Given the unusual nature of the 2008 campaign, it's a double guessing game this year. With incumbent tickets seeking re-election in five of the previous seven elections (the exceptions were 2000 and 1988), only one of the running mate spots was unknown until the conventions were held. Since John McCain and his opponent (at this stage, we must presume that will be Barack Obama) are not incumbents, their selections remain the subjects of speculation.
So you can expect more and more speculation in the months to come once it is acknowledged by just about everyone that the horse races for the nominations are over.
The American Prospect asked for feedback from a panel of journalists and political experts on the subject of the Democrats' running mate. So, if you read the article, keep in mind that this panel was considering running mates for both Obama and Hillary Clinton. But also keep in mind that not every prospect is appropriate for both potential nominees.
The prospects who were mentioned the most?
- Jim Webb, senator from Virginia
- Joe Biden, senator from Delaware
Webb and Biden have their pluses and minuses, of course, as do the others on the list. But, as always, they were mentioned for what they could bring to the Democratic ticket.
Sometimes, that means the ability to swing a state to the nominee. Webb, for example, might be chosen because (in theory) he could draw enough votes from Virginians (who might otherwise support McCain) to put that state in the Democratic column for the first time since 1964. Or at least make it more competitive than it has been since Bill Clinton was running for re-election.
In Webb's case, however, it's important for the Democratic nominee for president to be aware that Ronald Reagan's Naval secretary only outpolled incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen by about 9,300 votes out of nearly 2.4 million cast in 2006.
Virginians have been closely divided in some races in the past (most notably in the two elections Bill Clinton won and in the election won by Jimmy Carter in 1976), but Republicans have usually enjoyed comfortable margins over Democrats in the general elections.
In a survey of Virginia's voters that concluded Feb. 19, Rasmussen Reports found Obama trailing McCain, 49-44, and found Clinton trailing McCain, 51-41.
Those numbers aren't written in stone, of course, and a lot can happen between March 2 and Nov. 4. But that gives you an idea where the presumptive nominees stand in Virginia right now.
Even so, Webb has some pluses that the American Prospect sees as tempting for either Obama or Clinton -- pluses that could play very well in other states, even if they don't lead to Democratic victory in Virginia.
"He has the military credentials, including two Purple Hearts, and is always up for a fight. As a 62-year-old white man from a 'Southern' state, he would provide any kind of balance needed to a ticket led either by a too-well-known woman senator from New York or a not-very-well-known young black senator from Illinois," says American Prospect.
As for Joe Biden (the other name that came up the most), the reasoning behind selecting him as the running mate would be quite different. Delaware is a tiny state, and it has voted for the Democrats in the last six elections.
So Biden wouldn't be put on the ticket because he could put Delaware in the Democrats' column in November. Most likely, it's already there.
But he could be chosen as running mate for much the same reason Dick Cheney was chosen to be George W. Bush's running mate in 2000 -- gravitas.
Like Bush eight years ago, Obama will need a running mate who has credibility with voters on foreign affairs. Clinton may also need that, in spite of her claims on the campaign trail that she already knows all the world's leaders. Cheney, with his experience as secretary of defense for Bush's father, provided that expertise for Bush in the eyes of the voters.
Because the Democrats have had a poor reputation with the public on foreign policy in recent years -- and because the Republican nominee apparently will be a Vietnam veteran who spent several years in a POW camp and is the son and grandson of Navy admirals -- it probably won't be enough that Clinton is a member of the Senate's Armed Services Committee or that Obama is a member of the Foreign Affairs and Homeland Security Committees.
If the Democrats are looking for someone to bring foreign policy stature to the ticket, that's something Biden could provide.
"Increasingly, Biden became not just a respected presence on the stage, but the only candidate making a concise case for the Democrats on international affairs," says the American Prospect. "Where the other candidates responded to questions of national security with passively phrased expressions of sorrow about the regrettable policies of the Republicans, Biden responded with unadulterated contempt for the neocons who had steered the country so determinedly into a ditch.
