Anticipating 'Tsunami Tuesday'

"Tsunami Tuesday" is so big, CNN is going to be covering it for 40 solid hours. Starting at 6 a.m. Eastern on Tuesday.

On the Democratic side, the unanswered question is, what will John Edwards' supporters do?

The assumption, before he actually withdrew from the race on Wednesday, was that Edwards' supporters would naturally gravitate to Barack Obama, since both candidates campaigned as agents of change -- and both painted Hillary Clinton as the agent of the establishment.

But when you examine the exit polls in the previous primary and caucus states, you find that the demographics that favored Edwards are demographics where Hillary has always had strong appeal. Edwards' voters are part of her natural base.

Another -- lesser -- recurring theme of Tuesday's primaries is, simply, "home." If it isn't the actual state of one's birth, it's a state where the candidate lived in the past or lives today.

There are four Republicans remaining in the race, and three have a "home" state casting its votes on Tuesday. There are, technically, three Democrats remaining, and each, including Mike Gravel of Alaska, has a "home" state voting.

Only Ron Paul, the libertarian Republican from Texas, does not have a "home" connection on Tuesday. Texas' primary will be held in March.

REPUBLICANS

In the GOP primaries, John McCain appears to be headed to victory in Alabama, American Samoa, his home state of Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma and Tennessee.

Mitt Romney gets the nod in his adopted home states of Massachusetts and Utah.

Mike Huckabee will be a factor in the South -- not just in his native Arkansas, either, although I do expect him to win there. It looks, for example, as if he will make a credible showing in Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. And he might have a strong second-place finish in border states like Missouri and Oklahoma.

There are far fewer caucuses than primaries on Tuesday, but some states have chosen to take that approach to delegate selection. I think Romney's message favors him in the Colorado caucuses (where I think his support may exceed that of McCain and Huckabee combined). I pick McCain in the Alaska, Montana and North Dakota caucuses.

West Virginia's Republicans will be holding a convention on Tuesday to allocate their delegates. That's a dicier proposition, since we're not dealing with primary voters or caucus participants in that state, but I'm going to guess that it will be a two-way split between McCain and Huckabee. Romney could be a factor, but I think the other two will finish ahead of him.

DEMOCRATS

In the Democratic primaries, I believe Clinton will win her first adopted home state, Arkansas, and her current adopted home state, New York. But I think she will lose the state where she was born and raised, Illinois -- her opponent, Obama, represents that state in the Senate and I think he will receive more than 50% of its votes on Tuesday.

In addition to winning Arkansas and New York, I think Clinton will hang on to win in American Samoa, Arizona, Delaware, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Utah.

The movement away from Clinton gives the edge to Obama in Connecticut. I think he will enjoy substantial victories in Georgia and Illinois.

Alabama looks like a tossup on the Democratic side. Based on the findings from earlier polls, the movement has been in Obama's favor.

So the question is whether he's reached his plateau or are there Clinton supporters who may yet be swayed to his side?

I think both Alabama and Missouri will go down to the wire on the Democratic side, so the fluidity of the vote in those states is crucial to determining the winner in each.

In the caucuses, I think it's too close to call in Colorado. I expect Clinton to win in the Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, and North Dakota caucuses.

CALIFORNIA

I haven't mentioned California, to this point, because the state is so large and represents such a huge bloc of delegates in both parties that it is clearly the prize to win on Tuesday. And that means it deserves to be written about by itself, not lumped in with two dozen other states.

Yet from what I've heard -- from public and private sources -- the race is technically too close to call on both sides.

Bear in mind that there is a significant difference in how delegates are awarded in each party. Democrats will award California's delegates proportionally. Republicans will award them on a winner-take-all basis. So, in California (and other states, too), the Republicans will have three candidates on the ballot who will wind up spending millions of dollars between them and receive nothing for their investments.

On the Democratic side, I'm going to predict a narrow victory for Clinton, but I don't know if the division of the delegates will reflect that outcome.

On the Republican side, I'm going to predict that the endorsements last week from Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani will push McCain across the finish line just slightly ahead of Romney.

A wild card in the primaries is the weather. A winter storm is possible in northern California, which could suppress the turnout in places like San Francisco and Sacramento.

The Pacific Coast isn't the only area where weather could influence the outcome. Rain is expected in New York City. And snow is a possibility in the Northeast and the Rocky Mountain states. Even if it isn't snowing, it's probably going to be cold in many locations.

And another question is how the Latino voters will vote. That demographic was the key to Clinton's triumph in neighboring Nevada a couple of weeks back, and McClatchy Newspapers thinks Latinos could hold the key to success for the Democrats in California.

