It's Heating Up For the Democrats

Maureen Dowd of the New York Times makes some good points about the Clinton-Obama battle for the Democratic nomination.

"We’re in another national seminar on gender and race that is teaching us about who we are as we figure out what we want America to be," Dowd writes. "It’s not yet clear which prejudice will infect the presidential contest more -- misogyny or racism."

If nothing else, the Democrats are managing to give the Republicans an unexpected reservoir of ammunition to use in the fall campaign. John McCain can spend the next few months concentrating on his choice for running mate, and the increasingly unified Republicans can start aiming their guns at the Democratic candidates.

It won't matter which one wins the nomination. There will be plenty of targets.

By CNN's latest count, Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton in delegates, 1,253 to 1,211. But, just a few minutes ago, CNN's John King showed the TV audience how it's virtually impossible for either Obama or Clinton to run the table and win all the remaining primaries and caucuses and come away with enough delegates to win the nomination outright.

And this assessment comes the day after Obama won Maryland with 60% of the vote, won Virginia with 64% of the vote and won D.C. with 75% of the vote.

Even so, if Clinton wins in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, that would mean that she swept all of the big state primaries, except for Obama's home stae of Illinois. It's hard for me to imagine the Democrats denying her the nomination under those circumstances.

Gender and race aren't going anywhere. They will remain campaign topics through the convention in Denver -- and probably beyond.

And, as Dowd points out, that may benefit Hillary Clinton in the long run.

Many political observers have credited Clinton's teary moment just before the New Hampshire primary with reviving her campaign after the unexpected loss to Obama in the Iowa caucus less than a week earlier.

If it seems like people are ganging up on Clinton, women voters in upcoming primaries may vote for her because they empathize with her.

"Many women I talk to, even those who aren’t particularly fond of Hillary, feel empathy for her," writes Dowd, "knowing that any woman in a world dominated by men has to walk a tightrope between femininity and masculinity, strength and vulnerability."

That, says Dowd, is "what may give Hillary a shot. When the usually invulnerable Hillary seems vulnerable, many women, even ones who don’t want her to win, cringe at the idea of seeing her publicly humiliated -- again."

Here in Texas, that might be called the Ann Richards effect.

In 1990, Democrat Richards was running for governor. Her Republican opponent, millionaire rancher Clayton Williams, was believed to have an insurmountable lead, but he insisted on shooting himself in the foot on numerous occasions.

Still, it was generally considered that he was leading until one night a few weeks before the election. Williams and Richards found themselves at the same event. Richards smiled gamely and offered her hand to Williams when they bumped into each other. Williams refused to shake it.

A few weeks later, Richards pulled off a narrow victory -- with the apparent help of many Republican women who may not have liked Richards but didn't relish seeing a woman being humiliated in a man's game.

Richards lost her bid for re-election four years later -- to George W. Bush. Bush may not be the smartest governor Texas ever had, but he was smart enough not to make the same mistakes Williams made.

In the scenario outlined by Dowd, Obama is the "the glib golden boy who slides through on charm and a smile."

Dowd points out that, during her husband's presidency, Clinton described herself as "a gender Rorschach test." But, Dowd says, Clinton is a "flawed science experiment" as a presidential candidate.

"Instead of carving out a separate identity for herself, she has become more entwined with Bill," Dowd writes.

"She is running bolstered by his record and his muscle. She touts her experience as first lady, even though her judgment during those years on issue after issue was poor. She says she’s learned from her mistakes, but that’s not a compelling pitch."

CNN will look at the politics of gender and race in depth on Friday night at 10 p.m. Eastern time.

Just in case you haven't had enough of it already.