"Biden's self-assuredness -- some would call it cockiness -- on foreign affairs is exactly what the Democrats need. No more passive voice. No more convoluted statements about the Bush administration's well-intentioned but poorly managed policies."
Both Biden and Webb could help Obama in another area -- age. Obama will be 47 when the Democrats hold their convention. That's young by presidential standards. Webb will be 62 and Biden will be 65.
My father was a Biden supporter originally. But he doesn't like the idea of Biden as a vice president. He thinks Biden would be better suited for secretary of state or U.N. ambassador. Those would be good jobs for him, but a presidential nominee doesn't traditionally name the secretary of state or U.N. ambassador until after the election has been won. So if he's not on the ticket, Biden will have to make his contribution as a speaker for the nominee on the campaign trail.
Biden's seat is up for election in 2008. But, like Texas and Connecticut, which allowed Lyndon Johnson, Lloyd Bentsen and Joe Lieberman to run for re-election to the Senate and to run for the vice presidency at the same time, Delaware would permit Biden to seek re-election to the Senate and run for the vice presidency. So choosing between the two wouldn't be a consideration for Biden if the presidential nominee asks him to be on the ticket.
The other potential running mates have their pluses and minuses as well.
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, has been mentioned in this blog before. American Prospect observes that she "flubbed" her opportunity on the national stage when she was asked to give the rebuttal to President Bush's State of the Union speech earlier this year.
But despite her drawbacks as a public speaker, Sebelius (who turns 60 before the convention) has been elected governor twice in a devoutly Republican state and could give the Democrats a foothold in a region of the country that hasn't been too hospitable to Democrats.
Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland might help the nominee in a large swing state that appears to be leaning to the Democrats. It also happens to be one of the states that will be holding its presidential primaries on Tuesday, so it will be worth watching to see what Strickland says and does on primary night. If he sounds like he would be interested in the job, he could be on the "short list" in short order.
Sen. Ken Salazar of Colorado could help the Democrats solidify support from Hispanics in a state Democrats are hoping to take away from the Republicans. Although it's been close in Colorado on a few occasions, only Bill Clinton (in 1992) carried the state for the Democrats since Lyndon Johnson's landslide in 1964.
But he has some drawbacks. Salazar only won the seat with 51% of the vote in 2004, and he doesn't have much political experience prior to that. And he just turned 53 today, so he wouldn't provide much of an age benefit for Obama.
Although she's been elected twice (including re-election with 63% of the vote in 2006 -- and she is banned by state law from seeking a third consecutive term), Gov. Janet Napolitano of Arizona doesn't appear likely to swing her state to the Democrats with Arizona's senior senator heading the Republican ticket. Napolitano's age doesn't provide the heft that Obama needs. She will be 51 before Inauguration Day.
So I would have to conclude that she's not a likely choice.
Gov. Brian Schweitzer of Montana seems to be mostly minuses as well. He barely got over 50% of the votes when he was elected governor of the traditionally Republican state in 2004 -- although that was achieved at a time when George W. Bush was carrying Montana by 20 percentage points.
But the governor's office is up for election in 2008, and he would have to choose between being governor or running for vice president.
American Prospect says he "could put his considerable political skills to good use on the national ticket. He's quick, funny, self-effacing, authentic." He also holds some non-traditional Democratic views -- for example, he supports gun rights -- that could help the ticket in more conservative states.
But his age is a drawback (53 by Election Day) and Montana is about as small on the Electoral College list as Delaware is.
So American Prospect concedes that Schweitzer is "a second-tier choice in the veepstakes -- but a first-rate choice for a prime-time speaking slot at the Denver convention."
American Prospect acknowledges that some of the people on the panel "took liberties with their assignment" and made some pretty unlikely suggestions, both serious and not-so-serious.
"Unlike Dick Cheney, nobody suggested themselves," American Prospect said, "or Dick Cheney."
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