For that matter, as McClatchy observes, there are sizable Hispanic populations in other "Tsunami Tuesday" states as well -- Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, and New York. And, given the racial tension that has existed between blacks and Hispanics for many years (along with the jockeying for position in the party that some journalists have alleged is occurring between the two ethnic groups), that might be a factor that favors Clinton.

In California, where I predict a narrow Clinton win, nearly 11 million residents are Hispanic, representing nearly one-third of the state's population. Blacks account for only 2 million residents, less than 7% of the population.

But the catch is that a far higher percentage of blacks actually vote in elections.

Hispanics, as the fastest-growing ethnic group in America, have the potential to influence the outcome of elections for a generation or more. But they have to participate in greater numbers than they have in recent years in order to wield that kind of influence.

MEDIA MUSINGS

With so many states voting in what amounts to a "national primary," it seems appropriate to take a look at what some of the editorial writers and political beat reporters across the country are saying.

Endorsements for Clinton

Buffalo News: "With President Bush’s record, any new president will represent change. The question is: Who will succeed in effecting it? In our estimation, the edge in the Democratic campaign decidedly goes to Clinton."

Cape Cod (Mass.) Times: "Senator Clinton has endured humiliation and contempt on a Shakespearean scale. Yet she is still standing, still committed to the civic goals she first set for herself at Wellesley. That should tell Democrats something about the inner strength she would bring to the job."

Denver Post: "Clinton's long record of public service has better prepared her to deal with two of this country's greatest challenges: the war in Iraq and the health insurance crisis."

Hartford Courant: "Voters who thought they were getting a fiscal conservative in George W. Bush must be profoundly disappointed. Mrs. Clinton's positions reflect the fiscal discipline her husband managed to effect in the 1990s."

Kansas City Star: "Some critics have focused on the mistakes of her husband’s administration. But if Sen. Clinton is to be held responsible for some of those mistakes -- which is appropriate -- she must also get credit for some of its successes."

Memphis Commercial Appeal: "There are few differences among Democratic candidates about how to improve the lives of Americans. ... Clinton, however, has the experience needed to step into the Oval Office at this critical time and get these jobs done."

New York Daily News: "Based on her experience and her service on behalf of New York, The News backs Hillary Clinton in the full expectation that from here on out she and her husband will abide by standards of fairness -- and, more important, that she intends to draw firm, clear lines should she make it to the White House."

New York Times: "As strongly as we back her candidacy, we urge Mrs. Clinton to take the lead in changing the tone of the campaign. It is not good for the country, the Democratic Party or for Mrs. Clinton, who is often tagged as divisive, in part because of bitter feeling about her husband’s administration and the so-called permanent campaign."

Endorsement for Huckabee

Rolla (Mo.) Daily News: "Huckabee has proven a politician with a religious conscience is not a detriment, but a good, solid attribute."

Endorsements for McCain

Buffalo News: "McCain ... has shown an ability to work across party lines to gain reforms in which he believes, and his steadiness would be a valuable quality in a president."

Cape Cod (Mass.) Times: "Honorable. Bipartisan. Experienced. Those are just some of the attributes that describe Sen. John McCain of Arizona. He has a strength of character that does not waver when the polls suggest that he should."

Chicago Tribune: "One Republican candidate for president dedicated himself to American honor, American duty, long before Sept. 11, 2001. The world of 2008 is the dangerous world John McCain unknowingly spent a military and political career preparing to confront."

Joplin (Mo.) Globe: "McCain, a former prisoner of war in Vietnam, is the only candidate with a consistent record and credibility on the war in Iraq. Although considered a maverick, he appears to be a unifier rather than a divider."

Juneau Empire: "McCain already has given decades of service to his country. He has shown a willingness to fight powerful interests for what he believes in and has shown he has the fortitude and experience to lead this country. He deserves the backing of Alaska Republicans ..."

Kansas City Star: "[McCain] has a very long track record of denouncing business as usual in Washington, which led us to endorse him in the 2000 GOP primary as well. He has been a tireless advocate of campaign finance reform and better ethics in government."

Knoxville (Tenn.) News: "A recent Wall Street Journal article identified McCain's Republicanism as more Theodore Roosevelt than George W. Bush. We think that, after the last eight years, a majority in the nation will be OK with that."

Los Angeles Times: "At a different moment in American history, we would hesitate to support a candidate for president whose social views so substantially departed from those we hold. But in this election, nothing less than America's standing in the world turns on the outcome. Given that, our choice for the Republican nominee in 2008 is sure and heartfelt."

Memphis Commercial Appeal: "Among McCain's opponents, Mitt Romney's business acumen and his executive experience as governor of Massachusetts make him an impressive candidate. On the balance, though, McCain seems to have more to offer. McCain seems to have a broader appeal among moderates and independents, which would be useful in uniting the country behind a set of common goals."

