although he did make several trips to Iowa and New Hampshire in what were perceived to be warmups for the presidential contests in those states.

That man was Republican George Allen, who was elected governor in 1993. After leaving office in 1998, Allen went on to be elected to the Senate in 2000, defeating another ex–governor, Chuck Robb, the son–in–law of Lyndon Johnson who was seeking his third term.

Many people thought re–election would be merely a formality for Allen in 2006, and there was already plenty of talk about his chances of winning the 2008 Republican nomination.

But a funny thing happened along the way. In August 2006, during a campaign stop near the Virginia–Kentucky border, Allen spotted an Indian–American in the crowd who was recording Allen with his camcorder for Democratic candidate Jim Webb. Allen referred to the man as "macaca," which is a derogatory term for dark–skinned people that is common among French colonists in North Africa.

Allen's mother was raised in the French colonial community in Morocco, and many people speculated that Allen heard her use that word when he was growing up.

Anyway, the situation snowballed. Later in August, the Jewish periodical The Forward reported that Allen's mother probably was Jewish, an assertion that Allen vigorously denied, then recanted. Then, in September, three of Allen's former college football teammates claimed they heard him use the word "nigger" on several occasions.

Other former teammates stepped forward to say they had never heard Allen use that word, but, by that time, his verifiable past had come back to haunt him. Allen was shown to have had a long interest in the Confederate flag, reportedly wearing a Confederate flag lapel pin for his high school senior class photo and displaying the flag, in one form or another, from 1967 to 2000. He also used the Confederate flag in his first statewide TV commercial when running for governor in 1993.

While he was governor, Allen declared April "Confederate History and Heritage Month" in Virginia. And he opposed the establishment of Martin Luther King Day in the state.

In the end, Webb won a narrow victory over Allen, and any hopes he may have had for securing the GOP presidential nomination in 2008 disappeared. In February 2008, Tim Craig wrote a speculative piece in the Washington Post in which he wondered what might have happened if Allen had never said the word "macaca."

On seemingly inconsequential things elections can turn.

In 1967, George Romney (Mitt Romney's father) was widely considered a leading prospect for the presidency. Then, in an interview about his 1965 trip to Vietnam, he described his earlier views about the war as being the result of "brainwashing," which derailed his campaign and opened the door for former Vice President Richard Nixon.

In 1972, Democratic front–runner Ed Muskie gave an emotional response to an attack on his wife that was published in the Manchester Union–Leader in New Hampshire. Muskie responded outdoors, in the snow, and some people said he was moved to tears, although film of the episode was inconclusive. Snowflakes on his face may have been mistaken for tears.

Muskie's campaign collapsed, opening the door for insurgent George McGovern, although it is also possible that the famed "Canuck letter," which alleged that Muskie slurred the French–Canadians (a fairly substantial voting bloc in New Hampshire) but was actually one of the Nixon campaign's "dirty tricks," may have played a role.

Here in Texas, Ann Richards won a close race for governor in 1990. Earlier in the campaign, she was widely expected to lose to Republican businessman Clayton Williams, even though Williams made a number of unsavory remarks during the campaign, most notably comparing bad weather to rape. "If it's inevitable," he said, "just relax and enjoy it."

What was believed to turn the tide in Richards' favor, however, was a moment that was captured on film a few weeks before the election. In a public debate, Richards offered her hand to Williams, but he refused to shake it. His response was seen as uncouth, and Richards claimed a narrow victory.

Obama won Virginia by more than 6% of the vote, becoming the first Democrat in four decades to carry the state in a presidential election. Although his margin in the Electoral College would not have been significantly altered if he had not carried Virginia, one can only wonder, in hindsight, what effect Allen's presence on the Republican ticket might have had if a dark–skinned man with a camcorder had not been in one of his audiences in August 2006.