Leap of Faith

This is Leap Year. And today is Leap Day.

What better time to take a leap of faith and see what the God-o-Meter says about the religious conviction of the presidential field?

Conventional wisdom and statistical reality has held that religious conservatives are overwhelmingly in the Republican Party, but, according to the God-o-Meter, the Republicans are on the verge of nominating someone whose religious rating is behind both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Candidates are ranked from 1-10 in the God-o-Meter. Mike Huckabee has made it to 10 a few times, but he has an unfair advantage. He was a Baptist minister earlier in his career; currently, his rating is 9. Longshot Republican Ron Paul rates 7. John McCain's ranking is 5.

On the Democratic side, Clinton has a 9 and Obama has an 8. The only candidate (and the term must be used extremely loosely for this individual) whose ranking is below McCain's would be Democrat Mike Gravel, who has a 4 -- but it must be noted that the God-o-Meter hasn't bothered to adjust Gravel's ranking, up or down, since August 2007.

What will religious conservatives do in November? Will they vote Republican from force of habit? Or will they cross party lines and support a candidate who may or may not share their views on everything, but whose faith is devout?

Perhaps this is part of a larger trend.

Ronald Brownstein writes, in the National Journal, that "a new Democratic coalition is being forged" in this year's primary season.

"[E]xit polls from this year's contests show the Democratic coalition evolving in clear and consistent ways since the 2004 primaries that nominated John Kerry," Brownstein writes. "The party is growing younger, more affluent, more liberal, and more heavily tilted toward women, Latinos, and African-Americans."

Well, let's see. This "new" coalition is made up of young voters (who do not have a strong record of showing up on Election Day), women (who have tended to be Democrats all along), Latinos (who don't have a strong record of showing up on Election Day), and African-Americans (who have been Democrats all along).

Is this the coalition that's going to produce a political shift in the fall?

Talk about a leap of faith.