New York Post: "America is at war -- in Iraq and against a global Islamist terror network committed to the nation's destruction. McCain indisputably understands the nature of the threat, and what it will take to defeat it. And he will not flinch."

New York Times: "We have strong disagreements with all the Republicans running for president. ... Still, there is a choice to be made, and it is an easy one. Senator John McCain of Arizona is the only Republican who promises to end the George Bush style of governing from and on behalf of a small, angry fringe."

Oakland Tribune: "McCain has demonstrated the experience, character and leadership needed for the presidency. He is not afraid to speak his mind on key issues, even if his ideas may be unpopular among some members of his own party."

Sacramento Bee: "McCain is a partisan Republican in the mold of Theodore Roosevelt. And, like T.R., he is not a prisoner of doctrinaire thinking or poisonous hyperpartisan politics."

Selma (Ala.) Times Journal: "McCain’s character is impeccable. He has demonstrated that strong character by standing against torture of prisoners of war, although he was tortured unmercifully as POW in Vietnam."

St. Louis Post-Dispatch: "[U]nlike any other candidate in the Republican field, Mr. McCain offers a chance to change the national discourse. He is a Republican in the mold of Barry Goldwater, a principled conservative, not a kleptocratic opportunist. "

Tuscaloosa (Ala.) News: "We disagree with McCain on many domestic issues and we were disappointed by his strong advocacy of an increased American presence in Iraq. Yet we believe that McCain is a level-headed man who would avoid entangling this country in future debacles overseas."

Endorsements for Obama

Chicago Sun-Times: "[T]his newspaper is endorsing a man because of how he makes us feel, the hope he evokes within us, the patriotism that he inspires in us and, most important, his ability to unite Americans, no matter their color, gender or social background."

Chicago Tribune: "Barack Obama is the rare individual who can sit in the U.S. Senate yet have his career potential unfulfilled. He is the Democrat best suited to lead this nation."

Joplin (Mo.) Globe: "Perhaps the greatest appeal of the senator from Illinois, other than a charismatic personality and sincerity in espousing his views, could be that he is being labeled the candidate of change. His Capra-esque campaign promotes the ideas of change and hope from a grassroots base. His is a fresh political voice."

Juneau Empire: "Many people question whether he has enough experience ... to lead the nation. But what would prepare a person for the hardest job in the world? Would an extra decade in the Senate serve to polish or tarnish? For a man so young to go so far shows that he can tackle the challenge of being president. Perhaps his newness represents a risk, but at least it's not the risk of sameness."

Knoxville (Tenn.) News: "Obama ... was challenged early in the campaign for his lack of experience in Washington, but he has deftly turned that criticism into an asset, pointing out that those who got us into war in Iraq and built the deficit had a wealth of political experience."

Los Angeles Times: "In the language of metaphor, Clinton is an essay, solid and reasoned; Obama is a poem, lyric and filled with possibility. Clinton would be a valuable and competent executive, but Obama matches her in substance and adds something that the nation has been missing far too long -- a sense of aspiration."

New York Post: "Obama represents a fresh start. His opponent, and her husband, stand for deja vu all over again -- a return to the opportunistic, scandal-scarred, morally muddled years of the almost infinitely self-indulgent Clinton co-presidency. Does America really want to go through all that once again? It will -- if Sen. Clinton becomes president."

Oakland Tribune: "Obama has a rare combination of youthful optimism and mature sagacity that have made him a national leader and one who would be the best choice for the Democratic presidential nomination."

Rolla (Mo.) Daily News: "What Obama lacks in political experience, he makes up for in charisma."

Sacramento Bee: "Obama's lack of experience at the highest levels of government might lead to mistakes. But that risk is smaller, in our view, than the benefit of moving on from the Bushes and the Clintons, who have been in the White House for longer than some young voters have been alive."

Santa Fe New Mexican: "Hillary Clinton is only one of two outstanding candidates for the Democratic nomination, and The New Mexican endorses the other: Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. Shorter on experience, he also is unsullied by the quid-pro-quo world of Washington."

Selma (Ala.) Times Journal: "We haven't seen indications of Obama flip-flopping for the sake of political collateral. Instead, he has stuck to his beliefs in the face of harsh criticism. He has acknowledged his weaknesses. Obama has stood up for what he believes in, and he has reached across partisan political lines when necessary, despite his liberal ideology. These are marks of a leader ..."

St. Louis Post-Dispatch: "Comets don't come around that often. In January of 1961, Ann Dunham Obama was six weeks pregnant with Barack Obama Sr.'s child when President Kennedy said at his inauguration that 'the torch has been passed to a new generation.' It's that time again."

