Of Front-Runners and Running Mates

The polls have been closed in Virginia, Maryland and D.C. for more than an hour, and it's looking like tonight will be a very big night in the "Potomac Primary" for Barack Obama. Coupled with his victories over the weekend, CNN now has Obama leading Hillary Clinton in delegates, 1,195 to 1,178.

And that count includes the so-called "super-delegates," the office-holders and other bigshots in the Democratic Party who are not bound to support any candidate but are believed to favor the former first lady.

There are still some big states that have yet to vote in their primaries -- Texas and Ohio in March, Pennsylvania in April -- and several smaller states before and after.

But the experts are saying that Obama must now be regarded as the Democrats' front-runner. He has the momentum. U.S. New & World Report wonders if Obama is "the liberal Reagan." And now he has the lead in delegates.

And, while Obama's campaign seems to be a model of stability and efficiency, whose campaign is going through the turmoil of a very public shake-up right now?

If this continues, it won't be long before the talk will be centering around Obama's selection for running mate.

OK, that's getting ahead of things a little. But there's already talk about who will be John McCain's choice for his running mate.

In Human Events, Jennifer Rubin writes in depth about McCain's options at running mate.

There are many factors that go into the choice. Rubin examined the decision that has to be made from several angles. McCain's age (72 at the time of the inauguration) was one of them, although it was only touched on briefly. The conservative credentials of his choice played a more prominent role, and that will be important if McCain dies or resigns.

As I've mentioned before, the vice president became president because of death or resignation about every 13 years between 1841 and 1974. Since it's now been nearly 34 years since the last time that happened, we're statistically overdue.

And, if he wins, McCain would be the oldest non-incumbent to win a presidential election.

His running mate must be judged a little differently than most running mates, although the running mate really is always important. Because some vice presidents (Gerald Ford, Lyndon Johnson, Harry Truman in the last 60 years) do become president. More than one-fifth of our presidents reached the Oval Office without winning a presidential election.

And one of them (Ford) was never elected president or vice president.

And, since the Democrats appear to be on the verge of making history with their presidential nominee (no matter which candidate gets the nomination), it seems certain that the Republican running mate will get more attention than his/her Democratic counterpart.

So it's an important decision that McCain has to make. He has a lot of time to make it, so he can't say he was rushed if he makes a mistake.

"... [W]ith an ill-conceived pick, McCain can pour salt in the wounds of the conservative base," Rubin writes. "With a solid one, he can signal a willingness to build a bridge to the GOP base, enhance his domestic policy credentials and electoral prospects and select a plausible #2 ..."