Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Looking Ahead to the Fall Campaign ...

The polls are now open here in Texas, along with Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. If you live in those states (and if you haven't voted early), you have all day to go to your polling place and cast your ballot.

Neither the Democratic nor the Republican presidential nomination has been locked up, although John McCain is pretty close to wrapping up the GOP nod.

But Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are close mathematically -- even if his 11 consecutive victories make Obama look like he has a huge lead. And neither candidate will mathematically secure the nomination tonight.

Even so, Der Spiegel seems to be assuming that Obama will be the Democratic nominee. (While that may ultimately prove to be correct, it is not a sure thing right now.)

So Der Spiegel is getting the jump on other media outlets, speculating on how the Republicans will wage their campaign against Obama this fall.

"[O]nce the votes have been counted after the Texas and Ohio primaries," write Gregor Peter Schmitz and Gabor Steingart, "it will be highly likely that the left and the right will switch gears from simply observing the enemy to open warfare. ... This means one thing for Republicans: It's open season on Barack Obama."

And Der Spiegel implies that the recent skirmish between the Obama and McCain camps over al-Qaeda in Iraq is merely the opening salvos. More hostilities to come, Der Spiegel says.

Der Spiegel makes some interesting and insightful observations about how political campaigns have been waged in recent years and how a campaign between Obama and McCain is likely to be carried out. I encourage you to read what they have to say.

But keep in mind one thing.

Nobody's been nominated yet.

We still have some votes to count.

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