Tuscaloosa (Ala.) News: "Obama ... continues to impress us with his magnetic leadership qualities. A brilliant and persuasive speaker, he is a unifier who is dedicated to breaking the Washington gridlock that most Americans detest."

Endorsements for Romney

Denver Post: "Romney is the best choice for Republicans because he possesses 'the executive acumen necessary to implement policies that produce results,' especially in the areas of health care and the economy."

Hartford Courant: "Mark Twain said about Wagner that his music 'is better than it sounds.' Mr. Romney is a better leader than his perplexing campaign performance makes him out to be. ... [I]f you throw him a knotty problem that needs to be solved by Friday, he's the candidate we'd bet on to have it done by Tuesday. "

General Political Writing

Cynthia Tucker, Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "When it came to one of the most important issues of our generation, Clinton made the wrong choice. Obama discerned the right course and had the courage to take it."

David Runciman, Boston Globe: "As the presidential primary season enters its critical phase, the air is thick with accusations and counter-accusations that the candidates don't practice what they preach. In what is now an inevitable feature of presidential politics, the leading contenders are desperate to pin on one another the toxic label of hypocrite."

Elizabeth Holmes, Wall Street Journal: "The Republican presidential campaigning rolls on this weekend, with Sen. John McCain working to make headway with the party's stalwarts and Mitt Romney facing renewed attention on his Mormon faith."

Greg Harton, Northwest Arkansas Times: "Parties ought to go back to closed primaries in which only registered Democrats get to vote for the Democratic nominee, and only registered Republicans get to do the same in their party's process."

Jim Tynen, Provo (Utah) Herald: "Barack Obama's rousing speech on Martin Luther King Day showed his potential to redeem America -- or wreck it."

Jim Wooten, Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "John McCain presents a real dilemma for conservatives. ... With a Republican majority in Congress, he’d be a good successor to George W. Bush. With a Democratic majority, which is likely, he’s a crapshoot."

John Kass, Chicago Tribune: "If Sen. Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination and is later elected president, her prospective First Laddie will dance into the White House. Only, Bill Clinton won't be elected this time. He'll be the spouse and therefore untouchable. And that's not only her problem; it's our problem, even if you're not a Democrat."

Kathleen Parker, The Oklahoman: "... [W]hat if Barack Obama were white? What if Hillary Clinton were a man? What if John McCain were a woman? What if Mitt Romney were a black female Baptist? The 'what if' question is useful across the board as voters wrestle with identity politics."

Maureen Dowd, New York Times: At Thursday's Democratic debate, "Suddenly, everyone was in the mood for love. Would the scream team turn into the dream team? ... How could Hollywood not fall in love with Hollywood’s favorite plot? After lots of sparking and sparring, the couple falls into each other’s arms in the last scene."

Michael Barone, U.S. News & World Report: "Just shy of a month ago, after the first votes were cast in Iowa and New Hampshire, it seemed that the Republican Party faced a fluid and fractious nomination contest, while the Democrats faced a clear-cut choice between two not particularly adversarial candidates. What a difference a few weeks can make."

Mickey Hepner, Edmond (Okla.) Sun: "One of the most important traits of a great president is having good judgment. While Hillary may have more experience, it was Obama who showed the best judgment on the most important issue of our time -- the Iraq War."

Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune: "This newspaper will not declare its preference for president until October ... But it's not too early to voice admiration for much of what has unfolded to date in the presidential sweepstakes. Early state voters have narrowed both ... fields to produce two lively contests that bode well for positive change in Washington."

The Oklahoman: "... Super Tuesday's spate of caucuses and primaries ... will award more than 1,000 (Republican) convention delegates. McCain appears in good shape but must reach out to the most conservative Republicans to complete a broad GOP base."

Orange County Register: "Barack Obama benefits most from John Edwards' decision Wednesday to quit the race for the Democratic nomination, according OC Political Pulse's poll of seven interest groups in the county. ... However, many people said the eventual GOP nominee gains the most from Edwards dropping out, including 22% of independent and third-party voters ... [reflecting] an opinion that Edwards would be the Democrat most difficult to beat in November."

Paul Krugman, New York Times: "[John] Edwards, far more than is usual in modern politics, ran a campaign based on ideas. And even as his personal quest for the White House faltered, his ideas triumphed: both candidates left standing are, to a large extent, running on the platform Mr. Edwards built."

Salt Lake Tribune: "The Tribune has endorsed Romney and Clinton. On Tuesday it will be time for Utahns to make the only endorsements that really count, the ones that come from the ballot box."

Susan Eisenhower, Washington Post: "If the Democratic Party chooses Obama as its candidate, this lifelong Republican will work to get him elected and encourage him to seek strategic solutions to meet America's greatest challenges. To be successful, our president will need bipartisan help."