An Electoral Test for Obama

---

Murphy and Tedisco are in a tight race in New York's 20th.

---

On Tuesday, Barack Obama will have been president for 10 weeks, but he may be facing his first electoral test that day.

At least, that is what John Fund writes in the Wall Street Journal.

Undoubtedly, you are aware of the several Senate seats that became vacant after the election last November. Both the president and the vice president gave up their Senate seats after winning the election, and Hillary Clinton gave up her seat after she was appointed secretary of state by Obama.

New York Gov. David Paterson picked Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand of the 20th District to take Clinton's place, and the seat has been vacant for about two months.

On Tuesday, a special election will be held to pick Gillibrand's successor.

Gillibrand received 53% of the vote in the 20th District when she was elected in 2006, even though her opponent was a four–term incumbent Republican who lost by six percentage points in a Democratic year. She was re–elected in November with 62%.

But a few things are worth remembering.

• Although New York hasn't voted for a Republican for president since 1984, much of the party's margin in the state is concentrated downstate, in New York City.


• The upstate district that was represented by Gillibrand has been represented by Democrats for about six of the last 24 years.


• Until Gillibrand was elected in 2006, no Democrat had won the district since 1990.

The parties' nominees in the special election were chosen by each party's county committees. State Assembly minority leader Jim Tedisco was nominated by the Republicans. Scott Murphy, a businessman, was picked by the Democrats. The Libertarian candidate was taken off the ballot because a technicality disqualified more than half of the signatures on his ballot petition.

The stakes in the election are fairly high, especially for Republicans. RNC Chairman Michael Steele has said it is the first of three "incredibly important" elections for his party.

Polls indicate a close race. Irene Jay Liu writes, in the Albany Times–Union, that Murphy, whose lead has been approximately the margin of error, is making inroads on his opponent.

As Maury Thompson observes for the Glens Falls Post–Star, though, the race still is regarded as too close to call by political analysts, and both parties will be watching Tuesday's results closely to see how the stimulus package and the Obama budget are playing with the voters.

"Should Republicans win, [Obama] will try to chalk it up as no big surprise," Fund writes. "If Democrats prevail, you can bet the White House will herald it as evidence of grass–roots support for its agenda. What's strange is how little confidence the White House seems to have in a Democratic candidate tailor–made for a district Barack Obama carried just five months ago."

David Halbfinger writes, in the New York Times, that the Wall Street bonuses will be factors in the vote.

Will the special election provide the answers to the questions? Or will it raise more questions than it answers?