The Eisenhower Analogy

We've all heard the comparisons of Barack Obama to Abraham Lincoln.

Michael Barone, one of the foremost political scientists in America, sees similarities between Obama and another Republican president — Dwight Eisenhower.

I must admit that it's hard to argue with his logic.

Especially his conclusion, which is as follows: Half a century ago, "many Republicans grumbled that Ike did little to help his party and said, privately, that he was selfish," writes Barone.

"Eisenhower, I suspect, regarded himself as a unique national figure and believed that maximizing his popularity far beyond his party's was in the national interest. Out there in Hawaii, Obama may feel the same way."

People with whom I've discussed Obama's decisions since the election tend to express approval of his Cabinet choices and his policy announcements.

If he is following Ike's lead (even if he's unaware that he's doing so), it may not be the worst thing he can do — from a personal perspective. But he stands to lose some crucial allies in Congress.

Eisenhower's presidency was a little before my time, but, even so, based on what I've read, Barone's assessment is on target.

• Barone correctly points out, for example, that Obama didn't make much of an effort for his fellow Democrats during the campaign and, as a result, may have given many Democratic politicians the impression that "Obama doesn't much care to campaign for anybody but himself."
  
  Likewise, Eisenhower didn't make much of an effort for other Republicans and was regarded as aloof by many of the people in his party.


• Obama first came to the attention of the American public in 2004, when he was asked to give the keynote address at the Democratic national convention that nominated John Kerry for president. The exposure helped Obama in his race that fall for the Senate seat from Illinois.
  
  The speech did not, as most keynote addresses do, draw sharp distinctions between the parties. Instead, as Barone writes, "[i]t was a speech that did a lot for Barack Obama and very little for the Democratic nominee."
  
  Then, as Barone points out, Kerry expressed an interest in being secretary of state — and may have had a reasonable hope of being appointed, in appreciation for giving a "decisive boost" to Obama's career — but was ignored by the president-elect.


• While the selection of Rick Warren to give the invocation at the inauguration has been hailed — Barone himself calls it a "masterstroke" for being a reassuring gesture to evangelical Christians — that choice, Barone acknowledges, "was also felt, predictably, as a slap in the face by those advocates of gay rights and same-sex marriage who want to ostracize those who, like Warren, have publicly disagreed with them."

It's a reasonable analogy.

But, if Obama isn't actively involved in Democratic politics during the midterm elections — worse, if he makes some mistakes and his popularity declines between now and 2010 (and new presidents usually do make mistakes) — with a recession and a two-front war raging, he may experience the downside of the aloof approach, and Republicans may feel they're the beneficiaries of gifts from heaven.

The political legacy of the Eisenhower presidency is that, while Ike's popularity steadily increased through two terms in the White House, his party lost control of the Congress during the midterm elections of 1954 — and the GOP spent the next four decades trying to get it back.